{"id":220232,"date":"2025-03-18T11:29:59","date_gmt":"2025-03-18T15:29:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220232"},"modified":"2025-04-14T17:57:42","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T21:57:42","slug":"forecast-contracts-higher-threshold-industrial-production-delivers-1-to-team-no-march-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/forecast-contracts-higher-threshold-industrial-production-delivers-1-to-team-no-march-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Contracts: Higher Threshold Industrial Production Delivers $1 To \u201cTeam No\u201d: March 18, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Industrial production was stronger than expected last month, but IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts with \u201cNo\u201d answers to questions asking if year-over-year (y\/y) growth would increase 1.5% or more delivered a $1 dollar return. Production climbed 1.4% y\/y after advancing 1.9% in January, according to the Federal Reserve. On a month-over-month (m\/m) basis, the metric rose 0.7%, exceeding the consensus estimate by a wide margin. The m\/m expectation was just 0.2% while January\u2019s result came in at 0.3%. As I was writing yesterday\u2019s publication, prices for winning contracts started at $0.24 for the target of 1.5% and increased for choices with higher thresholds, delivering returns for &#8220;Team No.&#8221; Among contracts featured in yesterday\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-economic-landscape\/industrial-production-forecast-contract-opportunity\/\">Traders\u2019 Insight article<\/a>, only two choices with \u201cNo\u201d answers \u2014 those with hurdles of 1% and 0.5% \u2014 were incorrect. They required lower commitments with prices of $0.20 and $0.22, respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"105\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-12.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if industrial production growth will exceed 1.5% y\/y in February\" class=\"wp-image-220242 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-12.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-12-700x67.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-12-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-12-768x73.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/105;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"593\" height=\"593\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-7.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader Contraction regarding industrial production growth\" class=\"wp-image-220243 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-7.png 593w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-7-300x300.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 593px) 100vw, 593px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 593px; aspect-ratio: 593\/593;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: From yesterday\u2019s article, as of the morning of March 17, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-high-conviction-idea-for-thursday-hong-kong-cpi\"><strong>High Conviction Idea for Thursday: Hong Kong CPI<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>A high-conviction idea for Thursday is Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index exceeding 1.2% y\/y for February. January\u2019s figure came in at 2% and the median estimate for this print is 1.8%. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I like the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?platform=cp&amp;hardware_info=f29556f2%7C16%3A2C%3AE9%3A3F%3A15%3AF1&amp;action=EVENT_TRADER&amp;id=725452893%7C20250320%7C1.2\">Yes<\/a> at $0.75; not a homerun but coming in at 1.2% or under is a really tall bar for \u201cTeam No.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1078\" height=\"83\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-7.png\" alt=\"IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if y\/y change in Hong Kong Consumer Price Index will exceed 1.2% in February 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-220244 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-7.png 1078w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-7-700x54.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-7-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-7-768x59.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1078px) 100vw, 1078px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1078px; aspect-ratio: 1078\/83;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are as of the morning of March 18, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Industrial production was stronger than expected last month, but IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts with \u201cNo\u201d answers to questions asking if year over year (y\/y) growth would increase 1.5% or more delivered a $1 dollar return.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":220255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18755,720],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-220232","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","16":"tag-industrial-production","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO 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