{"id":220793,"date":"2025-03-26T14:00:15","date_gmt":"2025-03-26T18:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220793"},"modified":"2025-04-14T16:16:23","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T20:16:23","slug":"forecast-contract-opinion-pce-yes-no-combination","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/forecast-contract-opinion-pce-yes-no-combination\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opinion: PCE Yes\/No Combination: March 26, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The tendency for consensus estimates for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be reasonably accurate points to a combination opportunity with IBKR Forecast Contracts and this Friday\u2019s release of the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the Consumer and Producer Price Indices are released earlier in the month and are significant inputs for the PCE Price Index, the results of the indicator have been well telegraphed by Wall Street over the years. This characteristic supports the likelihood that the forecast for a 2.5% year over year February increase will be correct. With that in mind, the \u201cNo\u201d answer to the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=29eda9b4%7C16%3AB0%3AE8%3AA3%3ACC%3AA8&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=726203930%7C20250328%7C2.6\">Contract<\/a> asking, \u201cWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2.6%,\u201d priced at $0.72, and the \u201cYes\u201d answer to the IBKR ForecastTrader <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=29eda9b4%7C16%3AB0%3AE8%3AA3%3ACC%3AA8&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=726203930%7C20250328%7C2.3\">Contract<\/a> asking, \u201cWill the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2.3%,\u201d priced at $0.86, in my view, have strong potential for being correct and paying, in total, $2. The total cost of the trade, which offers a favorable risk\/reward balance in my opinion, would be $1.58. In conclusion, if the headline figure comes in above expectations at 2.6%, or below projections at 2.4%, the combination trade is still profitable, delivering $2 to the investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture6-FT.png\" alt=\"PCE results have been well telegraphed by Wall Street\" class=\"wp-image-220797 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture6-FT.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture6-FT-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture6-FT-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture6-FT-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"688\" height=\"75\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture7-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will exceed 2.3%,\" class=\"wp-image-220798 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture7-2.png 688w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture7-2-300x33.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 688px) 100vw, 688px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 688px; aspect-ratio: 688\/75;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"692\" height=\"72\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture8-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will exceed 2.6%\" class=\"wp-image-220799 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture8-2.png 692w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture8-2-300x31.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 692px) 100vw, 692px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 692px; aspect-ratio: 692\/72;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 26, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The tendency for consensus estimates for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index to be reasonably accurate points to a combination opportunity with IBKR Forecast Contracts and this Friday\u2019s release of the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220811,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18755,17816],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-220793","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-prediction-market","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","16":"tag-personal-consumption-expenditures","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized 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