{"id":218564,"date":"2025-02-11T10:30:55","date_gmt":"2025-02-11T15:30:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218564"},"modified":"2025-02-11T11:27:15","modified_gmt":"2025-02-11T16:27:15","slug":"tariff-ied-markets-and-workweek-woes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/tariff-ied-markets-and-workweek-woes\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff-ied Markets and Workweek Woes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Markets are on edge as tariffs, inflation, and job data create a whirlwind of uncertainty. Join Andrew Wilkinson, Steve Sosnick, and Jose Torres as they dissect the latest economic shifts, political curveballs, and what it all means for your portfolio<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"Tariff-ied Markets and Workweek Woes\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=zzczb-17f554e-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-225\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 225<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to our monthly economics and markets edition of this IBKR podcast. I&#8217;m your host, Andrew Wilkinson. Joining me today are Steve Sosnick, Chief Market Strategist, and Jose Torres, Senior Economist. Welcome, both of you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Great to see you, Andrew. Great to see you, Jose. Happy day after the Super Bowl to both of you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi Steve. Hi Andrew.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jose, let\u2019s come to you first. The unemployment rate in January fell to 4% in an unexpected turn of fate. What are the key takeaways from you on the January employment report? &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019ve seen easing pressures, declining unemployment, and favorable revisions over the past two months. However, this month\u2019s data revealed narrow roster expansions. One key component of the jobs report\u2014the average hourly workweek\u2014fell to 34.1 hours, the lowest since March 2020 during the pandemic. Before that, you&#8217;d have to go back to 2010 to find a similarly low figure.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So what does the average hourly workweek tell us? Historically, employers tend to reduce hours before trimming their labor force. They might move full-time workers to part-time status or cut hours for part-timers.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, there were some signs of weakness in the report. Most of the gains came from private education, health services, and government\u2014three non-cyclical sectors. In the cyclical sectors, retail and other services were the only areas contributing meaningfully. Sectors like finance, construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information, transportation, and warehousing added very few jobs, ranging between 100 and 8,000. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality, mining, and professional and business services saw job losses.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Overall, despite strong wage growth and a good headline number, the composition of job growth was narrow and not particularly buoyant. The drop in the average workweek was an unwelcome surprise.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-0\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If I may, Jose, two points stood out to me. First, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% when 0.3% was expected, yet hours worked declined. That seems like living the dream\u2014getting paid more to work less! How do we reconcile these two factors?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Second, the government showed employment growth, but that might reverse in the next report. How much could that weigh on the numbers going forward?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We could see a 20,000-job drag from government employment in the coming reports, which could weigh on payroll growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for reconciling the decline in hours worked with wage pressures, I think leisure and hospitality plays a key role. That sector has been decelerating and is prone to cutting hours. Bartenders, waitstaff, and similar roles are known for this. I believe this is happening in discretionary spending categories, while other areas continue to see robust paycheck growth due to higher costs, elevated interest rates, and reduced credit availability.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s switch gears and discuss politics. Last week, there were announcements about tariffs. The market initially tumbled but later rebounded. Are we out of the woods politically? What might drive the market decisively up or down from here?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-1\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem with tariffs right now is the inconsistent messaging. The market isn\u2019t sure what to expect. As we\u2019re taping this on Monday morning, we\u2019re seeing a bit of a relief rally. On Friday, the president hinted at bilateral tariffs, possibly as soon as that day.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But this morning, there are steel and aluminum tariffs, though not in the form we expected. Eventually, the market might begin to feel like it\u2019s facing &#8220;the boy who cried wolf.&#8221; If threats aren\u2019t followed by significant action, people may start ignoring them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, we\u2019ve seen tariffs on steel, aluminum, and some Chinese goods. China responded with targeted measures that didn\u2019t disrupt the market much. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico were postponed. If these threats continue without major actions, the market may become desensitized. However, the ongoing back-and-forth remains a source of uncertainty, preventing full recoveries after market declines.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steve, I\u2019ll circle back to you on inflation. But first, Jose, we have inflation data coming out this week. How important is it, especially considering January\u2019s labor market report?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a monetary policy perspective, I don\u2019t expect this week\u2019s CPI and PPI reports to move the market significantly. January\u2019s price pressures were tame based on nowcasting tools. However, if the data comes in above expectations, it could raise concerns about goods price uncertainty related to tariffs.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, as Steve mentioned, both market participants and investors seem fatigued by tariff talk. In terms of broader policy, the Treasury Department has been more disciplined. Treasury Secretary Besant\u2019s efforts to limit spending and balance the budget incrementally have helped cap bond yields and spur a bond market rally. This gives the administration more breathing room on trade negotiations and inflation risks from tariffs and restrictive immigration policies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-2\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jose, Treasury Secretary Besant put a damper on one of our best podcasts\u2014the one you arranged with Drs. Muran and Roubini. They discussed how the Treasury was depressing interest rates by issuing too many short-term notes instead of longer-term ones. The implication was that Besant agreed with their assessment. However, the Treasury ultimately maintained its focus on managing the long end of the curve without Fed intervention.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This has contributed to the recent relief rally, as fears of more supply and higher yields in the long end didn\u2019t materialize.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steven, that\u2019s true. If the Treasury were to issue more long-term debt, it could spike yields, which the former administration tried to avoid. In 2023, we saw that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% was psychologically painful\u2014not just for equity investors but also for homebuyers and consumers financing major purchases.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steve, it\u2019s one thing for Besant to focus on 10-year bonds, but that hinges on anchoring inflation expectations. Last week\u2019s University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey suggested that the administration\u2019s honeymoon period might be over. What stood out to you in that survey?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-3\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It wasn\u2019t encouraging. Inflation expectations spiked, even though gas prices didn\u2019t seem to be the cause. The survey revealed a political divide\u2014Democrats reported significantly worse expectations, while Republicans and independents didn\u2019t change much.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This drop in consumer sentiment, combined with tariff talk, likely contributed to Friday\u2019s market decline. Despite a solid jobs report, these factors unsettled investors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jose, what are forecast traders expecting for this week\u2019s CPI?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-4\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast traders are aligned with Wall Street\u2019s consensus: a 2.9% year-over-year increase and a 0.3% month-over-month rise for headline CPI. Core inflation is expected to be 3.1% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed seems comfortable with 3% inflation, which is positive for equities because it means less tightening. However, if inflation climbs above 4%, the Fed will have to act, creating risks\u2014especially from potential tariff and immigration policies. That said, domestic policies and measures from the Treasury Department are helping to counter those risks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jose, thanks for joining me today.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-5\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My pleasure. Thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-6\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steve, thanks for being here.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-steve-sosnick-nbsp-4\"><strong>Steve Sosnick<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">My pleasure, as always, Andrew. Great to see you both.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-7\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And to our audience, don\u2019t forget to subscribe to our channel wherever you download your podcasts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are on edge as tariffs, inflation, and job data create a whirlwind of uncertainty. Join Andrew Wilkinson, Steve Sosnick, and Jose Torres as they dissect the latest economic shifts, political curveballs, and what it all means for your portfolio<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":218565,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-218564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tariff-ied Markets and Workweek Woes | IBKR Podcasts<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Markets are on edge as tariffs, inflation, and job data create a whirlwind of uncertainty. 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