{"id":220304,"date":"2025-03-19T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220304"},"modified":"2025-03-20T10:06:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T14:06:40","slug":"on-the-lookout-for-brown-shoots-in-the-us-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/on-the-lookout-for-brown-shoots-in-the-us-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"On the lookout for \u2018brown shoots\u2019 in the US economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u201cBrown shoots\u201d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Some signs that the economy is beginning to wilt, what I call brown shoots, have begun to appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Concern from companies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In recent earnings calls, Delta Airlines, Dollar General, Macy\u2019s, and Kontoor have expressed concerns about consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Some good news<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Improving consumer sentiment and stock performance in Europe is reflecting positive surprises and rising potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Back in the spring and summer of 2009, I remember spending much of my time looking for what we called \u201cgreen shoots\u201d \u2014 signs that the economy, which was in a deep&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-a-recession.html\">recession<\/a>, was beginning to recover. I desperately searched hoping to find them. (We did and a slow but lengthy recovery followed.) Now I\u2019m looking for \u201cbrown shoots\u201d \u2014 signs that the economy is beginning to wilt. This time it isn\u2019t a desperate search but rather a reluctant one, as I\u2019m hoping not to find those brown shoots. We know, however, that recessions are caused by policy mistakes, so we must watch vigilantly for them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some brown shoots are appearing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-federal-reserve-inflation.html\">Federal Reserve<\/a>\u00a0Bank of Atlanta\u2019s (Fed) GDPNow barometer for first-quarter growth remains in negative territory, with an estimate of -2.4% GDP growth.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0This could change significantly, however, since we\u2019ll have substantial data in the coming weeks which will cause revisions to the forecast.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US consumer sentiment continues to drop. The preliminary reading of University of Michigan consumer sentiment for March fell to 57.9, a significant decline from February and the lowest level since November 2022. The expectations subindex fell to 54.2, a 15.3% decline from the previous month and a 30% drop from one year ago.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#2\">2<\/a>\u00a0<\/sup>This is the lowest level since July 2022. This follows similar results from the most recent Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has declined \u2014 although it\u2019s still above long-term historical levels.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US retail sales for February were lower than expected, and there was a substantial downward revision to US retail sales for January.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Most concerning, perhaps, is what we\u2019re hearing from companies:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Delta Airlines warned in a regulatory filing last week, \u201cThe outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in domestic demand.\u201d<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Kontoor Brands CEO Scott Baxter said about consumers in an earnings call, \u201cIf you just put yourself in their seat, they\u2019re worried about work. They\u2019re worried about the businesses that they\u2019re in. Are those going to be impacted by some of the layoffs, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/tariffs-rattle-stock-markets-long-term-impact.html\">tariffs<\/a>, the current situation right now? Any time the consumer is feeling a little bit under attack like that, they get very conservative. And I think that we are in this country right now seeing that conservatism from the consumer because of their worry.\u201d<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dollar General, a large retail store chain whose customers are largely low income households, shared that its customer base is struggling because of high\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/what-is-inflation-fed-measure.html\">inflation<\/a>\u00a0and economic uncertainty: \u201cMany of our customers report they only have enough money for basic essentials, with some noting that they have had to sacrifice even on the necessities.\u201d<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Macy\u2019s CEO Tony Spring warned on his recent earnings call that it\u2019s not just lower income households that are coming under pressure: \u201cI think the affluent customer that\u2019s shopping Macy\u2019s is just as uncertain and as confused and concerned by what\u2019s transpiring.\u201d<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup>\u00a0Affluent consumers in the US are likely to be reducing spending at least partially because of the substantial stock market drop, which has historically impacted perceptions of net worth (the \u201cwealth effect\u201d) and negatively impacted consumer spending.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Market corrections<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>While all eyes have been on the S&amp;P 500 Index, which briefly fell into correction territory last week, the Russell 2000 Index has quietly fallen much further from its peak. As of Friday, the Russell 2000 Index is down more than 16% from its peak in November 2024, getting dangerously close to bear market territory.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Small-cap stocks are typically far more sensitive to the economic cycle than large-cap stocks, so we should be pay attention to this very significant drop and the message it\u2019s sending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Rising recession probability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Recession is not a fait accompli, as I\u2019ve said before. While the probability of a recession is rising every day and more brown shoots are appearing, we\u2019re far from a contraction becoming a reality. I don\u2019t see a sea of brown shoots right now \u2014 far from it. I think a recession can still be prevented by abandoning policies that are negative for the economy (as I\u2019ve articulated in&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/us-drop-gdp-growth.html\">previous articles<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Some good news<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The good news is that change can create opportunity, and sizeable change can create a sizeable opportunity. I\u2019ve talked about the fiscal impulse getting stronger in Europe as countries ramp up defense spending. We\u2019re even seeing an improvement in consumer sentiment in Europe as the Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 96.3 in February, the highest level in five months.