{"id":218433,"date":"2025-02-07T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218433"},"modified":"2025-02-07T10:51:22","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T15:51:22","slug":"cold-war-2-0-russia-china-and-the-u-s-clash-over-arctic-resources","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/cold-war-2-0-russia-china-and-the-u-s-clash-over-arctic-resources\/","title":{"rendered":"Cold War 2.0? Russia, China and the U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tech stocks are selling off sharply today, triggered by concerns that China\u2019s just-released DeepSeek AI assistant may steal the thunder from U.S.-based platforms like OpenAI\u2019s ChatGPT. Before this week, however, markets have been responding with gusto since November\u2019s presidential election, especially in a few key\u2014and perhaps expected\u2014industries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest winner so far was the automobile industry, led by Tesla, up an impressive 70% since Election Day as of Friday. General Motors, while not quite as flashy, was up about 5%. Despite President Donald Trump\u2019s rollback of Biden-era electric vehicle (EV) mandates, Tesla has continued to command investor confidence, possibly due to Elon Musk\u2019s close ties to the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Electricity producers also saw a boost, driven by the AI boom. Data centers, which currently consume 1-2% of global power, could grow to 3-4% by the end of the decade,<\/a> according to Goldman Sachs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And let\u2019s not forget the airlines industry. United Airlines, up 33%, capitalized on record-breaking TSA screenings in 2024,<\/a> operating its largest-ever domestic schedule and expanding international routes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I also want to share the best performing industries for the five-day period as of last week, as President Trump has signed an historical number of executive orders (EOs) since taking office. The list includes many of the same areas\u2014power generation, construction & engineering, consumer finance, retail\u2014but there\u2019s an interesting addition: industrial REITs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The industrial REIT ticker is represented by a single stock, Prologis, the world\u2019s largest industrial property developer. According to the Wall Street Journal, the company has seen its warehouse business explode since the election.<\/a> It\u2019s also been dipping its toes in the white-hot data center market, selling a facility in the fourth quarter, with more in the pipeline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Arctic Matters<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But let\u2019s pivot to a different story\u2014one unfolding far from Wall Street. I recently spoke with Jonathan Roth, founder of ResourceWars.com and a veteran of capital markets, who highlighted an increasingly urgent issue: the Arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a>As polar ice caps melt, new opportunities\u2014and risks\u2014are emerging in this increasingly contested region. Nations like the U.S., Russia and China are jockeying for influence, not only to access the Arctic\u2019s vast natural resources but also to secure strategic military and trading advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenland, in particular, is shaping up to be a geopolitical hotspot, and it\u2019s no wonder that Trump has repeated his interest in acquiring the island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Treasure Trove Beneath the Ice<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During our conversation, Jonathan emphasized the Arctic\u2019s immense resource wealth. The region is home to some of the world\u2019s largest untapped reserves of natural resources. A 2008 study by the U.S. Geological Survey says that the Arctic holds 1,670 trillion cubic feet of natural gas<\/a> and other fuels\u2014equivalent to Russia\u2019s entire oil reserves and three times those of the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenland, the world\u2019s largest island that isn\u2019t a continent, is rich in critical minerals<\/a> essential for modern technologies, including rare earth metals, graphite, niobium and titanium. These materials are vital for everything from smartphones to EVs to military hardware.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ice loss in the Danish territory has also exposed significant deposits of lithium, hafnium, uranium and gold. A 2023 survey by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland evaluated 38 raw materials on the island,<\/a> most of which have high or moderate potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia\u2019s Arctic Ambitions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jonathan also pointed out that Russia has been quietly building its Arctic presence for over a decade. It now has the most significant military presence in the region, with refurbished Soviet-era bases and a fleet of nuclear-powered icebreakers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, some 38 million metric tons of cargo<\/a> were shipped through Russia\u2019s Northern Sea Route (NSR), a record amount for a single year and a nearly tenfold increase from a decade earlier. The NSR is central to President Vladimir Putin\u2019s vision of a shipping lane that rivals the Suez and Panama Canal, but challenges like shallow, ice-filled waters and foggy conditions mean the route has a long way to go before becoming a global sea lane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Annual<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The country\u2019s Arctic ambitions are about more than just trade. The region is a cornerstone of its strategy to secure military and economic power. This poses a significant concern for the U.S. and its allies, especially as climate change accelerates ice melt and opens up new access routes. Russia\u2019s dominance in the Arctic could disrupt global trade, heighten geopolitical tensions and undermine U.S. strategic interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Lags in Icebreaker Capabilities<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While Russia boasts dozens of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered vessels, the U.S. is woefully behind. Jonathan highlighted that the last heavy polar icebreaker built by the U.S., the Polar Star,<\/em> was commissioned nearly 50 years ago, in 1976. Meanwhile, the newer Polar Security Cutter (PSC) class of icebreakers, intended to bolster U.S. capabilities, has faced years of delays and budget overruns.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Number<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Recognizing this, the U.S. has partnered with Canada and Finland under the ICE Pact<\/a> to develop a new generation of icebreakers. Finland, which designs 80% of the world\u2019s icebreakers,<\/a> brings valuable expertise to the table.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenland: A Strategic Prize<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Greenland\u2019s importance extends beyond its resource wealth. Jonathan noted the island occupies a key position along two potential Arctic shipping routes\u2014the Northwest Passage and the Transpolar Sea Route. As sea ice continues to melt, these routes could significantly reduce shipping times and bypass traditional chokepoints like the Suez and Panama Canals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greenland is also home to Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base), a critical U.S. military installation for missile early warning and space surveillance. The base\u2019s strategic value is compounded by Greenland\u2019s role in the so-called GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom)\u2014a naval chokepoint in the North Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investment in Pituffik has been inconsistent, however, and its importance has waned since the Cold War.<\/a> Renewed attention to Greenland could help the U.S. counter Russia\u2019s growing Arctic dominance and China\u2019s ambitions as a \u201cnear-Arctic\u201d power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at Stake<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Arctic\u2019s significance isn\u2019t just about resources or shipping lanes. It\u2019s about power, influence and the ability to shape the future of global trade and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For investors, the region offers opportunities in sectors like energy, mining and infrastructure. Companies involved in rare earth mining, icebreaker construction and Arctic logistics could see significant growth as nations ramp up their Arctic investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, investors should keep a close eye on these developments. The Arctic may be cold, but the race for its riches is heating up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To watch my full interview with Jonathan Roth,\u00a0<\/em><\/strong>click here!<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted January 27, 2025 – Cold War 2.0? Russia, China and the U.S. Clash Over Arctic Resources<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (12\/31\/2024): Tesla Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Before this week, however, markets have been responding with gusto since November\u2019s presidential election, especially in a few key\u2014and perhaps expected\u2014industries.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4,5,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13633],"class_list":{"0":"post-218433","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-asia","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-us-global-investors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nCold War 2.0? 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