{"id":221035,"date":"2025-03-31T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=221035"},"modified":"2025-04-01T03:46:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T07:46:09","slug":"stocks-face-surging-volatility-as-liberation-day-and-jobs-friday-near","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/stocks-face-surging-volatility-as-liberation-day-and-jobs-friday-near\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Face Surging Volatility as Liberation Day and Jobs Friday Near"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It has been a busy week between massive amounts of data, and who can forget Liberation Day? I still get the feeling that most investors think Trump is bluffing and will provide more lenient tariffs. I don\u2019t think that is going to happen. I don\u2019t think Trump cares. He is trying to push through an agenda, which is all that matters to him. So while may investors think that Liberation will mark some bottom in the market, I tend to believe that market has a Holy Sh*t moment and realizes he is dead serious about is agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Besides Liberation Day, Jobs and the ISM data points will be key this week. I fear that this week\u2019s data will not relieve the market, with the odds for stagflation increasing. It is clear that prices paid indexes across various surveys and reports have gone higher, while there are also clear signs of weaker hiring in these same reports. Additionally, this week,\u00a0Kalshi is assigning an unemployment rate\u00a0of 4.2%,\u00a0higher<\/em>\u00a0than the analysts\u2019 estimate of\u00a04.1%. After last week\u2019s shock core PCE report, which Kalshi nailed, we need to take seriously the upside risk to this week\u2019s unemployment rate.\u00a0Kalshi is also looking for 135k\u00a0jobs to have been created,\u00a0below\u00a0<\/em>analysts\u2019 estimates for 140k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monday, we clear the JPM Collar Put lurking out there at 5565. That trade generally gets closed out sometime in the morning, and the new collar gets put up later in the day. Because this collar trade has become so highly publicized, they do many things throughout the day to make it difficult to game. Generally, the impact is felt on the Market On Close, starting around 2 PM ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Once that clears, the Put wall moves to 5,500, 5,400, and 5,200 starting on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 is technically set up exactly as the options market describes because if we move past the lows at 5,500, the next support level is 5,400, followed by 5,200. There is no support at the 5,300 level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If the bear flag is correct, which, again, at this point, looks accurate, then we should not only undercut 5,500 but do it relatively quickly. That means we should be below that level early in the week. There is also a good chance that it will happen because the VIX is relatively low at 21, and is likely to rise as we approach the Job report on Friday, as noted by the term structure when using the daily options for the S&P 500 5,500 strike price, and the chances of IV being even higher by Friday are pretty high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As we know, the VIX 1Day often reaches a very high value on Thursdays heading into a job report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While the strains of quarter end should be behind us this week, it will likely be marked by rising implied volatility levels heading into the Job report. So I don\u2019t think this week gets any more manageable, and if Liberation day goes as I think it goes, it could be a complete Sh*t show.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on March 30, 2025 – Stocks Face Surging Volatility as Liberation Day and Jobs Friday Near<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Terms By ChatGPT<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Stagflation<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 An economic condition with stagnant growth and high inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Kalshi<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 A prediction market platform used for forecasting economic indicators.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Core PCE<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation measure excluding food and energy.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. JPM Collar Put<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 A structured options trade associated with JPMorgan, involving protective puts and covered calls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. Market On Close (MOC)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Orders executed at the closing price of the trading day.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Put wall<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 A large concentration of put options at certain strike prices, which can act as technical support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  7. Bear flag<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 A technical analysis pattern indicating potential further downside.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  8. VIX \/ VIX 1Day<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 Volatility Index, measuring market expectations of near-term volatility.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  9. Term structure<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 The relationship between option prices and their time to expiration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  10. Implied volatility (IV)<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 The market\u2019s forecast of a likely movement in a security\u2019s price.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    This report contains independent commentary to be used for informational and educational purposes only. Michael Kramer is a member and investment adviser representative with Mott Capital Management. Mr. Kramer is not affiliated with this company and does not serve on the board of any related company that issued this stock. All opinions and analyses presented by Michael Kramer in this analysis or market report are solely Michael Kramer\u2019s views. Readers should not treat any opinion, viewpoint, or prediction expressed by Michael Kramer as a specific solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a particular security or follow a particular strategy. Michael Kramer\u2019s analyses are based upon information and independent research that he considers reliable, but neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. Michael Kramer is not under any obligation to update or correct any information presented in his analyses. Mr. Kramer\u2019s statements, guidance, and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Michael Kramer nor Mott Capital Management guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment commentary presented in this analysis. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investments or strategies mentioned in this analysis may not be suitable for you. This material does not consider your particular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs and is not intended as a recommendation appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies in this analysis. Upon request, the advisor will provide a list of all recommendations made during the past twelve months. Before acting on information in this analysis, you should consider whether it is suitable for your circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser to determine the suitability of any investment.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It has been a busy week between massive amounts of data, and who can forget Liberation Day?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[17830,18938,2074,317],"contributors-categories":[13718],"class_list":{"0":"post-221035","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-stocks","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-jobs-friday","14":"tag-liberation-day","15":"tag-unemployment-rate","16":"tag-vix","17":"contributors-categories-mott-capital-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nStocks Face Surging Volatility as Liberation Day 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