{"id":221282,"date":"2025-04-02T12:38:27","date_gmt":"2025-04-02T16:38:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221282"},"modified":"2025-04-02T13:12:34","modified_gmt":"2025-04-02T17:12:34","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-first-quarter-gdp-to-come-in-below-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/forecast-contract-opinion-first-quarter-gdp-to-come-in-below-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: First Quarter GDP To Come in Below 1%: April 2, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Considering that consumer spending has been contracting to start the year, the path to a positive GDP print in the first quarter has narrowed significantly. Indeed, the pace of real consumption, which is adjusted for inflation and comprises roughly 68% of GDP, declined to a 47-month low in January, and February\u2019s modest uptick of 0.1% barely offset the significant drop of 0.6% to start the year. Furthermore, February marked the first fall in real services expenditures in 37 months, pointing to rising stress amongst households as they pare back on discretionary experiences. The weak prints in both months were a primary driver of the Atlanta Fed\u2019s GDP Now estimate being dropped to -3.7% for the first quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"765\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-3.png\" alt=\"Chart showing slow consumer spending\" class=\"wp-image-221284 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-3.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-3-700x510.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-3-300x219.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture1-3-768x560.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/765;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In light of the slowdown worries, I believe the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=2e1776b0%7C16%3A0C%3A5C%3A76%3A67%3AC4&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=712856689%7C20250626%7C1\">Contract <\/a>asking, \u201cWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 1% in Q1 2025?,\u201d offers the \u201cNo\u201d answer at what I perceive is an attractive price of $0.72, reflecting a 72% chance that the headline figure comes in at 1% or below. I considered the 0.5% <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=2e1776b0%7C16%3A0C%3A5C%3A76%3A67%3AC4&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=712856689%7C20250626%7C0.5\">threshold<\/a> which offers the \u201cNo\u201d answer at $0.67, but thought that the 1% alternative offered a better risk-reward dynamic at just 5 cents more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"110\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1-1100x110.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if first quarter GDP will exceed 0.5% \" class=\"wp-image-221285 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1-1100x110.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1-700x70.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1-300x30.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1-768x77.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture2-1.png 1228w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/110;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"117\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1100x117.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if first quarter GDP will exceed 1% \" class=\"wp-image-221286 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-1100x117.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-700x74.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3-768x81.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/04\/Picture3.png 1246w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/117;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 2, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Considering that consumer spending has been contracting to start the year, the path to a positive GDP print in the first quarter has narrowed significantly. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218076,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[3762,18274,527],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221282","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-consumer-spending","16":"tag-forecasttrader","17":"tag-gdp","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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