{"id":219843,"date":"2025-03-12T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-12T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219843"},"modified":"2025-03-13T12:54:16","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T16:54:16","slug":"stock-market-pining-for-price-inflation-after-cpi-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/stock-market-pining-for-price-inflation-after-cpi-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock market pining for price inflation after CPI report"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The stock market showed some rebound fight yesterday, but it ultimately suffered another technical knockout. It got back on its feet this morning ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It did so aided by the following influences:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An expectation that the market is primed for a bounce given the speed and scope of recent losses (at its low yesterday, the S&amp;P 500 briefly entered into &#8220;correction territory,&#8221; defined as a 10%+ pullback from the prior high it reached on February 19).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rebound action in the mega-cap stocks, which have been among the hardest hit stocks during the sell-off.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The prospect of a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire agreement.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The House passed a continuing resolution (217-213) that will fund the government through September 30; the bill now heads to the Senate where it will need to pass to avert a government shutdown after March 14.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The MBA&#8217;s weekly Mortgage Applications Index increasing 11.2%, demonstrating how lower mortgage rates can stoke refinancing and purchase application interest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite the sunny disposition in the equity futures market, the skies weren&#8217;t exactly all clear.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The 25% tariff rate on steel and aluminum imports goes into effect today.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The European Commission announced countermeasures on up to EUR26 billion of exports to the U.S. in response to the steel and aluminum tariffs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Goldman Sachs cut its year-end price target for the S&amp;P 500 to 6,200 from 6,500.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The February CPI brought some headline sunshine. Total CPI, tempered by a 0.1% decline in new vehicle prices, was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.5% increase in January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.4% increase in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.8%, versus 3.0% in January, and core CPI was up 3.1%, versus 3.2% in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The key takeaway from the report is that inflation overall is still sticking comfortably above the Fed&#8217;s 2.0% target, and now with tariff actions ramping up &#8212; and &#8220;reciprocal tariffs&#8221; coming April 2 &#8212; confidence has been shaken that future inflation reports will convey undeniably pleasing inflation data.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.96% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.31%. On a related note, there is a $54 billion 10-yr note auction today with results announced at 1:00 p.m. ET, shortly before the release of the February Treasury Budget at 2:00 p.m. ET.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The equity futures market saw a knee-jerk spike on the CPI headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up more than 500 points. Things have settled back a bit, yet the early gains remain solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are up 64 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 303 points and are trading 1.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 278 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That leaves the major indices in-line for a higher start, but of course that means little for a market that is pining for a higher finish and a day of trading that is devoid of selling into strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted March 12, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">Stock market pining for price inflation after CPI report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stock market got back on its feet this morning ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":26210,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[14272,9822,18335,18647,18648],"contributors-categories":[13589],"class_list":{"0":"post-219843","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-cpi-report","14":"tag-equity-futures","15":"tag-inflation-concerns","16":"tag-stock-market-rebound","17":"tag-tariff-impact","18":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stock market pining for price inflation after CPI report<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market got back on its feet this morning ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI).\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219843\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock market pining for price inflation after CPI report | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The stock market got back on its feet this morning ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET release of the February Consumer Price Index (CPI).\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/stock-market-pining-for-price-inflation-after-cpi-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-03-12T13:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-03-13T16:54:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2019\/11\/sign-wall-street.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"540\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"NewsArticle\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/stock-market-pining-for-price-inflation-after-cpi-report\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.com\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/stock-market-pining-for-price-inflation-after-cpi-report\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Patrick J. 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