{"id":219848,"date":"2025-03-12T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219848"},"modified":"2025-03-13T12:47:57","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T16:47:57","slug":"why-investors-should-continue-to-climb-the-wall-of-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/why-investors-should-continue-to-climb-the-wall-of-worry\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Investors Should Continue to Climb the Wall of Worry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Brick by brick, investors are building a towering wall of worry. Trump administration actions, evolving Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, relentless inflation, the DeepSeek debate, and a US economic growth scare have all contributed to rising investor anxiety in recent weeks.<br>Importantly, this note is neither an endorsement nor an indictment of Trump policy. It\u2019s an apolitical attempt to assess the economic and capital market reaction to the early days of the second Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It may be hard for investors to believe, but there is more to market volatility than reacting to the latest Trump executive action. Trump administration policies are fundamentally contradictory. Some will boost growth and inflation while others may curtail growth and be disinflationary. The size, timing, and impact are highly uncertain. Many investors support the president\u2019s pro-growth business agenda, but the administration\u2019s frenetic approach to policymaking is unsettling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the S&amp;P 500 hitting three all-time highs so far this year, extraordinarily tight credit spreads, and mild measures of market volatility, there is noticeable uneasiness in news headlines, client meetings, and market sentiment. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Investor Sentiment Survey from February 26 revealed that more than 60% of respondents were bearish about the stock market in the next six months, a 20% increase from the prior week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is a healthy departure from the near-euphoric sentiment levels reached in early December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And following the typical Election Day to Inauguration Day rally, it\u2019s common for investor doubts to surface regarding the new administration\u2019s developing agenda. Those concerns plagued the early days of the Obama, Trump 2017, and Biden administrations, but the S&amp;P 500 produced solid returns in all of their first years. According to Strategas Research Partners, the S&amp;P 500 has had a positive return in nine of the past 10 first years of the four-year presidential term. And over the past 20 years, year one has delivered the best average performance of the four years.<sup>1<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, let\u2019s examine four bricks in the monumental wall of worry and determine whether investors should keep scaling the wall despite the risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-messiness-of-making-america-great-again\">The Messiness of Making America Great Again<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Voters elected Donald Trump and investors celebrated his victory with a post-election rally. So, why the investor nervousness now that the Trump administration is aggressively pursuing its promised policy goals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In just the first six weeks of Trump\u2019s second term, investors have been asked to digest a substantial number of executive actions, lawsuits, tariff announcements, tougher immigration policy, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) activity, and a rapidly changing new world order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is all unfolding with a possible government shutdown looming on March 14. It\u2019s a lot. Understandably, investors are anxious, and they\u2019re trying to assess the risk and return impacts in real time, in a very fluid environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There have been 108 executive actions \u201473 executive orders, 23 proclamations, and 12 memorandums \u2014 signed by President Trump. The president signed more executive orders in his first 10 days in office than recent presidents signed in their first 100 days. More than 90 lawsuits have been filed challenging Trump\u2019s executive orders and moves to reshape the federal government. The incredible amount of activity makes it difficult for investors to determine the potential economic impact from the executive actions and lawsuits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trade policy from the self-proclaimed Tariff Man is a prime example. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect on March 4 after a 30-day delay and an existing 10% tariff on China doubled. On February 13, the president issued a memorandum on the development of a comprehensive plan on reciprocal trade and tariffs, citing the economic and national security threat posed by the trade deficit. Tariffs are planned for steel, aluminum, copper, autos, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. The list of products and countries threatened by tariffs grows daily.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Trump administration views tariffs as a tool to address trade imbalances, raise revenues for the federal budget, and pursue policy goals such as immigration enforcement. But unpredictable tariffs have contributed to an increase in consumer inflation expectations and created challenges for businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Market participants also will be watching the impact of the next phase of immigration policy. Border Patrol Chief Mike Banks recently told CBS News that illegal border crossings at the US southern border are down 94% from the same period last year. Banks credited the many executive actions taken by President Trump for the significant decline in illegal immigration. Cracking down on illegal immigration and arresting criminals is good policy, but it\u2019s very different from the worst fears of mass deportations threatened on the campaign trail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The number of legal permanent residents entering the US has been remarkably consistent since 2017 \u2014 averaging roughly one million per year, except for an understandable dip during the pandemic. Legal immigration is good for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-1100x550.jpeg\" alt=\"Legal immigration is good for the US economy.\" class=\"wp-image-219850 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-1100x550.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-700x350.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-300x150.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-768x384.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati-1536x768.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/figure-1-legal-immigrati.jpeg 1800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted March 4, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/us\/en\/individual\/insights\/uncommon-sense\/why-investors-should-continue-to-climb-the-wall-of-worry\">Why Investors Should Continue to Climb the Wall of Worry<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Footnotes<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>1<\/sup>&nbsp;Policy Outlook, Strategas Research Partners, January 17, 2025.<br><sup>2<\/sup>\u201cPersonal Income and Outlays, January 2025,\u201d Bureau of Economic Analysis, February 28, 20205<br><sup>3<\/sup>&nbsp;National Association of Realtors, February 27, 2025.<br><sup>4<\/sup>&nbsp;S&amp;P Global Flash US PMI\u00ae, February 27, 2025.<br><sup>5<\/sup>&nbsp;News Release, Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 27, 2025.<br><sup>6<\/sup>&nbsp;Bloomberg Finance, L.P., February 27, 2025.<br><sup>7<\/sup>&nbsp;S&amp;P Global Flash US PMI\u00ae, February 27, 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Important Risk Information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The views expressed in this material are the views of Michael Arone through the period ended March 4, 2025, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. This document contains certain statements that may be deemed forward-looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The whole or any part of this work may not be reproduced, copied or transmitted or any of its contents disclosed to third parties without SSGA\u2019s express written consent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All information is from SSGA unless otherwise noted and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Frequent trading of ETFs could significantly increase commissions and other costs such that they may offset any savings from low fees or costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Equity securities may fluctuate in value and can decline significantly in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Commodities and commodity-index linked securities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes, or political and regulatory developments, as well as trading activity of speculators and arbitrageurs in the underlying commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>AdTrax Code:<\/strong>&nbsp;7697251.1.1.GBL.RTL<br>Expiry Date: 3\/31\/2026<br><sup>\u00a9<\/sup> 2025 State Street Corporation &#8211; All Rights Reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Brick by brick, investors are building a towering wall of worry. Trump administration actions, evolving Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy, relentless inflation, the DeepSeek debate, and a US economic growth scare have all contributed to rising investor anxiety in recent weeks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":187,"featured_media":219852,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[587,4006,7590,10995,199],"contributors-categories":[13643],"class_list":["post-219848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-economic-growth","tag-fed-policy","tag-investor-sentiment","tag-market-volatility","tag-tariffs","contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Investors Should Continue to Climb the Wall of Worry<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brick by brick, investors are building a towering wall of worry. 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