{"id":220023,"date":"2025-03-14T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=220023"},"modified":"2025-04-14T19:13:49","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T23:13:49","slug":"consumer-sentiment-forecasttrader-opportunity-driven-by-initial-vs-final","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/consumer-sentiment-forecasttrader-opportunity-driven-by-initial-vs-final\/","title":{"rendered":"Consumer Sentiment\u00a0ForecastTrader\u00a0Opportunity Driven by Initial vs. Final: March 14, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Today\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) points to the increased chances that the \u201cNo\u201d answers for <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250328%7C66\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts<\/a> asking if the final benchmark will exceed 62 and 66 on March 28, priced at only $0.32 and $0.74, will be correct. If that turns out to be the case, the Contracts would pay $1. Additionally, today\u2019s print points to the \u201cNo\u201d answer for the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20250328%7C70.3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Contract<\/a> asking if the index will exceed 70.3, priced at $0.89, also being likely to be a winner. Folks, the chances of these answers being correct are underscored by final UMich results generally deviating little from the preliminary findings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"104\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220047 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-9.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture1-9-300x50.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/104;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"96\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-10.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220048 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-10.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture2-10-300x46.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/96;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"624\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-6.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220051 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-6.png 624w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture3-6-300x48.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 624px; aspect-ratio: 624\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The initial UMich results for March dropped from 64.7 in February to 57.9, much worse than the consensus expectation of 63.1. Consumers\u2019 view of current economic conditions fell from 65.7 to 63.5 during the period compared to the consensus expectation of 65.0 while consumer expectations weakened from 64.0 to 54.2, significantly below the estimate of 64.3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-220029 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-5.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-5-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-5-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/Picture4-5-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It was the third-consecutive decline in overall sentiment and the weakness occurred across ages, education levels, income, wealth, political affiliations and geographic regions. For today\u2019s results, fear about price pressures was the largest culprit. For the next 12 months, survey respondents believe inflation will hit 4.9%, up from 4.3% in February. The 4.9% rate is the highest level since November of 2022. Over the longer term, or 5 years out, shoppers expect costs to increase 3.9% compared to 3.5% last month. It was the tallest month-over-month jump since 1993.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Today\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) points to the increased chances that the \u201cNo\u201d answers for IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts asking if the final benchmark will exceed 62 and 66 on March 28, priced at only $0.32 and $0.74, will be correct. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218936,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18929,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1576,18755,16925],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-220023","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-macro","10":"category-north-america","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-consumer-sentiment","16":"tag-ibkr-forecasttrader-contracts","17":"tag-inflation-expectations","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Consumer Sentiment\u00a0ForecastTrader\u00a0Opportunity Driven by Initial vs. Final: March 14, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Today\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) points to the increased chances that the \u201cNo\u201d answers for...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/220023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Consumer Sentiment\u00a0ForecastTrader\u00a0Opportunity Driven by Initial vs. Final: March 14, 2025 | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Today\u2019s preliminary print of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMich) points to the increased chances that the \u201cNo\u201d answers for IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts asking if the final benchmark will exceed 62 and 66 on March 28, priced at only $0.32 and $0.74, will be correct. IB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-trader\/consumer-sentiment-forecasttrader-opportunity-driven-by-initial-vs-final\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-14T16:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-14T23:13:49+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/grocery-store-shopping-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" 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