{"id":221868,"date":"2025-04-10T14:47:52","date_gmt":"2025-04-10T18:47:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221868"},"modified":"2025-04-10T14:55:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T18:55:00","slug":"high-conviction-ppi-trade-for-tomorrow-yes-at-2-5-no-at-3-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/high-conviction-ppi-trade-for-tomorrow-yes-at-2-5-no-at-3-5\/","title":{"rendered":"High Conviction PPI Trade for Tomorrow: Yes at 2.5%, No at 3.5%: April 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A forecast contract trade that I like for tomorrow\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI) release is buying the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=2e1776b0%7C16%3A0C%3A5C%3A76%3A67%3AC4&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=727520260%7C20250411%7C2.5\">Yes<\/a>\u201d at the 2.5% threshold and the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=2e1776b0%7C16%3A0C%3A5C%3A76%3A67%3AC4&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=727520260%7C20250411%7C3.5\">No<\/a>\u201d at the 3.5% level. The forecast contract combination costs a total of $1.54 and would be profitable if tomorrow\u2019s print comes in anywhere from 2.6% to 3.5%, paying out a dollar on each side for a total of $2.00. Meanwhile, the consensus estimate is at 3.3% and February\u2019s result came in at 3.2%. My expectation, however, is at 3.1%, meaningfully below projections, driven by a plunge in energy costs. This is a high-conviction call as I don\u2019t envision a scenario where tomorrow\u2019s print arrives below 2.6% or above 3.5%. But folks, markets are like sports and anything can happen.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"126\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-april-10-FT.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if March PPI will exceed 2.5%\" class=\"wp-image-221870 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-april-10-FT.jpg 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-april-10-FT-300x61.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/126;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"129\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-april-10-FT.jpg\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if March PPI will exceed 3.5%\" class=\"wp-image-221871 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-april-10-FT.jpg 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-april-10-FT-300x62.jpg 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/129;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 10, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A forecast contract trade that I like for tomorrow\u2019s Producer Price Index (PPI) release is buying the \u201cYes\u201d at the 2.5% threshold and the \u201cNo\u201d at the 3.5% level.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[12698,18274,4505],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221868","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-energy-costs","16":"tag-forecasttrader","17":"tag-producer-price-index","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 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