{"id":220890,"date":"2025-03-27T14:28:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-27T18:28:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220890"},"modified":"2025-04-14T16:12:48","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T20:12:48","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-new-policies-will-support-oil-production-but-capital-discipline-will-limit-increases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contract-opinion-new-policies-will-support-oil-production-but-capital-discipline-will-limit-increases\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: New Policies Will Support Oil Production, But Capital Discipline Will Limit Increases: March 27, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Energy sector fundamentals point to an attractive IBKR ForecastTrader combination opportunity regarding US oil production. In my view, the \u201cNo\u201d answer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=727520270%7C20250331%7C13800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Contract<\/a> asking, \u201cWill US Oil Production exceed 13,800 thousand barrels per day for January 2025\u201d and the \u201cYes\u201d answer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=727520270%7C20250331%7C13000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Contract<\/a> asking the same question but with a 13,000 thousand threshold are likely to be correct. The first contract with the \u201cNo\u201d answer is priced at $0.81 and the second contract with the \u201cYes\u201d answer is priced at $0.83, representing a total cost of $1.64. If oil production follows its 11-month range, both would be correct, delivering $2 to the investor for the Forecast Contract combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"699\" height=\"77\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US oil production will exceed 13.8 million barrels per day in January 2025\" class=\"wp-image-220895 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT.png 699w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-FT-300x33.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 699px) 100vw, 699px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 699px; aspect-ratio: 699\/77;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"700\" height=\"67\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if US oil production will exceed 13 million barrels per day in January 2025\" class=\"wp-image-220896 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 700px; aspect-ratio: 700\/67;width:703px;height:auto\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-FT-300x29.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 700px) 100vw, 700px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 27, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let me explain why I think both will be accurate: As shown below, domestic oil production, which is at record high levels, has exceeded 13 million barrels per day (13,000 thousand BPD) in all but two of the past 18 months but it has yet to exceed December\u2019s peak of 13.49 million. Against that backdrop, President Trump is seeking to boost activities by rolling back regulations and opening additional land for oil drilling, a strategy that will likely bolster output incrementally over the long haul. Conversely, with WTI crude at just $69 per barrel, motivating many expansionary projects in the short term is a tall bar, as increased supply may lower prices and compress margins while large producers have shifted to an approach of returning cash flows to shareholders via stock buybacks and dividends rather than reinvesting profits towards capital expenditures. Meanwhile, sector executives may believe that regulatory relief is only temporary as future administrations could re-impose restrictions. The industry also faces a considerable labor shortage and limited spare capacity, considering that volumes are at a record. With those points in mind, it\u2019s probable that oil production will increase, but in my view, it\u2019s unreasonable to expect the January average to exceed 13.8 million BPD. Furthermore, the Energy Information Administration estimates production will average 13.5 million BPD this year. In conclusion, I like the two contracts mentioned above which I believe feature an attractive risk\/return opportunity and settle this Monday, March 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT.png\" alt=\"Chart showing monthly average annual oil production in the US\" class=\"wp-image-220894 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Energy sector fundamentals point to an attractive IBKR ForecastTrader combination opportunity regarding US oil production. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18926,17937],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":["post-220890","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-economic-landscape","category-prediction-market","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-domestic-oil-production","tag-ibkr-forecasttrader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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