{"id":221726,"date":"2025-04-08T11:00:39","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T15:00:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221726"},"modified":"2025-04-09T03:53:58","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T07:53:58","slug":"chart-advisor-t-day-take-two","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-t-day-take-two\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: T-Day (Take Two)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Jay Woods, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Your Weekly Roadmap with Jay Woods, CMT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0T-Day\u00a0(Take Two)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/\u00a0A Manic Monday?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0VIX Over 40<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

T-Day (Take Two)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

UNCERTAINTY\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No, this isn\u2019t last week\u2019s newsletter – it just rings louder today. Only this time it screams from a valley that is 10% lower than where we mentioned it last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLiberation Day\u201d came and went and it turned into more of a \u201cLiquidation Day\u201d as the tariffs implemented were far worse than had been projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market spoke and didn\u2019t like what it heard out of Washington. I discussed that immediate reaction on Thursday with NYSE TV Live\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0on CNBC last Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now we wait again after suffering back-to-back days of historical losses in the S&P 500. The only other times, going back to the inception of the current S&P 500 in the early 1950\u2019s, the index lost over -10.3% or more over two consecutive trading days were in 2020 (Covid), 2008 (Great Financial Crisis) and 1987 (Stock Market Crash).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders will be watching the newswire and social media feeds for headlines all week. Let\u2019s see what comes of the next tariff deadline when things are to be implemented on April 9th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T-Day (Take Two). <\/strong>Let\u2019s try this again. Last week we hoped the event on April 2nd would give the market and its participants clarity. What we got were deeper and more widespread tariffs than anyone expected and, as a result, thrown right into a major trade war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The numbers shocked even the most pessimistic among us as they were far worse than anything anticipated. Questions about the\u00a0math behind it<\/a>\u00a0still linger and confuse most top economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will things get walked back? Will this lead to fruitful negotiations among those on the list? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far China has reciprocated with tariffs of their own and Vietnam wants to negotiate. It feels like a game of chicken and the American investor is the passenger on this crazy car ride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A Manic Monday?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Manic Monday? <\/strong>When you look at market history and other crises, none have been more avoidable and self-inflicted as this current crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The markets closed on the lows over the last two days leaving us susceptible to a far greater panic if nothing is resolved or at least tempered by Monday\u2019s opening. Traders will be monitoring\u00a0circuit breaker levels<\/a>\u00a0to watch for potential thresholds that may cause a halt\u00a0in trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I will post those levels to\u00a0my Twitter page<\/a>\u00a0on Monday morning for those that want exact numbers. We have yet to see a 7% threshold breached since Covid when they triggered four times at the 7% level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we hit a circuit breaker of 7% and 13% we pause trading for 15 minutes. If we hit the 20% threshold then we close immediately. After 3:25, only a 20% drawdown will stop trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want to win a bet with someone, bet them that we will never see the likes of October 16th, 1987\u2019s Black Monday again. That day the S&P 500 fell -20.4% and given the rules of today we stop at -20%. The Dow, however, fell -22.6% (507.99 points) and could surpass that given that index of 30 stocks is not involved in the circuit breaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

VIX Over 40<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX over 40!\u00a0<\/strong>The\u00a0VIX<\/a>\u00a0is also known as the fear index. When it hits historical extremes it is generally a sign of near capitulation and a potential\u00a0market bottom. Let\u2019s look at some instances where the VIX traded over 40*.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

October 2008 \u2013 Global Financial Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Peak: 89.53 on October 24, 2008<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Bottom: Not until March 2009, but\u2026mini bottom. After the October VIX spike, markets bounced short-term. Capitulation waves occurred multiple times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nota Bene – VIX remained elevated above 40 for months during the crisis. It wasn\u2019t a single spike event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 2011 \u2013 U.S. Debt Ceiling \/ Europe Debt Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Peak: 48.00 on August 8, 2011<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Capitulation: Around 1,100, followed by a bottoming process into October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Context: S&P downgraded U.S. credit rating. Sharp drop in equities led to VIX surging. Markets stabilized in the following weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 2018 \u2013 Trump tariffs \/ China \/ Eagles Super Bowl Victory<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Spike: 50.30 on February 6, 2018<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Drop: 10% correction, bottomed near 2,530<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX spike marked the exact low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

March 2020 \u2013 COVID Crash<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Peak: 82.69 on March 16, 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Bottom: 2,237 on March 23, 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Context: Pandemic fears, economic shutdowns. The spike in the VIX came just before the final flush lower in stocks. Markets began recovering shortly after.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

August 2024 – Japan Yen Carry Trade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

VIX Spike: 65.73 on August 5th, 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 dropped -9.8%, S&P bottomed at 5119.26<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spike coincided with a noticeable near-term low only to be broken last Friday <\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Credit – Bloomberg data and Freedom Capital Markets research<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently this is quite similar to 2018 headline-wise. We shall see how it shakes out and history deems it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reality of current market action is that some of the biggest rallies one can experience are with a high VIX and stocks trading below their 200-day moving averages. That set-up is in place for a quick rip-your-face-off rally. The question is – can one catch this falling knife? If one does, the quick snap back rally could be quite rewarding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continue Reading on\u00a0Freedom Capital Markets…<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 8th of April 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Jay Woods, CMT Your Weekly Roadmap with Jay Woods, CMT 1\/\u00a0T-Day\u00a0(Take Two) 2\/\u00a0A Manic Monday? 3\/\u00a0VIX Over 40 Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":221728,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,14,5,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[5049,910,317],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-221726","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-dow-2","19":"tag-sp-500","20":"tag-vix","21":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: T-Day (Take Two) | 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