{"id":221618,"date":"2025-04-04T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T16:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221618"},"modified":"2025-04-23T13:11:29","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:11:29","slug":"what-did-you-expect-them-to-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-did-you-expect-them-to-do\/","title":{"rendered":"What Did You Expect Them To Do?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Can you remember a day when the monthly jobs report was an afterthought?&nbsp; I\u2019ve already been asked multiple times today about China\u2019s retaliation to US tariffs on their imports.&nbsp; And, after a mid-morning plunge reversed somewhat, stocks fell again after Chair Powell seemed disinclined to cut rates during tariff uncertainty.&nbsp; What else did you expect them to do?&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The announcement that China intends to impose <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-gb\/news\/world\/china-hits-back-hard-in-global-trade-war-with-tariffs-on-us-goods\/ar-AA1CiN2q?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">additional 34% tariffs on US goods<\/a>, matching the increase proposed by President Trump on Wednesday, seemed to catch markets by surprise.&nbsp; This was the first of the \u201cwhat else did you expect them to do?\u201d moments today.&nbsp; I suppose that I shouldn\u2019t have been quite so surprised at the reaction, considering how skittish markets have become along with the relative lack of liquidity in the pre-market ahead of an employment report.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The jobs report itself did little to change market sentiment, despite a startling increase in March Nonfarm Payrolls.&nbsp; Those increased by 228,000, well above the 140k consensus.&nbsp; Some of that bounce was offset by February\u2019s 151k revised lower to 117k, and a further downward -14K revision to January, but that is still an unexpected pickup in payrolls.&nbsp; However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked up to 4.2% from last month\u2019s 4.1%, which was also the expectation.&nbsp; I wouldn\u2019t say that the numbers were ignored, but their usual importance was superseded by the global angst about tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That angst has translated into recession signals.&nbsp; Bond yields are off their earlier lows &#8212; 2-year Treasuries are down about 5 basis point at midday, but about 15bp above its low, while the 10-year is down about 9 bp, about 7bp above its nadir \u2013 but the recent plunge in yields is yet another sign of concern.&nbsp; Indeed, some of the decline in yields can be explained by safe haven demand, but a 30bp drop in 2- and 10-year yields in just two days reflects a greater underlying concern.&nbsp; Fed Funds futures are now indicating the likelihood for four 25bp rate cuts this year, up from three last week, with the first cut priced in for June instead of July.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the recession concerns, in a speech in Virginia today, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.barrons.com\/livecoverage\/jerome-powell-speech-fed-jobs-report-tariffs\/card\/read-powell-s-prepared-remarks-HTnQA9fBZE03j2OZMTxz\">Chair Powell said<\/a>,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>We are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Essentially, the Fed will \u201cwait and see\u201d the effects of tariffs before adjusting rates.&nbsp; Again, \u201cwhat did you expect them to do?\u201d&nbsp; No one has true clarity into how the tariffs might truly play out \u2013 stocks bounced after reports emerged that Vietnam would like to negotiate a situation where they aren\u2019t subject to tariffs \u2013 but it is quite clear that some level of rising prices is to be expected.&nbsp; It would reward investors if those price hikes can be abated through negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another \u201cwhat did you expect them to do?\u201d&nbsp; involves the jump in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX).&nbsp; Today move to, and at one point, through the 40 level was a big \u201ctell\u201d.&nbsp; We had largely avoided the \u201cget me out!\u201d blast in VIX until today, but now we got that sharp spike in the index and the curve is generally inverted throughout:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-futures-term-structure-today-yellow-top-graph-yesterday-orange-top-1-week-ago-red-top-with-changes-1-day-orange-bottom-graph-and-1-week-purple-bottom\"><strong><em>VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (yellow, top graph), Yesterday (orange, top), 1-Week Ago (red, top); with Changes: 1-Day (orange, bottom graph) and 1-Week (purple, bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"942\" height=\"521\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-5.png\" alt=\"VIX Futures Term Structure, Today (yellow, top graph), Yesterday (orange, top), 1-Week Ago (red, top); with Changes: 1-Day (orange, bottom graph) and 1-Week (purple, bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-221620 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-5.png 942w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-5-700x387.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-5-300x166.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-5-768x425.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 942px) 100vw, 942px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 942px; aspect-ratio: 942\/521;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The persistently high levels of VIX futures can be interpreted as the market\u2019s response to the removal of the perceived \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/was-this-the-trump-put\/\">Trump Put<\/a>.\u201d<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>&nbsp; If you thought that the administration would backstop markets, then your need to purchase downside protection was effectively outsourced.&nbsp; Why buy a put if you\u2019re getting one for free?&nbsp; Unfortunately, the President, Treasury Secretary, and Commerce Secretary all have had numerous opportunities to mollify nervous investors, yet none have done so.&nbsp; Therefore, it is reasonable for investors to assume that the market-friendly policies that we came to expect from the first Trump administration are not in evidence this time around.&nbsp; And regarding the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/fixed-income\/equity-investors-get-over-yourselves-fed-put-edition\/...?query=fed%20put&amp;query_id=j6q_V2rbQBeehVSjGlPNuQ&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=j6q_V2rbQBeehVSjGlPNuQ\">Fed Put<\/a>\u201d, that might still be in effect, but Powell\u2019s comments make it far from clear that they are willing to exercise it anytime soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Have a good and peaceful weekend.&nbsp; Go UConn!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/was-this-the-trump-put\/\">Last week<\/a>, we questioned whether the put was exercised after some market-friendly comments.&nbsp; It\u2019s now obvious that it wasn\u2019t<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can you remember a day when the monthly jobs report was an afterthought?\u00a0 I\u2019ve already been asked multiple times today about China\u2019s retaliation to US tariffs on their imports.\u00a0 And, after a mid-morning plunge reversed somewhat, stocks fell again after Chair Powell seemed disinclined to cut rates during tariff uncertainty.\u00a0 What else did you expect them to do?\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":185293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[19018,10995,19017,17691,18864],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-221618","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-china-tariffs-retaliation","15":"tag-market-volatility","16":"tag-powell-rate-stance","17":"tag-recession-signals","18":"tag-vix-spike","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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