{"id":220991,"date":"2025-03-28T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-28T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220991"},"modified":"2025-04-09T11:41:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-09T15:41:50","slug":"those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/","title":{"rendered":"Those Pesky Consumers and Their Miserable Sentiment"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today\u2019s equity market rug-pull was brought to you by the friendly folks at the University of Michigan.&nbsp; While I\u2019ve never understood what compound in the water in Ann Arbor makes parents suddenly bleed maize and blue when their offspring enroll at that institution<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>, their economists should not be blamed for being the bi-weekly messengers of bad news about consumer sentiment.&nbsp; I\u2019ll return to the same term that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fomo-facts\/\">I last used to describe<\/a> the UMich sentiment data: Frankly,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/HtSpNJ76_UU?t=10\">it stinks<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To be fair, today\u2019s data doesn\u2019t stink quite as badly as say, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fomo-facts\/\">two weeks ago<\/a>, or one month ago, or even as early as February 7<sup>th<\/sup>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/trader-sentiment-soured-when-the-sentiment-numbers-arrived\/\">when we first noted a strange<\/a> uptick in 1-year inflation expectations.&nbsp; The magnitudes of the misses simply weren\u2019t that substantial \u2013 and one measure actually improved:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"522\" height=\"438\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/image-38.png\" alt=\"University of Michigan, March 28 2025\" class=\"wp-image-221003 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 522px; aspect-ratio: 522\/438;width:672px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/image-38.png 522w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/image-38-300x252.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 522px) 100vw, 522px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Coming on the back of a higher-than-expected monthly reading of the Core PCE Deflator (aka the Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation measure) of 0.4% vs. the prior 0.3% (which was also the consensus expectation), higher inflation expectations were not at all helpful to and already skittish market.&nbsp; My interpretation, and seemingly that of many traders, is that the Fed has and inflation concern on its hands even before the tariffs get implemented.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The early trading activity was a bit of a tug of war between the \u201cbuy the dip\u201d crowd and those who were concerned about the higher PCE reading.&nbsp; Pre-market futures and the first half-hour of cash trading were only modestly lower, with some attempts to claw back to unchanged levels.&nbsp; Those efforts were abandoned after the UMich report, though, and stocks sank precipitously.&nbsp; The modest declines became a -1.5% rout in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) and -2% in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) by midday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet bond yields have been lower across the curve all morning, implying either that the PCE report was not all that meaningful to bond traders or that there is a \u201cflight to safety\u201d going on.&nbsp; My vote is of course for the latter.&nbsp; The 10-Year Treasury yield was about 3bp lower before the PCE data, about 6bp lower just before the UMich data, and about 9bp at midday.&nbsp; It is hard to reconcile the prospect of higher inflation with lower long-term yields unless there is either a flight to safety or concerns about future economic woes.&nbsp; Neither is a particularly welcome topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the sentiment numbers, I had been of the belief that the Fed was less concerned with \u201csoft data\u201d, like consumer surveys, than with \u201chard data\u201d from official government sources.&nbsp; I happened to attend a discussion with Richard Clarida, a former Fed Vice Chair, and he assured the audience that it was not the case.&nbsp; He asserted that at least during his time at the Fed (2018-2022), they considered all data somewhat equally and did indeed pay close attention to survey data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dr. Clarida\u2019s talk led me to the question that I am wrestling most with right now: if the two parts of the Fed\u2019s dual mandate move in opposition (higher prices AND higher unemployment), which part does the Fed tackle first? &nbsp;During Paul Volcker\u2019s time at the Fed, which coincided with a major bout of stagflation (much more inflation and unemployment than we face now), the focus was on fixing inflation as a prerequisite to reducing unemployment.&nbsp; Chair Powell seems to be respectful of Volcker\u2019s handling of that inflationary shock, so my gut says that he would also advocate for focusing on higher prices, despite his comment about the \u201ctransitory\u201d effects of tariffs on inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding that \u201ctransitory\u201d comment, it is important to remember the distinction between price levels and inflation.&nbsp; CPI \u2013 the Consumer Price Index \u2013 is like the S&amp;P 500.&nbsp; It measures the level of prices in the economy (unlike SPX, it rarely goes down).&nbsp; Inflation measures the change in CPI.&nbsp; Thus, even if inflation slows, it doesn\u2019t mean that prices come down &#8212; disinflation refers to a slowing rate of price increases, not lower prices.&nbsp; So, while tariff-induced <em>inflation<\/em> might indeed be \u201ctransitory\u201d, its effect on <em>price levels<\/em> will not be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s think of it this way: suppose the price of a stock rose 2% every year, from say, $96 to $98 to $100.