{"id":219397,"date":"2025-03-04T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-04T17:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219397"},"modified":"2025-03-06T11:56:35","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T16:56:35","slug":"like-a-lead-balloon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/like-a-lead-balloon\/","title":{"rendered":"Like a Lead Balloon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It is said that the name \u201cLed Zeppelin\u201d was coined by Keith Moon when Jimmy Page proposed starting a band together after the \u201cBeck\u2019s Bolero<\/a>\u201d session.[i]<\/a>\u00a0 Keith is said to have replied<\/a>, \u201cit won\u2019t just go down like a lead balloon, it will be a lead zeppelin.\u201d\u00a0 Moon kept his role in the The Who, but Page seemed to do quite well with band he eventually formed.\u00a0 The tie-in to today\u2019s market is that I\u2019m afraid that no one told the President that to tariff implementation would go over similarly with investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday\u2019s trading got ugly quickly.  The first leg of the decline should not have been unexpected, considering that we had an epic end-of-month markup just before Friday\u2019s close.  The early declines were simply the market giving back those suspicious late gains from the prior session.  But there was no way around the tariff promise at the end of President Trump\u2019s media event for TSMC, which occurred at about 2:42 ET. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Index, 3-Days, 5-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering the near misses that accompanied prior tariff threats regarding Mexico, Canada and others, the market had been in a bit of wait-and-see mode about tariffs \u2013 not willing to react too much until they seemed imminent.  There was some hope that a reprieve might have been announced at tonight\u2019s joint session of Congress, but it was unequivocal that tariff implementation would indeed occur before the speech. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a result, we\u2019ve given back nearly all of the post-election rally.  For reference, SPX closed at 5782.76 on Election Day, with a gap to 5864.89 on the next day\u2019s open.  As I type this, we\u2019re below the lowest level of November 5th<\/sup>, and have closed the gap between the Election Day close and the next day\u2019s open (that said, the gap was already closed on Jan 13th<\/sup>).  The open question is whether today\u2019s move is capitulation or confirmation of a medium-term top.  Considering that today is shaping up to be an outside reversal \u2013 higher intraday high today accompanied by a close below Friday\u2019s low, the market has some work to do if a bounce is in order.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Index, 4-Months, 1-Hour Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, could a bounce be in order?  Certainly.  Both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) indices tested their 200-day moving averages successfully this morning, and one could certainly posit that a bounce is in order after such sharp recent selloffs.  We can see from the charts below that while both indices might have briefly breached their 200-day averages during the past two years, that long-term trend has held.  It reasonable for risk-tolerant traders to take a shot at finding a tradeable bottom around these levels.  As I type this, the bounce seems to be occurring.  Whether it sticks has much to do with overall risk tolerance and exogenous events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SPX Index, 5-Years, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"SPX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NDX Index, 5-Years, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"NDX<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to remember that intraday moves can be exacerbated during periods of higher volatility because liquidity can become constrained.  I believe that I\u2019ve discussed[ii]<\/a> the sign that used to hang above my desk when we were active options market makers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Raise vols<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Widen spreads<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Shrink sizes<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    These were the standard defensive moves that we undertook when markets got hectic.  The logic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. When there is high demand for anything, one should expect prices to rise.  The same applies for volatility protection.  The marketplace was eager to buy volatility, so this reflects normal supply and demand.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. This reflects both uncertainty and supply\/demand.  Wider spreads mean that buyers will need to pay a greater premium to buy, and this also protects the market maker against if the mood changes<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. The amount of capital that one is willing to risk should change with market conditions.  The riskier the market environment, the smaller the desired commitment.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

      It should be clear that the latter two diminish market liquidity.  While I can\u2019t be 100% certain that current market-makers utilize that rubric, I\u2019d be shocked if they didn\u2019t do something similar.  It\u2019s a basic form of both self-preservation and profit maximization.  It also means that relatively modest amounts of buying and selling can move prices substantially when buyers and sellers are sufficiently motivated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      My advice under those circumstances is to think like a market maker.  Lower your risk tolerance, raise your price targets, and get paid to provide liquidity by using limit orders inside the wider markets instead of chasing stocks and options.  I\u2019m not sure that everyone will take this to heart in this FOMO-driven environment.  We\u2019ve seen not only a willingness to buy dips, which can be done using that suggested tactic, but also a desire to chase rallies.  That might work, but realize that rather than exploiting market inefficiency, you\u2019re facilitating it.  If you chase, you make more money for whomever is on the other side of the trade.  Is that what you really want to be doing right now?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n\n\n\n

      [i]<\/a> Listen for \u201cMoon the Loon\u2019s\u201d scream at the 1:32 mark<\/a> that introduces Zep\u2019s future sound and perhaps the onset of all heavy rock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      [ii]<\/a> I can\u2019t find the link where I explained this topic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      It is said that the name \u201cLed Zeppelin\u201d was coined by Keith Moon when Jimmy Page proposed starting a band together after the \u201cBeck\u2019s Bolero\u201d session. Keith is said to have replied, \u201cit won\u2019t just go down like a lead balloon, it will be a lead zeppelin.\u201d Moon kept his role in the The Who, but Page. The tie-in to today\u2019s market is that I\u2019m afraid that no one told the President that to tariff implementation would go over similarly with investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":219414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[1666,207,4109,199,860],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-219397","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-liquidity","16":"tag-spx","17":"tag-stock-market","18":"tag-tariffs","19":"tag-volatility","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLike a Lead Balloon | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It is said that the name \u201cLed Zeppelin\u201d was coined by Keith Moon when Jimmy Page proposed starting a band together after the \u201cBeck\u2019s Bolero\u201d...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219397\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Like a Lead Balloon | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It is said that the name \u201cLed Zeppelin\u201d was coined by Keith Moon when Jimmy Page proposed starting a band together after the \u201cBeck\u2019s Bolero\u201d session. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets several media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/03\/tax-ballon-featured.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=219397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/219414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=219397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=219397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=219397"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=219397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}