{"id":219991,"date":"2025-03-14T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219991"},"modified":"2025-03-17T16:43:40","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T20:43:40","slug":"2025-recession-bets-are-on-fire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/2025-recession-bets-are-on-fire\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Recession Bets Are On Fire, Yet Traders Could See Potential Gains If US Economy Just Holds"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">ZINGER KEY POINTS<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Recession odds for 2025 have climbed to 37%, according to CFTC-regulated betting market Kalshi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/premium\/ideas\/benzinga-edge-7-days-free-trial\/?utm_campaign=rankings&amp;utm_adType=zinger&amp;utm_ad=stocksplummeting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Find out which stock just plummeted to the bottom of the new Benzinga Rankings. Updated daily\u2014spot the biggest red flags before it\u2019s too late.<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Wagers on a U.S. recession in 2025 have climbed sharply in recent weeks, as softer-than-expected economic data and cautious outlooks from&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/topic\/expert-ideas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">economists fuel investor anxiety.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The likelihood of the U.S. economy entering a recession this year has hit 37%, according to betting markets tracked by CFTC-regulated Kalshi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Is A 2025 Recession Really Inevitable?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;There&#8217;s also confusion over the outlook for U.S. economic growth,\u201d said&nbsp;<strong>David Morrison<\/strong>, senior market analyst at Trade Nation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe current expectation is that this is about to slow sharply, thanks to a great extent to tariffs, with an increased probability of an outright recession in 2025,&#8221; he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Latest economic forecasts paint a concerning picture. The Atlanta Federal Reserve&#8217;s GDPNow model forecasts a 2.4% contraction in the first quarter. That\u2019s a stark reversal from the 2.3% expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interest rate expectations reflect these concerns, as Morrison highlighted. Traders now anticipate three 25-basis-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2025, a notable shift from just one expected cut two months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump-related tariffs are a major driver of rising recession risks. \u201cTariff fears are pushing companies to increase prices, raising the likelihood of higher inflation this summer and complicating the Fed&#8217;s policy amid recession concerns,\u201d said&nbsp;<strong>George Vessey<\/strong>, forex and macro strategist at Convera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Several institutions have adjusted their recession probabilities higher, with JPMorgan economists now estimating a 40% likelihood of a recession in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Atlanta Fed&#8217;s GDPNow model projects a 2.4% contraction in the first quarter, a stark reversal from the 2.3% growth rate seen in the final quarter of 2024.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, a single quarter of negative GDP does not meet the technical definition of a recession. A recession occurs if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This still leaves room for the economy to avoid a prolonged slump.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bettors wagering $100 on a \u201cno recession\u201d outcome stand to earn $153 if the economy remains in positive territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Political Stakes And Recession Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The political landscape may also play a role in determining whether the U.S. slips into a recession.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Friday, U.S. Commerce Secretary&nbsp;<strong>Howard<\/strong>&nbsp;<strong>Lutnick<\/strong>&nbsp;dismissed the Atlanta Fed&#8217;s contraction forecast as &#8220;ridiculous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt remains to be seen if all of the revolutionary changes to the economy and trans-Atlantic alliances will lead to a recession or if it will lead to higher growth rates in the future,\u201d&nbsp;<strong>Chris Zaccarelli,<\/strong>&nbsp;chief investment officer for Northlight Asset Management, said.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;We expect [Trump] will avoid a recession that would cost the Republicans their majorities in both houses of Congress in the mid-term elections in late 2026,&#8221;&nbsp;<strong>Ed Yardeni<\/strong>, president of Yardeni Research, said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last Sunday, Trump seemed to acknowledge&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/trading-ideas\/movers\/25\/03\/44222440\/trump-says-economy-faces-period-of-transition-recession-ahead\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the possibility of a recession<\/a>&nbsp;in 2025, citing a \u201cperiod of transition.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A No-Recession Scenario Could Lift Markets&nbsp;<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 has entered correction territory. It slid more than 10% from its February peak. The market selloff has coincided with rising growth concerns and increasing recession probabilities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet, if the economy defies expectations and avoids a downturn, equities could be poised for a strong rebound.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jeff Buchbinder<\/strong>, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted that if a recession is averted and the current decline remains within the bounds of a correction, rather than evolving into a full-blown bear market \u2014 characterized by a decline of 20% or more \u2014 \u201cthen the upside potential over the next nine to 12 months may be as much as double the downside risk.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 14, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/economics\/macro-economic-events\/25\/03\/44327908\/2025-recession-bets-are-on-fire-yet-traders-could-still-pocket-over-50-gains-if-us-economy-just-holds\">2025 Recession Bets Are On Fire, Yet Traders Could Still Pocket Over 50% Gains If US Economy Just Holds<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wagers on a U.S. recession in 2025 have climbed sharply in recent weeks, as softer-than-expected economic data and cautious outlooks from\u00a0economists fuel investor anxiety.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[18683,2678,18816,11406,18815],"contributors-categories":[13584],"class_list":{"0":"post-219991","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-economic-slowdown","13":"tag-recession-risk","14":"tag-sp-500-downturn","15":"tag-stock-market-volatility","16":"tag-tariffs-impact","17":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - 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