{"id":220761,"date":"2025-03-26T08:12:35","date_gmt":"2025-03-26T12:12:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220761"},"modified":"2025-03-27T04:58:28","modified_gmt":"2025-03-27T08:58:28","slug":"chart-advisor-the-inflation-expectation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-the-inflation-expectation\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: The Inflation Expectation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By<a href=\"https:\/\/links.investopedia.com\/u\/click?_t=36ba8fa8372241d58b3bfc06997a4332&amp;_m=33b77cb3e1d8421d86b163c649f265de&amp;_e=PMbIYxOAmlA8ndTsjX7L8zxVAZfoZ37q9MarTSN98xkA3-qc5G8m4_AfcK36juLS6fsTObMrod00URScc_008DQ_6SecdDOIv_lhihPaaekm9mOzkV38U7wWAUbIf1nUxJTEdn-wy4Kvbj5tKVGGxEbqsV_ntQJUTzA0s7wceaZgIJ8nOK5UlOnkkcaAVvDqgtnQIbVmCFLgCf5nZRJ3zZaySpTjSWGdXz2KeK54yMY-I8DRSdO8Mi_hfb7xVMbOMfyqMqyRTyND2yN2f45rZqeJXkkGtJx9H8BTIrOlhttFaUxnV5-BPXPH9ucqjUcoorJc9J2go7GLImG34qzlC1Fb4DK8XUIeOmOBfKhcx7iOuLPd_9RlvOimXFNqTTu3plBFLRdPdhuE1DwBiuVM-doQzwkyEEExSOftWSuJwcT4xG9MlZ6Yn8PqHoT3eCR7HLbzpFb2-FV42F8V1_hRug%3D%3D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">\u00a0Gordon Scott, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1\/ PCE on Friday<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2\/ Home Appliance Pricing Woes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3\/ Is Good Inflation a Thing?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1\">1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>PCE on Friday<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monday markets were treated to the S&amp;P Global flash PMIs (Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes) for March for several countries. This data is intended to offer investors insight into how businesses are faring currently, in hopes that analysts will find it useful. As a result this information is thought to be influential to market price movements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Except for when it is not, as was the case today. Although the report contained a fair bit of reference to tariffs and inflation, the market shrugged it off. So it seems the fear of inflation has appeared to lose its ability to scare anyone. Consider that Friday\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report is perhaps the most influential number the Fed is watching right now, but the data here has only one recognizable pattern to it (see chart).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"591\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-1100x591.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220762 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-1100x591.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-700x376.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700-1536x825.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-25-092700.png 1920w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/591;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Though inflation has cooled from its post-pandemic highs, the impact of helicopter money still lingers, prompting Fed watchers to feel doubtful about the influence of continuing to hold rates high. Now, most investors have all fingers crossed for a rate cut or two this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-2\">2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Home Appliance Pricing Woes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One influence that should show up in the PCE report would include the price of appliances. These are considered the tip of the spear in the conversation about tariffs and inflation. But just how valid is that concept? Consider the second chart which compares the SPDR S&amp;P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), with several of its appliance-company components.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH-1100x619.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220763 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH-1100x619.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH-700x394.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/CwUkPpmH.png 1508w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/619;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This chart shows that nearly all of these companies are outperforming the index that they are a part of since the election (when the word \u201ctariff\u201d began to enter the financial news). Johnson Controls (JCI) is actually up 12% since then, though all others have declined. This chart seems to indicate that investors are more concerned about housing demand rather than inflation in particular.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-3\">3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Is Good Inflation a Thing?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At least one company is likely to benefit from inflationary pressures and the outlook of continued high interest rates. Charles Schwab (SCHW) has been the beneficiary of a very large self-clearing operation. This allows them to benefit from the spread between what they can earn on investors held cash and the interest rates they pay out to their customers (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/charles-schwab-vs-fidelity-4587939?hid=6b90736a47d32dc744900798ce540f3858c66c03&amp;did=17029561-20250326&amp;utm_campaign=chart-advisor_newsletter&amp;utm_source=investopedia&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=032625\">which aren\u2019t too bad actually<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52-1100x619.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220764 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52-1100x619.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52-700x394.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/5KWFsw52.png 1508w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/619;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If there were such a thing as good inflation, it would be in the minds of SCHW shareholders. Schwab\u2019s business model benefits from higher interest rates. Should the Fed enact rate cuts, expect this broker\u2019s stock price to see downward pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally posted 25th March<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Gordon Scott, CMT 1\/ PCE on Friday 2\/ Home Appliance Pricing Woes 3\/ Is Good Inflation a Thing? Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":220762,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[15965,77,1282,6857,14799,12786,2269,207,670],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":["post-220761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-etfs","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-technical-analysis","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-carr","tag-fed","tag-hd","tag-jci","tag-pce-report","tag-purchasing-managers-index","tag-schw","tag-spx","tag-xhb","contributors-categories-investopedia"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with 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