{"id":220393,"date":"2025-03-20T11:21:28","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T15:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220393"},"modified":"2025-04-14T17:02:50","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T21:02:50","slug":"forecast-contracts-are-you-a-hawk-or-a-dove","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contracts-are-you-a-hawk-or-a-dove\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Are you a Hawk or a Dove?: March 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Federal Reserve\u2019s quarterly updated summary of economic projections, released yesterday, anticipates two quarter-point rate reductions in 2025, potentially moving the key benchmark to a midpoint of 3.875% from 4.375%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the \u201cYes\u201d answer to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=658663572%7C20251210%7C3.375\">ForecastTrader Contract<\/a> asking will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.375% at the FOMC meeting ending December 10, 2025, is priced at $0.55, corresponding to a 55% probability that the central bank will drop its rate by 0.75% or less this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"72\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-11.png\" alt=\"ForecastTrader Contract asking if the US Fed Funds Target Rate will be set above 3.375% in December.\" class=\"wp-image-220394 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-11.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-11-300x35.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/72;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are as of the morning of March 20, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I like the \u201cYes\u201d answer, as I think sticky price pressures will prevent the committee from cutting by 1 full percentage point or more this year. The Fed, for its part, revised its inflation estimate north in yesterday\u2019s forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1900\" height=\"545\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220439 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart.jpg 1900w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart-700x201.jpg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart-1100x316.jpg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart-300x86.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart-768x220.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/fed-chart-1536x441.jpg 1536w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1900px) 100vw, 1900px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1900px; aspect-ratio: 1900\/545;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Federal Reserve<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Highlighted by J. Torres to demonstrate the upward adjustments to the Fed\u2019s 2025 inflation forecasts as well as the expectation for 2 rate reductions this year. The March SEP can be found on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomcprojtabl20250319.htm\">website<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As with all ForecastTrader contracts with the correct \u201cYes\u201d or \u201cNo\u201d answer, it would pay $1.00 to the correct side. In the meantime, the instrument is earning 3.83% APY, proportionate to the changes in its price, with an interest-like incentive coupon. The APY is adjusted commensurate with increases or decreases in the fed funds rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Federal Reserve\u2019s quarterly updated summary of economic projections, released yesterday, anticipates two quarter-point rate reductions in 2025, moving the key benchmark to a midpoint of 3.875% from 4.375%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":185551,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[4148,18844],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-220393","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fed-funds-rate","16":"tag-summary-of-economic-projects","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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