{"id":219865,"date":"2025-03-12T11:15:47","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T15:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219865"},"modified":"2025-03-12T12:38:03","modified_gmt":"2025-03-12T16:38:03","slug":"chart-advisor-unveiling-newer-dow-theory-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-unveiling-newer-dow-theory-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Unveiling Newer Dow Theory Signals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0David Keller, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ March 2025 Reveals Echoes of January 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Newer Dow Theory Flashes Confirmed Bearish Signal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Breadth Conditions Continue to Deteriorate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

March 2025 Reveals Echoes of January 2022<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday we compared the current pullback phase to the July 2024 correction, as we have now reached a similar threshold in terms of price and time.\u00a0 So what prevents us from declaring an obvious end to the current pullback phase?\u00a0 It\u2019s because the first wave of a long-term downtrend often displays similar technical characteristics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Charts can provide a fantastic history lesson to help us relate the current price action to previous market cycles.  And a quick glance at the 2022 market top can yield a remarkable number of similarities to the S&P 500\u2019s current trajectory.  We\u2019re now down about 10% from the February 2025 high, which is pretty much where the first drawdown ended in January 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After making a low just above 4200 in late January, the S&P 500 rallied almost 9% higher before it stalled out around 4600.  Note how this countertend rally stopped just below a downward-sloping 50-day moving average and then made a new low in the following weeks.  So before we draw too many comparisons between the current market and July-August 2024, let\u2019s remember that extended bear markets often have a very similar beginning!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Newer Dow Theory Flashes Confirmed Bearish Signal<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the items on our Bull Market Top Checklist is a confirmed bearish signal from what we call the \u201cNewer Dow Theory.\u201d\u00a0 This chart represents an updated version of Charles Dow\u2019s foundational work from the early 20th century, where he used the Dow Industrials and Dow Railroads to validate periods of economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In our updated version of Dow\u2019s approach, we\u2019re using the equal-weighted S&P 500 to represent the \u201cold economy\u201d and the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 as a proxy for the \u201cnew economy.\u201d  We observed a \u201cbearish non-confirmation\u201d in mid-February, with the Nasdaq making a new high while the S&P 500 did not confirm this breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, we\u2019ve now seen both indexes break to a new low for 2025, indicating a confirmed bearish signal.  With both indexes breaking below key support levels, further deterioration seems to be a likely scenario as we move toward the end of the 1st quarter.  And while snapback, countertrend rallies should be expected, this confirmed bearish signal suggests that rallies could be short-lived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dick\u2019s Sporting Goods Reflects Consumer Challenges<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the markets are bracing for inflation data in the form of CPI and PPI readings, the latest earnings release from Dick\u2019s Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS) could provide a preview of what we\u2019ll learn about the market\u2019s expectation for consumer sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Basically, Dick\u2019s exceeded analyst expectations for the quarter, but downgraded their outlook for 2025.  As a result, investors sold DKS to push the price almost 6% lower on Tuesday.  This comes after a failed attempt to break above key price resistance around $240 in January and February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DKS had already dropped around $40 from its January high, bringing the price back to the middle of a consolidation pattern going all the way back to March 2024.  This week\u2019s drop also confirms a breakdown of the 200-day moving average, and keeps the price below trendline resistance.  But the most troubling feature of this chart is that it represents lowered expectations for a popular retailer, weakening sentiment for consumers, and possibly a broader concern for the impact of inflationary pressures in the weeks and months to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 12th March 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0David Keller, CMT 1\/ March 2025 Reveals Echoes of January 2022 2\/ Newer Dow Theory Flashes Confirmed Bearish Signal 3\/ Breadth Conditions Continue to Deteriorate Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":219867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[217,1116,16926,1081,600,910,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-219865","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-cpi","17":"tag-dks","18":"tag-dow-jones-industrial","19":"tag-nasdaq-100","20":"tag-ppi","21":"tag-sp-500","22":"tag-spx","23":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart 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