{"id":221598,"date":"2025-04-04T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221598"},"modified":"2025-04-07T10:51:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-07T14:51:53","slug":"forecast-contracts-price-in-three-fed-cuts-this-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contracts-price-in-three-fed-cuts-this-year\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts Price in Three Fed Cuts This Year: April 4, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Investors have responded to higher levels of economic uncertainty and market volatility by increasing their expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions this year. But the potential inflationary impact of a global trade war may limit the extent of cuts, while on the other hand, an ailing economy with risks of job losses may compel the Fed to ease policy in a rush. At the moment, our IBKR ForecastTrader prediction market prices approximately three 25-basis point decreases in the US Fed Funds Target Rate, as the 3.625% threshold for December offers \u201cYes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=2e1776b0%7C16%3A0C%3A5C%3A76%3A67%3AC4&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=658663572%7C20251210%7C3.625\">contract <\/a>answers at $0.43 and $0.55, corresponding to 43% odds that the Fed cuts two times or less this year and 55% odds that it cuts three or more times by year end, since the current mid-point rate is 4.375%. Meanwhile, because this contract expires near the end of the year, investors on either side will collect interest-like incentive coupons for more than eight months at an annualized rate of 3.83%<sup>1<\/sup> on the market value of their open positions as probabilities shift. If you\u2019re a hawk, you may favor the \u201cYes\u201d answer here while doves may favor the \u201cNo\u201d answer. Furthermore, additional thresholds below and above 3.625% offer additional opportunities for speculators and hedgers alike who want to focus on multiple interest rate levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"113\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1-1100x113.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if fed funds target rate will be set above 3.625% on December 10\" class=\"wp-image-221601 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1-1100x113.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1-768x79.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1.png 1226w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/113;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"552\" height=\"494\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-1.png\" alt=\"Pricing of fed funds IBKR ForecastTrader Contract\" class=\"wp-image-221602 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-1.png 552w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-1-300x268.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 552px) 100vw, 552px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 552px; aspect-ratio: 552\/494;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 4, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Payments equivalent to interest in the form of an incentive coupon subject to variation with benchmark rates.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Investors have responded to higher levels of economic uncertainty and market volatility by increasing their expectations of Federal Reserve rate reductions this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":164038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,9,26,3],"tags":[5462,850,10995],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221598","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-fed-funds","14":"tag-interest-rates","15":"tag-market-volatility","16":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - 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Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contracts-price-in-three-fed-cuts-this-year\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecast-contracts-price-in-three-fed-cuts-this-year\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Forecast Contracts Price in Three Fed Cuts This Year: 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2022\/10\/fed-reserve-building-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=221598"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221598\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/164038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=221598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=221598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=221598"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=221598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}