{"id":218944,"date":"2025-02-21T10:50:58","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T15:50:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218944"},"modified":"2025-02-24T03:58:01","modified_gmt":"2025-02-24T08:58:01","slug":"chart-advisor-dollar-tailwind-ahead-for-em-equity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-dollar-tailwind-ahead-for-em-equity\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Dollar Tailwind Ahead for EM Equity?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Shane Murphy, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Dollar Tailwind Ahead for EM Equity?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Watch Out for US Home Construction\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Quantum Computing + Momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Dollar Tailwind Ahead for EM Equity?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Emerging Market (EM) equity is receiving a lot of attention as of late \u2013 and rightfully so. The MSCI EM Index (USD) is outperforming the S&P 500 by over 3.5% year-to-date. Participation is not just limited to China \u2013 markets such as South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa are joining the party. This is all despite a struggling and beaten down India equity market. India stocks represent ~20% of the EM Index. The MSCI India Index (USD) is -4.9% year-to-date and -10.7% over the trailing 6-months. Despite this, EM Equity is outperforming nearly every other asset class year-to-date.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above chart displays the ratio of EM Equity to S&P 500 Index \u2013 the ratio is overlayed with the US Dollar Index, set on an inverted scale. The chart highlights how a weak or declining dollar can provide a tailwind to EM stocks. The dollar is expected to remain strong under the current Trump Administration, but so far in 2025 the greenback continues to move counter-trend and is now testing a well-defined support level ~106. EM stocks can certainly advance alongside a strong dollar, but EM bulls are hoping for a helpful boost from King Dollar.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Watch Out for US Home Construction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above chart displays the Dow Jones US Home Construction Index, including the index\u2019s 200-day simple moving average. To end 2024, the index broke below its 200-day average. In the weeks that followed, the industry group failed to recover above the 200-day and is now breaking down to new lows. The chart also highlights prior breaks below the 200-day average and the resulting\u00a0drawdown<\/a>. Bad things tend to happen below a declining 200-day average. From a trend-following perspective, there isn\u2019t much to like about this industry group index.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Quantum Computing + Momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quantum computing stocks are receiving a ton of attention given the global boom in artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies. The below chart highlights an index of quantum computing \/ semiconductor stocks. The lower pane represents the 200-day\u00a0Disparity Index<\/a>. The Disparity index measures how far away an asset\u2019s price is from a set moving average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Some investors view a high reading as indication of the stock being over-extended, or ripe for a pullback. But for those who understand\u00a0momentum<\/a>, a high reading would indicate strong positive price momentum and therefore be assumed to continue. The prior cycle was a great example of just that. In early 2021, the 200-day Disparity index reached an historically elevated level, in the 12-months that followed, the index continued its trek gaining ~20%. Now, that isn\u2019t to say we\u2019ll see the same sequence play out \u2013 highly doubtful – but in my experience, trends can continue on for a lot longer than majority of investors assume they will. Just because an indicator is flashing \u201coverbought\u201d doesn\u2019t mean the trend isn\u2019t valid or the asset must correct in price. Quite the contrary.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—
Originally posted 21st February 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Shane Murphy, CMT 1\/ Dollar Tailwind Ahead for EM Equity? 2\/ Watch Out for US Home Construction\u00a0 3\/ Quantum Computing + Momentum Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":218946,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,16,18,6,8,9,1031,22,23,26,3],"tags":[2605,9239,910],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-218944","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-asia","8":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","9":"category-forex","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-south-america","15":"category-stocks","16":"category-technical-analysis","17":"category-text-articles","18":"category-traders-insight","19":"tag-emerging-market","20":"tag-msci-emerging-markets-index","21":"tag-sp-500","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Dollar Tailwind Ahead for EM Equity?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Emerging Market (EM) equity is receiving a lot of attention as of late \u2013 and rightfully so. 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