{"id":218766,"date":"2025-02-14T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-14T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218766"},"modified":"2025-02-18T12:32:16","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T17:32:16","slug":"whats-eating-at-the-consumer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whats-eating-at-the-consumer\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s Eating at the Consumer?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It is typically a fool\u2019s errand to bet against the U.S. consumer.&nbsp;&nbsp; Quite frankly, we love to shop and spend.&nbsp; That\u2019s why I\u2019m concerned about the second report in just a week that shows consumer reticence.&nbsp; After a weak UMich sentiment report last Friday, January Advance Retail Sales disappointed today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The seeming nervousness of US consumers is nagging at me this morning.&nbsp; There is really no way to sugarcoat the January Advance Retail Sales report.&nbsp; Sure, revisions blunted some of the damage, but a headline drop of -0.9% when -0.2% was expected and a Control Group of -0.8% vs. +0.3% exp is quite staggering.&nbsp; There were some who expected that we might see a pre-tariff bout of spending, but if we did, that seems to be over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now combine the Retail Sales data with last week\u2019s University of Michigan data that showed sentiment that dropping from 71.1 to 67.8 and 1-year inflation expectations that jumping to 4.3% from 3.3%.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/trader-sentiment-soured-when-the-sentiment-numbers-arrived\/\">The latter usually follow pump prices<\/a>, but they barely budged. &nbsp;It\u2019s one thing to hear what people intend to do, or what they may be thinking, via a survey.&nbsp; It is another to see what actual data reveals about their activities.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where stocks and bonds might need to diverge.&nbsp; Stocks rallied yesterday, at first because <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/if-bonds-dont-mind-a-hot-ppi-why-would-stocks\/\">bonds decided that the hot PP<\/a>I print would not affect Core PCE, and then because the latest tariff announcement was rather vague.&nbsp; This morning, yields are understandably lower, but stocks seem to be taking their lead from them despite the unpleasant economic message that is causing the move.&nbsp; &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember the consumer is about 2\/3 of the economy, and if something is bugging them, that will be felt in GDP.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/underappreciating-fiscal-policy\/\">We recently wrote<\/a> about how we might be underappreciating the role that fiscal policy played in the recent economic and market advance, noting that reversing the \u201cG\u201d in the equation GDP=C+I+G+NX could negatively impact GDP.&nbsp; Now it looks as though the much bigger \u201cC\u201d might be a problem as well.&nbsp; As much as traders <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stock-traders-once-again-reveal-their-liquidity-addiction\/\">crave lower rates<\/a>, a strong economy is ultimately better for stocks than a weak economy that induces lower rates.&nbsp; (Of course, the 2024 scenario of a solid economy AND rate cuts is ideal.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking forward, the positive scenario from today\u2019s data is this: rates ease as the economy moderates and the consumer weakness is a blip that doesn\u2019t impact investors\u2019 love affair with stocks<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The flipside is a much worse scenario: the consumer and the government both slam their wallets shut, impacting GDP faster than the Fed is willing or able to operate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The base case is probably somewhere in between.&nbsp; But that points back to our oft-repeated mantra, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/dont-fight-the-tape-insure-against-it-instead\/?query=don%27t%20fight%20the%20tape%20insure&amp;query_id=viDk-C39QVyWjmg5QrTRpw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=viDk-C39QVyWjmg5QrTRpw\">don\u2019t fight the tape, insure against it instead<\/a>\u201d.&nbsp; Market momentum is too strong to fight right now, but there are sufficient pitfalls. &nbsp;Notice I that haven\u2019t really discussed tariffs today, let alone the potential that tax cuts undo fiscal discipline or the risk of deflation emanating from China\u2019s real estate debt.&nbsp; All of which have non-zero probabilities that could disrupt the currently copacetic market.&nbsp; Remember, the point of insurance is not for it to pay off, it\u2019s to prevent the buyer from being wiped out by low-probability, high-outcome events (fire, collision, medical emergencies).&nbsp; The same applies to stocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It is typically a fool\u2019s errand to bet against the U.S. consumer.\u00a0\u00a0 Quite frankly, we love to shop and spend.\u00a0 That\u2019s why I\u2019m concerned about the second report in just a week that shows consumer reticence.\u00a0 After a weak UMich sentiment report last Friday, January Advance Retail Sales disappointed today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":182829,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[459,609,527,850,1546],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-218766","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-consumer","14":"tag-economy","15":"tag-gdp","16":"tag-interest-rates","17":"tag-retail-sales","18":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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