{"id":221898,"date":"2025-04-11T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221898"},"modified":"2025-04-14T03:33:29","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T07:33:29","slug":"chart-advisor-what-is-the-dollar-telling-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-what-is-the-dollar-telling-us\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: What is the Dollar Telling Us?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Manuel Tellechea, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ What is the Dollar Telling Us?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ DXY vs SPX + Correlation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ The VIX is Surging\u2026 but the DXY is Falling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Gold Challenges the Dollar\u2019s Role as a Safe Haven\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

5\/ Semiconductors Test Key Support\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

What Is the Dollar Telling Us?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. dollar has lost momentum just as markets begin to reassess the Fed\u2019s monetary policy stance. The 100 level stands as the last line of defense for the bulls. A decisive break below it could open the door to levels not seen since mid-2021 (~98). A move below the key psychological threshold of 100 could signal a shift in intermarket leadership. Historically, this same zone has acted as a pivot point for rallies in commodities and risk assets. The market is now asking: Will the dollar continue to set the tone?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After falling from its 2022 high (~114), the DXY has traded within a broad range where markets felt comfortable pushing risk assets to new highs. The bounce off the late-2024 lows failed to reclaim the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, reinforcing a medium-term bearish narrative. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current key support lies between 100 and 101\u2014a psychologically and technically significant zone that has provided a base on several occasions (May 2022, April 2023, December 2023, and now in April 2025). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

DXY vs SPX + Correlation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the First Time in Months, the Dollar and the S&P 500 Are Falling in Tandem \u2014 A Sign of Structural Risk-Off <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current positive correlation \u2014 now at 0.66 \u2014 appears to be more a reflection of macroeconomic stress than a sign of healthy alignment. When the dollar and equities stop acting as offsets, the message is usually clear: investors are heading for the exits. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\ud83d\udd3b Both assets are falling: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • The DXY is losing momentum after failing to hold the breakout above 106\u2013107.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The SPX is also pulling back from all-time highs (~5300).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • This kind of simultaneous decline is unusual, as historically, one tends to rise when the other falls (risk-on vs. risk-off behavior).\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The correlation indicator confirms it: USD and SPX have been moving in sync. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • This level of correlation is unusually high for two assets that typically exhibit an inverse relationship.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Historically, extreme correlations like this tend to reverse sharply.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83e\udde9 How Should We Interpret This Tandem Sell-Off? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83c\udd70\ufe0f Scenario 1: Flight to Cash <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Investors are liquidating both equities and dollars \u2014 a sign of extreme risk aversion. Capital is moving directly into cash or alternative safe havens (gold, sovereign bonds, etc.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \ud83c\udd71\ufe0f Scenario 2: Broad-Based Macro Repricing <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Markets are simultaneously reassessing: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • The rate cycle (fading optimism over cuts).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • The economic outlook (rising concerns about a global slowdown).\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        This dual repricing is driving downside pressure on both the dollar (loss of carry advantage) and equities (falling earnings expectations). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

        The VIX is Surging\u2026 but the DXY is Falling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Despite a sharp spike in volatility, the DXY is not responding with strength as it did in previous crises. This suggests that the market may be interpreting current risk dynamics as qualitatively different, or that the dollar is no longer seen as an unconditional safe haven. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        If downward pressure on the DXY persists while the VIX remains elevated, we could witness a breakdown of key support in the U.S. dollar index \u2014 reinforcing the idea of a structural shift in intermarket leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

        Courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        This breaks the traditional relationship between these two indicators and could be interpreted as: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • A sign of structural weakness in the USD (a potential loss of leadership).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • A shift in preferred safe havens: flows may be rotating into long-duration bonds, gold, or even physical cash (USD cash, not the index).\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • A case of liquidity stress or market dislocation, where asset classes stop reacting in a synchronized manner.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

          Gold Challenges the Dollar\u2019s Role as a Safe Haven\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Across multiple cycles (2001, 2008, 2020), there has been a clear negative correlation: when the dollar falls, gold rises. Of Course, this is typical behavior since gold is priced in USD, a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

          Courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Since 2022 a partial breakdown in that Relationship. Even during periods of dollar strength, gold has continued to rise aggressively, especially from 2023 to 2025. This suggests that gold no longer relies solely on dollar weakness to appreciate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Potential drivers behind this dynamic include: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Expectations of structural inflation.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Growing distrust in traditional financial assets.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Reserve accumulation by non-Western central banks.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            5\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

            Steepening After Inversion \u2014 What the Bond Market Is Telling Us\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \ud83d\udcca Technical Take: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            The 10Y\u20132Y yield spread has emerged from a deep inversion. The curve reached a low of -1.06%, one of the deepest inversions in recent decades. It now sits at +0.55%, confirming a return to positive slope (steepening).This is typically the second phase of the yield curve cycle \u2014 when the curve un-inverts right before or during a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

            Courtesy of StockCharts.com<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            2. Historical context: post-inversion \u2260 relief. In previous cycles (2000, 2006, 2019), the yield curve normalized before equity markets experienced significant drawdowns. A steepening curve has historically been a lagging signal, not a sign of resolution. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Intermarket signals appear to be aligning: a weakening dollar, a yield curve steepening after a historic inversion, and gold pushing to new highs. Taken together, these moves suggest that the market may be entering a new phase\u2014one potentially defined by rising risk aversion, a shift in macro leadership, and a redefinition of traditional safe-haven assets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            However, the decisive factor may lie in the political arena: the course the United States takes on fiscal, monetary, and trade policy\u2014including the potential implementation of new tariffs\u2014could ultimately determine the next major move in global markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

            —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

            Originally posted 11 April 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            The U.S. dollar has lost momentum just as markets begin to reassess the Fed\u2019s monetary policy stance. 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The 100 level stands as the last line of defense for the bulls. A decisive break below it could open the door to levels not seen since mid-2021 (~98). A move below the key psychological threshold of 100 could signal a shift in intermarket leadership. Historically, this same zone has acted as a pivot point for rallies in commodities and risk assets. 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