{"id":219695,"date":"2025-03-10T12:52:32","date_gmt":"2025-03-10T16:52:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219695"},"modified":"2025-03-13T15:54:05","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T19:54:05","slug":"growth-fears-hit-wall-street","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/growth-fears-hit-wall-street\/","title":{"rendered":"Growth Fears Hit Wall Street: March 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Investors are running for the hills today as growth fears rattle Wall Street. First it was Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent remarking that the nation is undergoing a detox following decades of being conditioned to significant fiscal deficits. Then it was President Trump stating that the country is in a period of transition, alluding to the short-term pain the Executive Branch is willing to tolerate ahead of the significant progress that the administration envisions. Meanwhile, heightening trade tensions and austerity prospects are narrowing the path for double-digit corporate earnings expansion, causing traders to grab Treasurys across the curve, equity volatility protection and IBKR ForecastTrader Contracts that are immune to traditional market turbulence. Furthermore, IBKR ForecastTraders are adding to the number of Fed rate cuts expected this year in light of the potential for a deterioration in employment conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors Dump Stocks, Pump Treasurys<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Stocks are getting crushed as economic slowdown worries cloud the outlook for corporate earnings growth. Meanwhile, investors are worried that the Fed and Trump puts appear way out of the money considering that the central bank is remaining relatively neutral on monetary policy messaging while the White House stays on track with its short-term pain, medium-term gain model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Traders are unloading equities with all major domestic benchmarks taking sharp losses. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial gauges are lower by 3.3%, 2.1%, 1.7% and 0.9%. Sectoral breadth is negative, but not as deep as you\u2019d expect with so much red on the screen. Investors are scooping up shares in the defensive consumer staple, utilities and healthcare segments as well as the real estate and energy areas, with those five components gaining on the session. Representing the laggards, however, are technology, communication services and consumer discretionary, which are down 3.8%, 2.2% and 2.1%. Folks are rushing into the Treasury complex with the 2- and 10-year maturities changing hands at 3.92% and 4.21%, 8 and 9 basis points (bps) lighter on the session. The greenback is near its flatline though, as it appreciates against the pound sterling, yuan and loonie but depreciates relative to the euro, franc, yen and Aussie dollar. Commodities are also getting creamed as risk assets sell off with copper, silver, crude oil, lumber and gold losing 0.9%, 0.8%, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2% on softer demand prospects across the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Search of Undervalued Opportunities<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Bearing in mind the elevated uncertainty and extended valuations in many areas of traditional assets, the IBKR Forecast Contract prediction market is an alternative to quintessential choices in investing. The instruments provide many undervalued opportunities related to economic indicators, Treasury yields, central bank moves, elections, government policies, environmental changes, etc. that could be used to speculate for capital gains or to hedge an equity, fixed-income, real estate or commodity book. Furthermore, the marketplace\u2019s contracts feature an interest-like incentive coupon and offer durations for some settlements that are as long as a decade away. Finally, the economic calendar has plenty of IBKR ForecastContract opportunities this week with big releases coming up related to the labor market<\/a>, inflation<\/a> and consumer sentiment<\/a>. While today has been quiet from a data perspective, the rest of the week won\u2019t be, as job openings, the Consumer and Producer Price indices, initial unemployment claims and consumer sentiment may send markets on a wild ride while ForecastTraders can rely on their rational thinking and investment strategy to optimally time the undervalued \u201cYes\u201d or \u201cNo\u201d choices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ForecastEx Pick of The Week<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick and Senior Economist Jos\u00e9 Torres like the \u201cYes\u201d Forecast Contract <\/a>for a figure above 3% y\/y in this Thursday’s Producer Price Index. The \u201cYes,\u201d currently priced at $0.53, pays out a dollar if correct.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"IBKR<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video here<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

International Roundup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Deflation Hits China<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s efforts to boost domestic consumption just hit a major hurdle\u2014deflation. The country\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.7% y\/y and 0.2% m\/m in February, reversing from increases of 0.5% and 0.7% in the first month of the year, according to China\u2019s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The declines were significantly worse than the consensus estimates for declines of 0.5% and 0.1% y\/y and m\/m, respectively. Deflation can be a disincentive for shoppers because it can cause consumers to wait for additional price declines before heading to cash registers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An earlier than normal Lunar New Year contributed to the decline as demand associated because the holiday occurred entirely in January rather than being split between the first and second months of the year. China\u2019s economy continues to suffer from underutilized manufacturing capacity, employment uncertainty, weak consumer spending and fears about trade tensions with the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the country\u2019s Producer Price Index sank 2.2% y\/y, rising slightly from the -2.3% in January but coming in worse than forecast for a 2.1% fall. The gauge of factory gate prices has dropped every month since October 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Investors are running for the hills today as growth fears rattle Wall Street.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":219704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12711,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[6099,1117,199,335],"contributors-categories":[13760],"class_list":{"0":"post-219695","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-economic-landscape","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-job-market","15":"tag-recession","16":"tag-tariffs","17":"tag-trump","18":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGrowth Fears Hit Wall Street: March 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/stock-laptop-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219695","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219695"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219695\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219695"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219695"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219695"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=219695"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}