{"id":221289,"date":"2025-04-02T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221289"},"modified":"2025-04-03T03:44:25","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T07:44:25","slug":"options-markets-pricing-liberation-day-as-buy-the-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/options-markets-pricing-liberation-day-as-buy-the-news\/","title":{"rendered":"Options Markets Pricing \u201cLiberation Day\u201d as \u201cBuy the News&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Well, folks \u2013 it\u2019s here.&nbsp; Markets have been pricing in tariff concerns for weeks, and this afternoon we should be learning what the proposals are likely to entail.&nbsp; Each session this week has seen stocks bounce off their lows created by early selling.&nbsp; That activity implied that traders might be pricing in today\u2019s announcement as a \u201csell the rumor, buy the news\u201d event.&nbsp; It appears that view is widely held by options traders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have all heard the adage, \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news.\u201d In an IBKR podcast, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/cents-of-security\/wall-street-speak-idioms-and-adages\/?query=adages&amp;query_id=eem9-jlbRLazmjAVP5d_EA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=eem9-jlbRLazmjAVP5d_EA\">I explained it this way<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u2026the efficient market hypothesis says that markets contain all the information that\u2019s available to them and use that information to price whatever financial asset efficiently. In reality, that kind of works in the long term. It doesn\u2019t necessarily work in the short term. So, what happens a lot of times is you hear that some company is going to be announcing some new product, let\u2019s say the new iPhone for example, and everybody knows the new iPhone is going to be great and you hear all the rumors about the new features and what it\u2019s going to encompass and everything else.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>[When] it\u2019s actually released \u2026 and the demand for it is what everybody expected, well, where\u2019s your catalyst? The stock has presumably been going up because everybody\u2019s been buying based on all this other stuff. Well, now it\u2019s here. Who\u2019s the next buyer?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That concept can work in reverse as well.&nbsp; If everyone widely expects a piece of news to be negative and investors price that in, the news needs to be even worse than expected for it to push prices lower.&nbsp; Otherwise, the reaction results in higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key problem with today\u2019s announcement is that no one has been quite sure exactly what to price in.&nbsp; When we have \u201cknown unknowns\u201d there is typically a range of definable outcomes.&nbsp; Ahead of the last election there was uncertainty about the eventual winner, but investors could certainly create a playbook for a victory by either candidate.&nbsp; Ahead of a Fed meeting there are well-defined probabilities for the likelihood of a rate cut.&nbsp; Ahead of an earnings or economic report, such as Friday\u2019s jobs numbers, there are well-disclosed consensus estimates.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/money\/markets\/markets-on-high-alert-ahead-of-trump-s-tariff-plan-reveal\/ar-AA1C9Prn?ocid=BingNewsVerp\">As I said to a reporter yesterday<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>I can&#8217;t recall a situation where the stakes were this high and yet the outcome was so unpredictable.&nbsp; The devil is going to be in the details and nobody knows the details.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of that lack of clarity, traders of S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) options seem to be more concerned with missing a bounce than hedging a further decline.&nbsp; We see this in the IBKR Probability Lab data for SPX options expiring tomorrow and Friday:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-april-3-rd-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 3<sup>rd<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"958\" height=\"410\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 3rd, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221295 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1.png 958w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1-700x300.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1-300x128.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1-768x329.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 958px) 100vw, 958px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 958px; aspect-ratio: 958\/410;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-april-4-th-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"953\" height=\"355\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring April 4th, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221294 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-2.png 953w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-2-700x261.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-2-300x112.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-2-768x286.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 953px) 100vw, 953px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 953px; aspect-ratio: 953\/355;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is quite clear that there is an upward bias to the curve, which tends to have something resembling a normal distribution.&nbsp;&nbsp; In both cases \u2013 the first is a relatively \u201cpure\u201d read on this afternoon\u2019s tariff news, the second includes Friday\u2019s employment report \u2013 we see that the peak probability is above current levels.&nbsp; The peak for tomorrow\u2019s options is around 5715, about 1.2% above the current SPX level, and for Friday it is around 5745, or 1.8% higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, it is not as though SPX options traders are truly sanguine.&nbsp; We see at-money implied volatilities pricing in roughly 2.4% and 2.1% daily moves for tomorrow and Friday, respectively.&nbsp; Considering the potential magnitude of the tariff announcements, that shows respect for the likelihood of a substantial move.&nbsp; We also see curvy downside skews, but with some relative steepening.&nbsp; That implies at least a healthy respect for a potentially negative outcome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-skews-for-options-expiring-april-3-rd-top-april-4-th-middle-april-18-th-bottom\"><strong><em>SPX Skews for Options Expiring April 3<sup>rd<\/sup> (top), April 4<sup>th<\/sup> (middle), April 18<sup>th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"893\" height=\"461\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-4.png\" alt=\"SPX Skews for Options Expiring April 3rd (top), April 4th (middle), April 18th (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-221293 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-4.png 893w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-4-700x361.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-4-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-4-768x396.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 893px) 100vw, 893px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 893px; aspect-ratio: 893\/461;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And just in case you need a further reference for how skittish and illiquid the current market conditions might be, note that I took the Probability Lab and skew snapshots about 5 minutes apart.&nbsp; In that brief time, we saw SPX rally by about 20 points.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buckle up.&nbsp; The first act of liberation could be a bumpy ride.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, folks \u2013 it\u2019s here.\u00a0 Markets have been pricing in tariff concerns for weeks, and this afternoon we should be learning what the proposals are likely to entail.\u00a0 Each session this week has seen stocks bounce off their lows created by early selling.\u00a0 That activity implied that traders might be pricing in today\u2019s announcement as a \u201csell the rumor, buy the news\u201d event.\u00a0 It appears that view is widely held by options traders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":194008,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[10995,4574,910,199,18974],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-221289","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-market-volatility","15":"tag-options-trading","16":"tag-sp-500","17":"tag-tariffs","18":"tag-trader-sentiment","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin 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