{"id":221816,"date":"2025-04-09T12:10:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T16:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221816"},"modified":"2025-04-10T10:27:59","modified_gmt":"2025-04-10T14:27:59","slug":"markets-slide-close-to-the-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/markets-slide-close-to-the-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Echoes of Power: Trade Moves Driving Us Closer to the Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>On this episode of <em>Midweek Minute<\/em>, Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer to unpack how trade tensions and policy ripples are rattling Wall Street. With markets teetering, they ask the big question: are we closer to the bottom than anyone\u2019s willing to admit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Echoes of Power: Trade Moves Driving Us Closer to the Bottom\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=9pz8y-187705b-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-243\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 243<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to <em>Midweek Markets.<\/em> I&#8217;m Jeff Praissman. My guest today is Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy. Scott, thanks for joining us. How are you doing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m glad to be here, Jeff. These are some exciting times we&#8217;re going through right now. Thanks for having me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-0\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Yeah, no\u2014our pleasure. It&#8217;s been one week since Liberation Day, and the markets have certainly reacted to the tariffs. But have we hit capitulation yet, or are we not there?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-0\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s really tough to say, because it certainly looked like at the end of last week we could have been teetering on that point\u2014and even earlier this week, as we saw the VIX finally break out above 40, even above 50. And when you look historically\u2014the VIX was launched back in the mid-\u201990s\u2014when we see that big spike, that breakout, it typically signals capitulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, every time we go through something like this\u2014whether it was the dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, 2018, COVID\u2014we always say, <em>\u201cIt\u2019s not the same, it\u2019s not the same, this time is different.\u201d<\/em> And yet, we see similar results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time <em>might<\/em> be a little different, only because we now live in a time where, literally at any second, we can get a tweet that turns the market on its head. We haven\u2019t really experienced that before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I\u2019d say, just from a trader\u2019s perspective and based on my experience, we are closer to the bottom than not. But I\u2019m not certain we\u2019ve seen that <em>absolute<\/em> capitulation yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-1\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>That kind of leads me to ask\u2014what are the best- and worst-case scenarios over the next few weeks for the U.S. markets? Obviously, capitulation might be the worst, but&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-1\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m just as concerned about what\u2019s happening in the bond market as I am about equities. Over the last couple of days, we&#8217;ve seen massive selling\u2014whether it&#8217;s sovereign selling, China, whomever\u2014selling our treasuries. The 10-year yield has gone from basically 3.80 to\u2014I think it hit 4.50 earlier today. It\u2019s backed off that a bit now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That could be a sign of capitulation right there: whether it\u2019s sovereigns or others, they\u2019re just selling to raise capital, whatever the reason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But that concerns me, because when the market\u2019s going down, rates are going higher, and inflation isn\u2019t really coming down\u2014it all adds up to a scenario that isn\u2019t very optimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I don\u2019t mean to sound like Pollyanna or anything here, but I think we just need to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-2\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>And which markets stand to lose the most from these tariffs? The U.S.? Should we lump in Canada, Mexico, Europe, or Asia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-2\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short term\u2014probably Asia, and to some extent Europe. But down the road\u20143, 6, 9 months from now\u2014we\u2019re going to feel the effects here. And at that point, it really isn\u2019t going to matter. It\u2019s not a tit-for-tat thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s not about how painful it is for the rest of the world\u2014it\u2019s about how painful it is for the U.S. and what it\u2019s doing to our economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the short run, the impact may be felt elsewhere. In the longer run, it could be pretty painful here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jeff-praissman-3\"><strong>Jeff Praissman<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Scott, thank you for your input\u2014really appreciate it. This is Scott Bauer, CEO of Prosper Trading Academy, and I\u2019m Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers in our <em>Midweek Market Report.<\/em> Thank you, Scott.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-scott-bauer-3\"><strong>Scott Bauer<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks, Jeff.<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On this episode of Midweek Minute, Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer to unpack how trade tensions and policy ripples are rattling Wall Street. With markets teetering, they ask the big question: are we closer to the bottom than anyone\u2019s willing to admit?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":914,"featured_media":221817,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[1826,7083,14768,6988,671,7590,17708,1584,10995,19056,460,19057,18379,11121,199,7077,16701,317],"contributors-categories":[13576,16315],"class_list":{"0":"post-221816","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-bond-market","10":"tag-capitulation","11":"tag-economic-uncertainty","12":"tag-financial-markets","13":"tag-global-markets","14":"tag-investor-sentiment","15":"tag-jeff-praissman","16":"tag-market-trends","17":"tag-market-volatility","18":"tag-midweek-markets","19":"tag-podcast","20":"tag-policy-impact","21":"tag-scott-bauer","22":"tag-stock-market-analysis","23":"tag-tariffs","24":"tag-trade-policy","25":"tag-trading-insights","26":"tag-vix","27":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","28":"contributors-categories-prosper-trading-academy"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Echoes of Power: Trade Moves Driving Us Closer to the Bottom<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On this episode of Midweek Minute, Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer to unpack how trade tensions and policy ripples are rattling Wall Street....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221816\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Echoes of Power: Trade Moves Driving Us Closer to the Bottom | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On this episode of Midweek Minute, Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer to unpack how trade tensions and policy ripples are rattling Wall Street. 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