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#10\">10<\/a>&nbsp;<\/sup>Investor expectations for the next six months rose substantially, which is very encouraging.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#11\">11<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;<a><\/a>German economic sentiment is also getting better and is poised to improve further given the results of the federal election in February.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#12\">12<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;I would expect positive surprises and improving potential to continue to impact European stock performance. This is a valuable reminder of the importance of diversification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitical and economic change may also be creating opportunities in other asset classes, such as gold. It crossed the critical $3,000 per ounce level last week<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html#13\">13<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;and appears poised to rise further, in my view, as uncertainty has become one of the few certainties in this environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Looking ahead<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The most important release this week, from my perspective, will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) \u201cdot plot,\u201d which will give us insight into FOMC members\u2019 expectations for the US economy and the fed funds rate. The Fed seems committed to sitting on its hands for the time being, but the dot plot will force them to \u201cguesstimate\u201d whether they\u2019ll cut rates this year and by how much. With so much up in the air, it\u2019ll be interesting to see their expectations. I\u2019m sticking with my view that we\u2019ll get several rate cuts this year. This is important because, with such strong fiscal policy headwinds, it seems one of the few areas of hope for positive surprise in the US will come from a Fed that provides some easing this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bank of Japan (BOJ) meets this week, on the heels of shunto negotiations, which indicate 2025 will be another year of significant wage growth. Long-maturity government bond yields have risen, suggesting rising odds the BoJ will hike rates at this meeting. If it does raise rates, I think it\u2019ll be viewed positively as another vote of confidence in the Japanese economy. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank also meet this week, and it\u2019ll be helpful to get their assessments of their economies and the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>Report<\/strong><\/th><th><strong>What it tells us<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><tr><td>March 17<\/td><td>US retail sales&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the retail sector.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>NAHB Housing Market Index&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the US housing market.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>March 18&nbsp;<\/td><td>Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment&nbsp;<\/td><td>Measures economic sentiment in the eurozone for the next six months.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Canada Consumer Price Index&nbsp;<\/td><td>Tracks the path of inflation.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Decision&nbsp;<\/td><td>Reveals the latest decision on the path of interest rates.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>March 19&nbsp;<\/td><td>Eurozone Consumer Price Index&nbsp;<\/td><td>Tracks the path of inflation.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>FOMC Monetary Policy Decision&nbsp;<\/td><td>Reveals the latest decision on the path of interest rates.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Australia Unemployment Rate&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the job market.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>March 20&nbsp;<\/td><td>UK Unemployment Rate&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the job market.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Swiss National Bank Monetary Policy Decision&nbsp;<\/td><td>Reveals the latest decision on the path of interest rates.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision&nbsp;<\/td><td>Reveals the latest decision on the path of interest rates.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>US Existing Home Sales&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the housing market.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>UK GfK Consumer Confidence&nbsp;<\/td><td>Measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity in the UK.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>March 21&nbsp;<\/td><td>Canada Retail Sales&nbsp;<\/td><td>Indicates the health of the retail sector.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>&nbsp;<\/td><td>Brazil Federal Tax Revenue&nbsp;<\/td><td>Funds government programs and services.&nbsp;<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted on March 18, 2025 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/US-economy-recession-lookout-brown-shoots.html\">On the lookout for \u2018brown shoots\u2019 in the US economy<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Footnotes<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Source: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, as of March 6, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, March 14, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, March 11, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: US Census Bureau, March 17, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: \u201cDelta cuts its once-rosy outlook. Here&#8217;s what&#8217;s worrying the airline,\u201d Morningstar, March 10, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: \u201cConsumers \u2018Under Attack\u2019 Are Pulling Back, Lee Maker Says,\u201d Bloomberg L.P., February 25, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: \u201cWildly popular US discount chain with 20,000 stores announces mass closures as retail apocalypse spreads,\u201d Daily Mail, March 14, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: \u201cMacy\u2019s sounds yet another alarm on consumer spending,\u201d TheStreet, March 7, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 14, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: European Commission, February 28, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Sentix GmbH, as of March 10, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment, a sentiment indicator created out of the monthly ZEW Financial Market Survey, an aggregation of the sentiments of approximately 350 economists and analysts on the economic future of Germany in the medium term, February 18, 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 14, 2025<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some signs that the economy is beginning to wilt, what I call brown shoots, have begun to 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