{"id":220565,"date":"2025-03-24T14:34:53","date_gmt":"2025-03-24T18:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220565"},"modified":"2025-04-14T16:29:45","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T20:29:45","slug":"forecast-contract-opportunity-rangebound-new-home-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contract-opportunity-rangebound-new-home-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contract Opportunity: Rangebound New Home Sales: March 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>New home sale volumes have been rangebound for the past 26 months as post-pandemic housing demand has waned. Indeed, since December 2022, seasonally adjusted annualized transactions haven&#8217;t arrived beneath 600,000 or above 750,000. Tomorrow\u2019s update for February, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 680,000, near the 675,000 mid-point of the range. An IBKR Forecast Contract combination trade that I like going into tomorrow\u2019s print at 10:00 a.m. ET is buying the \u201cYes\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20250325%7C600000\">Forecast Contract<\/a> question asking, \u201cWill sales of new single-family homes exceed 600,000 in February 2025\u201d for $0.89 and the \u201cNo\u201d for the same question but at the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047539%7C20250325%7C750000\">750,000 threshold<\/a> for $0.87. The combination trade would cost a total of $1.76 and shall new home sales fall within the range once again, both the \u201cYes\u201d and the \u201cNo\u201d would pay a dollar each for a total profit of $0.24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-1.png\" alt=\"chart showing range bound news sales volumes \" class=\"wp-image-220566 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-1.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-1-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-1-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-1-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-2.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking, \u201cWill sales of new single-family homes exceed 600,000 in February 2025\u201d \" class=\"wp-image-220567 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-2.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-2-300x39.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"85\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-3.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking, \u201cWill sales of new single-family homes exceed 750,000 in February 2025\u201d \" class=\"wp-image-220568 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-3.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/FT-image-3-300x41.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/85;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 24, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>New home sale volumes have been range bound for the past 25 months as post-pandemic housing demand has waned. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220585,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18755,2543],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-220565","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","16":"tag-new-home-sales","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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