{"id":221563,"date":"2025-04-03T13:00:38","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T17:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221563"},"modified":"2025-04-23T13:11:30","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:11:30","slug":"liberation-conflagration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/liberation-conflagration\/","title":{"rendered":"Liberation Conflagration"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>One thing is clear from yesterday\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement \u2013the market has decided that there is pretty much no way to spin it as a positive.&nbsp; Thus, here we are with a substantial selloff on our hands, abetted somewhat by traders whose commitment to buying every dip left them wrong-footed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-markets-pricing-liberation-day-as-buy-the-news\/\">We wrote yesterday<\/a> that traders seemed to be pricing in a \u201csell the rumor, buy the news\u201d scenario.&nbsp; The probability of outcomes indicated by S&amp;P 500 Index options expiring today and tomorrow showed peaks above at-money levels. In other words, speculators became more concerned with missing a rally than protecting against a drop.&nbsp; Remember, thrice this week we saw early selling abate quickly, which was seen as yet another \u201cbuy the dip\u201d opportunity by aggressive traders.&nbsp; Some must have thought that a bottom was in place.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet we also pointed out a significant concern about a \u201cbuy the news\u201d outcome \u2013 there was no clear consensus on what might be considered \u201cgood\u201d or \u201cbad\u201d.&nbsp; We normally go into a \u201cknown unknown\u201d type of event, like earnings, a Fed meeting, or an economic report, with a clear consensus for what outcomes might be considered positive or negative for asset prices.&nbsp; In this case, the range of potential outcomes was so wide and the administration was so tight-lipped about their plans that it was impossible to state a clear set of desired or consensus outcomes for the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s why the first move was up when \u201creciprocal tariffs\u201d was mentioned.&nbsp; That sounded rather benign.&nbsp; At the time, one of my colleagues reminded me of my perpetual admonition to our trading desk after an FOMC announcement: \u201cthe first move is often the wrong move.\u201d &nbsp;This time it certainly was, and as soon as the magnitude of the tariffs was visibly displayed, the reality became clear \u2014 this was not going to helpful for prices or economic output.&nbsp; We could see in black and white that the tariffs were quite far-reaching and combined some amount of baseline tariffs and variable rates.&nbsp; Again, while we didn\u2019t have a clear delineation of good\/bad, or positive\/negative, there was no real way to interpret those tables in a market-friendly manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We then tried to learn more during <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=H6mXli-W6hs&amp;t=276s\">an interview with Treasury Secretary<\/a> Bessent on Bloomberg.&nbsp; His comments were spectacularly unhelpful.&nbsp;&nbsp; He admitted to being unsure about why Canada and Mexico were left off the charts (the administration did decide to honor goods and services covered by the USMCA, except autos), claimed not to care about after-hours market movements, &nbsp;and asserted that the selloff was \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=H6mXli-W6hs&amp;t=276s\">a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem<\/a>\u201d.&nbsp; He also said that we\u2019re \u201cgoing to go to the warning track\u201d about a potential debt ceiling breach in May or June.&nbsp; Nervous traders wanted to hear something to assuage them, and nothing of that nature was forthcoming.&nbsp; Commerce Secretary Lutnick made the rounds this morning, hitting a wide range of financial and mainstream media outlets, but his comments also failed to mollify nervous global investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, the tariffs aren\u2019t even truly reciprocal, though they are described that way.&nbsp; Instead, they are essentially calculated by the US trade deficit with each country, divided by total imports from that country (the math is on <a href=\"https:\/\/ustr.gov\/issue-areas\/reciprocal-tariff-calculations\">the USTR website<\/a>), subject to a minimum of 10%.&nbsp; This too has not helped the market mood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, we find ourselves staring at significant dislocations across a wide range of asset classes.&nbsp; We have SPX -3.8% at midday, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) -4.4% lower, and the Russell 2000 (RTY) down by -5.5%.&nbsp; The US Dollar has lost over 3 yen and 2 Euro cents this morning.&nbsp; Part of that move is caused by plunging bond yields, with the 2-year yielding 13 basis points less than yesterday and the 10-year down -8.5bp.&nbsp; Some of that move is caused by increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.&nbsp; Here is just one example from the IBKR Forecast Trader:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-forecast-contract-by-forecastex-llc-will-the-us-fed-funds-target-rate-be-set-above-4-125-at-the-fomc-meeting-ending-may-7-th-2025\"><strong><em>Forecast Contract by ForecastEx LLC: Will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 4.125% at the FOMC meeting ending May 7<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"846\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-7.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract by ForecastEx LLC: Will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 4.125% at the FOMC meeting ending May 7th, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221564 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-7.png 846w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-7-700x530.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-7-300x227.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-7-768x581.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 846px) 100vw, 846px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 846px; aspect-ratio: 846\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20250507%7C4.125&amp;detail=contract_details\"><em>IBKR ForecastTrader<\/em><\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Amidst all today\u2019s volatility, we have yet another potential market mover on tap for tomorrow morning \u2013 the March employment report.&nbsp; Consensus expectations \u2013 remember them? \u2013 are for an increase of 140,000 Nonfarm Payrolls, down from 151k in February, and an Unemployment Rate that will remain at 4.1%.&nbsp; The IBKR Probability Lab once again shows a slight bias toward a bounce, though far less pronounced than yesterday \u2013 and at far lower levels.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-april-4-th-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"575\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8-1100x575.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4th, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221566 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8-1100x575.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8-700x366.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-8.png 1159w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/575;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-april-4-th-2025-as-of-april-2-nd-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025, as of April 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"953\" height=\"355\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-6.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4th, 2025, as of April 2nd, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221565 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-6.png 953w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-6-700x261.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-6-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/image-6-768x286.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 953px) 100vw, 953px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 953px; aspect-ratio: 953\/355;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One thing is clear from yesterday\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement \u2013the market has decided that there is pretty much no way to spin it as a positive.\u00a0 Thus, here we are with a substantial selloff on our hands, abetted somewhat by traders whose commitment to buying every dip left them wrong-footed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":218203,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18996,5780,18995,18648,18974],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-221563","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-fed-rate-expectations","15":"tag-market-selloff","16":"tag-spx-decline","17":"tag-tariff-impact","18":"tag-trader-sentiment","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Liberation Conflagration | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"One thing is clear from yesterday\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement \u2013the market has decided that there is pretty much no way to spin it as...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/221563\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Liberation Conflagration | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One thing is clear from yesterday\u2019s \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement \u2013the market has decided that there is pretty 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