{"id":219177,"date":"2025-02-27T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-27T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=219177"},"modified":"2025-03-13T15:25:54","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T19:25:54","slug":"what-scares-the-sp-500","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/what-scares-the-sp-500\/","title":{"rendered":"What scares the S&amp;P 500?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-quick-read\">Quick Read<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity option market pricing offers a unique way to quantify investor attention across growth, inflation, and policy events.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the second half of 2024 the risk premia associated with inflation releases declined relative to labor market data as the Fed shifted focus toward labor market and away from inflation risk. With elevated S&amp;P 500 Index concentration and the market leadership of the artificial intelligence (AI) theme, some single company earnings (NVIDIA) have been rising risk events for the entire index.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-pay-attention-to-macro-news\">Pay attention to macro news<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The types of macro events driving markets and dominating financial news and broker reports shift over time. Some periods are dominated by Federal Reserve meeting days, others by Consumer Price Index (CPI) or Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), or even&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/financial-professionals\/insights\/global-election-investing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">election days<\/a>. We can quantify such shifts in attention by using index options data and looking at implied equity index moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Trading volumes in single-day S&amp;P 500 options have been growing and, by linking them to macro news release dates, we can better understand shifts in how important the market believes these releases are for the broad equity market. The visual below plots the time series of event risk scores in recent years. As has been the case since the beginning of the monetary hiking cycle in 2022, Fed meeting days were typically the most important macro risk events for equities throughout 2024. This data also reveals an upward shift in relative importance of&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/individual\/insights\/macro-outlook\">labor market data starting in the summer of 2024<\/a>. That\u2019s consistent with market concerns about a rising unemployment rate shifting focus away from the inflation side of the Fed\u2019s dual mandate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-s-amp-p-500-risk-premia-on-major-macro-data-days-show-a-decline-in-perceived-market-risk-around-inflation\"><strong>S&amp;P 500 risk premia on major macro data days show a decline in perceived market risk around inflation<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"639\" height=\"290\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102944.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 risk premia on major macro data days show a decline in perceived market risk around inflation\" class=\"wp-image-219182 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102944.png 639w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102944-300x136.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) 100vw, 639px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 639px; aspect-ratio: 639\/290;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: BlackRock, with data from CBOE, as of January 27, 2025. Values are &#8216;excess&#8217; moves priced into the SPX, so a value of 1 indicates a 1% &#8216;extra&#8217; SPX move on that day (vs. a baseline &#8216;normal&#8217; move).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-elections-and-ai-earnings\">Elections and AI earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Another way that we can use daily options data to understand shifts in the relevant equity risk drivers is to simply look at the days with the highest risk scores and then match them to a calendar of macro events. The table below shows the highest implied equity volatility days for 2024 and the associated event. Unsurprisingly, the November election topped the charts and was followed by some of the growth, inflation, and policy days that were plotted in the chart above. This table also highlights an important micro driver of market-level risk in 2024 \u2013 three of the top 15 riskiest days for the S&amp;P 500 in 2024 were NVIDIA earnings release days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-elections-and-ai-earnings-were-key-risk-drivers-in-2024\"><strong>Elections and AI earnings were key risk drivers in 2024<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"643\" height=\"538\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102908.png\" alt=\"Elections and AI earnings were key risk drivers in 2024\" class=\"wp-image-219180 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102908.png 643w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Screenshot-2025-02-27-102908-300x251.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 643px) 100vw, 643px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 643px; aspect-ratio: 643\/538;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: BlackRock, with data from CBOE, as of January 27, 2025. Values are &#8216;excess&#8217; moves priced into the SPX, so a value of 1 indicates a 1% &#8216;extra&#8217; SPX move on that day (vs. a baseline &#8216;normal&#8217; move).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Single company corporate earnings do not typically influence the overall riskiness of a broadly diversified index, particularly one that contains 500 distinct companies. The ability of NVIDIA earnings days to impact overall S&amp;P 500 excess volatility in 2024 provides some insight into two important and related phenomena that we believe will be important for risk assets in 2025:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Index concentration:<\/strong>&nbsp;The S&amp;P is currently highly concentrated with the 10 largest companies comprising 38% of the index<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI themes:<\/strong>&nbsp;A constellation of outperformers across equity markets have been linked to AI-related themes, like US power demand<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-do-these-views-mean-for-portfolio-positioning\">What do these views mean for portfolio positioning?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Portfolio positioning shifted underweight US equities relative to non-US equities in the aftermath of the US election, driven primarily by pricing and flows insights. In our view, the elevated concentration of the US equity index in conjunction with unbalanced positioning makes the S&amp;P 500 less attractive than non-US markets on a tactical horizon at the outset of 2025. We have also added to directional short duration positioning in US Treasuries informed by the market\u2019s relatively benign perception of inflation risk despite rising&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/individual\/insights\/insurance-inflation\">upside risks to the inflation outlook<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted February 21, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/individual\/insights\/what-scares-sp500\">What scares the S&amp;P 500?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Performance data quoted represents past performance and is no guarantee of future results. Investment returns and principal values may fluctuate so that an investor\u2019s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. All returns assume reinvestment of dividends and capital gains. Current performance may be lower or higher than that shown. Refer to blackrock.com for most recent month-end performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>To obtain more information on the fund, including the Morningstar time period ratings and standardized average annual total returns as of the most recent calendar quarter and current month-end, please visit&nbsp;<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackrock.com\/us\/financial-professionals\/products\/227386\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Tactical Opportunities Fund<\/strong><\/a><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Morningstar Rating<sup>TM<\/sup>&nbsp;for funds, or &#8220;star rating,&#8221; is calculated for managed products (including mutual funds, variable annuity and variable life subaccounts, exchange-traded funds, closed-end funds, and separate accounts) with at least a three-year history. Exchange-traded funds and open-ended mutual funds are considered a single population for comparative purposes. It is calculated based on a Morningstar Risk-Adjusted Return measure that accounts for variation in a managed product&#8217;s monthly excess performance, placing more emphasis on downward variations and rewarding consistent performance. The top 10% of products in each product category receive 5 stars, the next 22.5% receive 4 stars, the next 35% receive 3 stars, the next 22.5% receive 2 stars, and the bottom 10% receive 1 star. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a managed product is derived from a weighted average of the performance figures associated with its three-, five-, and 10-year (if applicable) Morningstar Rating metrics. The weights are: 100% three-year rating for 36-59 months of total returns, 60% five-year rating\/40% three-year rating for 60-119 months of total returns, and 50% 10-year rating\/30% five-year rating\/20% three-year rating for 120 or more months of total returns. While the 10-year overall star rating formula seems to give the most weight to the 10-year period, the most recent three-year period actually has the greatest impact because it is included in all three rating periods.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Equity option market pricing offers a unique way to quantify investor attention across growth, inflation, and policy events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1139,"featured_media":219182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[18696,12744,12324,11153,910],"contributors-categories":[13587],"class_list":{"0":"post-219177","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-ai-theme","15":"tag-equity-options","16":"tag-market-risk","17":"tag-portfolio-positioning","18":"tag-sp-500","19":"contributors-categories-blackrock"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) 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