&nbsp; It gets more costly each year.&nbsp; Then let\u2019s say it jumps 10% to $110 one year, but then resumes its usual $2 path.&nbsp; The inflation in the stock price might have been transitory, but it never got cheaper to buy.&nbsp; That\u2019s the same as the \u201ctransitory\u201d effect from tariffs.&nbsp; Yes, the bump might be transitory, but its effect on price levels is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I finish typing this, traders don\u2019t seem to care particularly much about these types of subtleties.&nbsp; They worried about the prospect of auto tariffs on Wednesday, were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-clarity-on-tariffs-for-better-or-worse\/\">only mildly perturbed yesterday<\/a> after the details were released, and resumed their angst apace today.&nbsp; Maybe this is setting us up for a big bout of \u201csell the rumor, buy the news\u201d next week, but this month\u2019s -6% and -7.4% drops in SPX and NDX, respectively, tell us that sentiment is likely to remain challenged for some time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And I\u2019d also imagine that many of those angsty traders will be rooting for Auburn to beat Michigan in tonight\u2019s NCAA matchup\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> I\u2019m looking at you, Cousin Karen!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s equity market rug-pull was brought to you by the friendly folks at the University of Michigan.  While I\u2019ve never understood what compound in the water in Ann Arbor makes parents suddenly bleed maize and blue when their offspring enroll at that institution, their economists should not be blamed for being the bi-weekly messengers of bad news about consumer sentiment.  I\u2019ll return to the same term that I last used to describe the UMich sentiment data: Frankly, it stinks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":220995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,15042,5753,16925,17319],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-220991","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-consumer-sentiment","15":"tag-core-pce-deflator","16":"tag-federal-reserve-policy","17":"tag-inflation-expectations","18":"tag-university-of-michigan","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Those Pesky Consumers and Their Miserable Sentiment<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today\u2019s equity market rug-pull was brought to you by the friendly folks at the University of Michigan. 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I\u2019ll return to the same term that I last used to describe the UMich sentiment data: Frankly, it stinks.","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus US","article_published_time":"2025-03-28T16:45:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-04-09T15:41:50+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Steve Sosnick","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Steve Sosnick","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"NewsArticle","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/"},"author":{"name":"Steve Sosnick","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549"},"headline":"Those Pesky Consumers and Their Miserable Sentiment","datePublished":"2025-03-28T16:45:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-09T15:41:50+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/"},"wordCount":922,"commentCount":10,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","keywords":["consumer sentiment","Core PCE Deflator","Federal Reserve policy","inflation expectations","University of Michigan"],"articleSection":["IBKR Insights","Macro","North America","Region","Securities","Text Articles","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/","name":"Those Pesky Consumers and Their Miserable Sentiment | IBKR Campus US","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","datePublished":"2025-03-28T16:45:00+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-09T15:41:50+00:00","description":"Today\u2019s equity market rug-pull was brought to you by the friendly folks at the University of Michigan. While I\u2019ve never understood what compound in the water in Ann Arbor makes parents suddenly bleed maize and blue when their offspring enroll at that institution, their economists should not be blamed for being the bi-weekly messengers of bad news about consumer sentiment. I\u2019ll return to the same term that I last used to describe the UMich sentiment data: Frankly, it stinks.","inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/those-pesky-consumers-and-their-miserable-sentiment\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","width":1000,"height":563,"caption":"Those Pesky Consumers and Their Miserable Sentiment"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus US","description":"Financial Education from Interactive Brokers","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#organization","name":"Interactive Brokers","alternateName":"IBKR","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/05\/ibkr-campus-logo.jpg","width":669,"height":669,"caption":"Interactive Brokers"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"publishingPrinciples":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/about-ibkr-campus\/","ethicsPolicy":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/cyber-security-notice\/"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/angry-down-markets-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=220991"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220991\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/220995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=220991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=220991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=220991"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=220991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}