{"id":221065,"date":"2025-03-28T14:23:38","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T18:23:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221065"},"modified":"2025-04-01T14:24:42","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T18:24:42","slug":"featured-forecast-contract-of-the-weekjob-openings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/featured-forecast-contract-of-the-weekjob-openings\/","title":{"rendered":"Featured Forecast Contract of The Week\u2014Job Openings: March 31, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A fairly reliable trend with JOLTS reports and high frequency data point to the \u201cNo\u201d answer for the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047555%7C20250401%7C7.9\">Contract <\/a>asking if February job openings will exceed 7.9 million being correct. If so, the Contract, which costs only $0.57, would pay $1 after the report, formally called the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, is released at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"102\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2-1100x102.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if JOLTS job openings in February will exceed 7.9 million\" class=\"wp-image-221066 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2-1100x102.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2-700x65.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2-300x28.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2-768x71.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-2.png 1250w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/102;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices reflected highest bids as of the morning of March 31, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, in the last 10 months, openings have exceeded 7.9 million only twice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, the consensus estimate is at 7.63 million, below the 7.74 million from January and the Forecast Contract threshold of 7.9 million, against the backdrop of recent economic data disappointing as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, and perhaps even more compelling, higher frequency data from online job placement company Indeed point to declining job openings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-2.png\" alt=\"Chart showing the JOLTs job openings have exceed 7.9 million only twice in past 10 months.\" class=\"wp-image-221067 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-2.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-2-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-2-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-2-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"760\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-1.png\" alt=\"Indeed data points to job opening falling below 7.9 million for February\" class=\"wp-image-221068 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-1.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-1-700x507.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-1-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-1-768x556.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/760;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A fairly reliable trend with JOLTs reports and high frequency data point to the \u201cNo\u201d answer for the IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if February job openings will exceed 7.9 million being correct. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":219486,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18274,18949,18948,17202],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-221065","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-forecasttrader","16":"tag-indeed","17":"tag-job-vacancies","18":"tag-jolts-data","19":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is 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