{"id":221552,"date":"2025-04-03T12:45:07","date_gmt":"2025-04-03T16:45:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221552"},"modified":"2025-04-03T13:56:13","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T17:56:13","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-march-unemployment-rate-wont-exceed-4-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contract-opinion-march-unemployment-rate-wont-exceed-4-4\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: March Unemployment Rate Won\u2019t Exceed 4.4%: April 3, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A monthly unemployment rate increase of over 0.3% is historically rare, occurring in just 40 of the last 925 job reports going back to 1948, or 4.3% of the occurrences. Meanwhile, tomorrow\u2019s print is expected to serve an unchanged 4.1% rate from February, according to the consensus estimate. But the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20250404%7C4.4\">Contract<\/a> asking, \u201cWill the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.4% in March 2025,\u201d offers the \u201cNo\u201d answer at what I believe is an undervalued $0.81, corresponding to an 81% probability that the unemployment rate will not come in above 4.4%. I also took into account the lower threshold at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=573031117%7C20250404%7C4.3\">4.3%<\/a> but given that it\u2019s only 3 cents cheaper at $0.78, I though the risk-reward dynamic was more favorable at 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"119\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1100x119.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US unemployment rate will exceed 4.3% in March\" class=\"wp-image-221555 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-1100x119.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-700x76.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT-768x83.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-FT.png 1223w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/119;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"113\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-1100x113.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US unemployment rate will exceed 4.4% in March\" class=\"wp-image-221557 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-1100x113.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT-768x79.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-FT.png 1222w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/113;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 3, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A monthly unemployment rate increase of over 0.3% is historically rare, occurring in just 40 of the last 925 job reports going back to 1948, or 4.3% of the occurrences.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":206321,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[683,686],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221552","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-labor-market","16":"tag-unemployment","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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