{"id":220066,"date":"2025-03-17T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220066"},"modified":"2025-03-18T04:56:23","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T08:56:23","slug":"weekly-market-recap-march-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-march-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: March 17, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Headline CPI rose 0.2% m\/m (2.8% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Core CPI rose 0.2% m\/m (3.1% y\/y)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment dropped to 57.9<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Retail sales<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>FOMC meeting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing starts<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After the election, many anticipated that the dollar would continue its upward trajectory, even after hitting its highest level in real effective terms since the 1980s. This was fueled by the belief that the new administration&#8217;s policies would stimulate real economic growth and reduce the probability of significant Fed rate cuts in 2025. However, this week\u2019s chart shows the dollar\u2019s recent plunge, declining 4.4% year-to-date, casting doubt on previous expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why is this happening? Interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other developed markets, a crucial short-term driver of the dollar, have fallen from 2.0% to 1.5% since January. This shift is largely due to increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, which have risen to 72bps this year, up from about 30bps a few months ago. Last week&#8217;s inflation report, which showed a modest 0.2% m\/m increase in headline inflation, has further bolstered the case for more cuts. Additionally, ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the U.S. may be perceived as more harmful to domestic growth than to international growth, contributing to the dollar&#8217;s decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For equity performance, a weaker dollar has been a boon for international equities this year. The euro and Japanese yen have appreciated by 5.0% and 5.8%, respectively, against the dollar YTD. This marks a significant reversal from last year, when a stronger dollar shaved off 10.8% from Japanese equity returns and 5.9% from European ex-UK equities. Despite the current decline, the dollar remains highly valued, indicating potential for further depreciation. This underscores the importance of broad international diversification amid heightened uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"997\" height=\"401\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-17-100550.png\" alt=\"The dollar has lost the ground it gained since the election\" class=\"wp-image-220067 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-17-100550.png 997w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-17-100550-700x282.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-17-100550-300x121.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Screenshot-2025-03-17-100550-768x309.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 997px) 100vw, 997px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 997px; aspect-ratio: 997\/401;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<br>Thought of the week: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 17, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2024 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., March 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of March 17, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights the dollar&#8217;s 4.4% YTD plunge, challenging expectations of its continued rise post-election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,217,18764,2141,1546],"contributors-categories":[13608],"class_list":{"0":"post-220066","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-consumer-sentiment","13":"tag-cpi","14":"tag-dollar-decline","15":"tag-fomc-meeting","16":"tag-retail-sales","17":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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