{"id":218640,"date":"2025-02-12T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-12T17:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218640"},"modified":"2025-02-18T12:49:26","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T17:49:26","slug":"feeling-hot-hot-hot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/feeling-hot-hot-hot\/","title":{"rendered":"Feeling Hot Hot Hot"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>(Today\u2019s Theme Music: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/EhZba-P7R18\">Buster Poindexter<\/a>, of course.&nbsp; And the <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/O8tLeVkSogs\">original version<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are many days when we discuss \u201chighly anticipated numbers\u201d, only for them to match economists\u2019 consensus and for markets to then go about their usual business.&nbsp; Today\u2019s CPI report was not one of them.&nbsp; Every key metric came in above expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"526\" height=\"169\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture1-14.png\" alt=\"January CPI Report\" class=\"wp-image-218641 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture1-14.png 526w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture1-14-300x96.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 526px) 100vw, 526px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 526px; aspect-ratio: 526\/169;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\">Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is very difficult to take today\u2019s numbers in stride.&nbsp; The bond market didn\u2019t, with Treasury yields rising 8-12 basis points across the curve, though equity traders attempted to utilize their favorite playbook nonetheless shortly after the open.&nbsp; One feature of the current equity market seems to be this mantra:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Every dip is a buying opportunity. The bigger the dip, the bigger the opportunity.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Heck, did you really think that a hot inflation number would prevent Meta Platforms (META) from continuing its 17-day winning streak.&nbsp; We can\u2019t be sure how it will end the day, but META is now +0.7% higher after joining the broader market\u2019s -1% lower opening.&nbsp; The megacap tech stocks are the focus of today\u2019s dip buying, since the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) has been outperforming the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) for most of the day.&nbsp; By midday, NDX had clawed back to unchanged, even as NYSE decliners outpace advancers by more than 3:1 and more than half the S&amp;P 500 components are currently trading lower.&nbsp; Why let a dour bond market interfere with our love of tech stocks?&nbsp; And if there is enough love being shown for tech stocks, they can pull the broad indices along with them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, expectations for a rate cut have been slashed. Yesterday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">Fed Funds futures<\/a> were pricing in a cut by September and a 43% chance for another cut by year-end.&nbsp; They have now pushed back that cut expectation until December.&nbsp; Just a month ago, in the wake of a stronger than expected jobs report, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/stock-traders-once-again-reveal-their-liquidity-addiction\/\">we noted<\/a> how stock traders seemed far more concerned with the diminishing hopes for rate cuts than signals for a more robust economy.&nbsp; Ahead of that December jobs report, released on January 10<sup>th<\/sup>, traders were pricing in a full cut for June and a 72% chance for a second cut by the end of 2025.&nbsp; After that report, the first cut was pushed back to September and hopes for a second cut fell to 15%.&nbsp; Frankly, that isn\u2019t all that different from where we line up now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We also see 2-Year yields reflecting the relative stasis in rates.&nbsp; They were 4.38% on January 10<sup>th<\/sup> and 4.37% after a jump of 8.5bp as I write this.&nbsp; And 10-Year yields are lower today versus then, at 4.63% after a 10bp jump, as opposed to 4.76% then.&nbsp; Also, to put stocks into perspective, SPX closed at 5827.04 and NDX closed at 20,847.58 after that report; they are both about 4% higher today.&nbsp; So, it is any wonder why stock traders remain convinced that dip buying is the way to go?&nbsp; If something keeps working, people will keep doing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, by the way, we can fit a bullish narrative for stocks to today\u2019s inflation report.&nbsp; Stocks can indeed be a hedge against modest inflation, since earnings per share are measured in nominal terms.&nbsp; Inflation raises those nominal results, particularly for companies with relatively inelastic demand for their products.&nbsp; The largest tech stocks fit that bill, at least while the enthusiasm for all things related to AI continues.&nbsp; And thus, the dips get bought, even with a hot hot hot inflation report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are many days when we discuss \u201chighly anticipated numbers\u201d, only for them to match economists\u2019 consensus and for markets to then go about their usual business.  Today\u2019s CPI report was not one of them.  Every key metric came in above expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":206724,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1826,14272,570,18323,4919],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-218640","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-bond-market","15":"tag-cpi-report","16":"tag-inflation","17":"tag-rate-cut-expectations","18":"tag-tech-stocks","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Feeling Hot Hot Hot | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"There are many days when we discuss \u201chighly anticipated numbers\u201d, only for them to match economists\u2019 consensus and for markets to then go about...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218640\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Feeling Hot Hot Hot | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There are many days when we discuss \u201chighly anticipated numbers\u201d, only for them to match economists\u2019 consensus and for markets to then go about their usual business. 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