{"id":218285,"date":"2025-02-04T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-04T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=218285"},"modified":"2025-02-05T04:05:59","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T09:05:59","slug":"moving-on-from-tariffs-to-alphabet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/moving-on-from-tariffs-to-alphabet\/","title":{"rendered":"Moving On From Tariffs to Alphabet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The big tariff scare has proven to be far less concerning than feared.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/tariffs-or-not-and-volatility\/\">Yesterday morning we learned<\/a> that 25% tariffs on Mexico will be delayed for another month, and after the close, we learned the same for Canada.&nbsp; Overnight, even though 10% tariffs were implemented against China, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=7f4ea22c2c8feaa73c7760aad3af37a52528f05bbd4de13ab62fdaa0bdf99c76JmltdHM9MTczODYyNzIwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=396fb4cb-d070-6bc1-3e1a-a19ad1c06ae6&amp;psq=china+tariffs+retaliation&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYnVzaW5lc3NpbnNpZGVyLmNvbS9jaGluYS10YXJpZmZzLXRydW1wLWNhbmFkYS1tZXhpY28tdHJhZGUtd2FyLTIwMjUtMiM6fjp0ZXh0PUNoaW5hJTIwaGl0JTIwYmFjayUyMGF0JTIwUHJlc2lkZW50JTIwRG9uYWxkJTIwVHJ1bXAlMjdzJTIwdHJhZGUsb24lMjBjcnVkZSUyMG9pbCUyQyUyMGFncmljdWx0dXJhbCUyMG1hY2hpbmVyeSUyQyUyMGFuZCUyMHNvbWUlMjB2ZWhpY2xlcy4&amp;ntb=1\">their retaliation is more targeted<\/a> than our across-the-board approach.&nbsp; As a result, it is quite understandable why markets got off to a solid start this morning.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet this morning\u2019s rally only closes yesterday\u2019s opening gap in the S&amp;P 500 (SPX).&nbsp; We are currently trading around last week\u2019s close, but a bit more than 1% below where we were when the tariff implementation was confirmed on Friday afternoon:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-3-days-1-minute-candles\"><strong><em>SPX, 3-Days, 1-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1047\" height=\"526\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-6.png\" alt=\"SPX, 3-Days, 1-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-218286 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-6.png 1047w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-6-700x352.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-6-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-6-768x386.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1047px) 100vw, 1047px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1047px; aspect-ratio: 1047\/526;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is doing a bit better, but also not yet back to Friday\u2019s peak:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ndx-3-days-1-minute-candles\"><strong><em>NDX, 3-Days, 1-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1040\" height=\"500\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-9.png\" alt=\"NDX, 3-Days, 1-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-218289 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-9.png 1040w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-9-700x337.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-9-300x144.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-9-768x369.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1040px) 100vw, 1040px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1040px; aspect-ratio: 1040\/500;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My interpretation is that investors have properly adjusted to the current reality about tariffs \u2013 better than feared, but not back to the pre-tariff status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, we can shift our focus to this afternoon\u2019s big event, earnings from Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG).&nbsp; The stock is up about +20% in the past three months, thanks not only to a solid market, but also to enthusiasm for its quantum computing advances.&nbsp; That raises the stakes somewhat for today\u2019s report, since investors will likely be hoping not only for the usual earnings and revenue guidance \u2013 which GOOGL is notoriously sparse with \u2013 but also for more clues about when the company might be able to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=3ff0141272a92e2f8a2fa99509c5a471fc79d27732fbeb1286c136489ce44b44JmltdHM9MTczODYyNzIwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=396fb4cb-d070-6bc1-3e1a-a19ad1c06ae6&amp;psq=alphabet+willow+chip&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9ibG9nLmdvb2dsZS90ZWNobm9sb2d5L3Jlc2VhcmNoL2dvb2dsZS13aWxsb3ctcXVhbnR1bS1jaGlwLw&amp;ntb=1\">commercialize its Willow chip<\/a>.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The IBKR Probability Lab shows modest risk aversion, with the peak outcome for GOOGL options expiring on Friday in the $198-$202 range, slightly below the current $204:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-googl-options-expiring-february-7th\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for GOOGL Options Expiring February 7th<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"883\" height=\"372\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-7.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for GOOGL Options Expiring February 7th\" class=\"wp-image-218287 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-7.png 883w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-7-700x295.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-7-300x126.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-7-768x324.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 883px) 100vw, 883px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 883px; aspect-ratio: 883\/372;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Skews are generally flattish, with only a modest bias to the downside.&nbsp; Interest in quantum computing remains strong, so it is clear that there are traders willing to speculate on an upside move.&nbsp; The daily implied volatility of 5.6% is a bit modest when compared to the average 6.8% move after the past six reports (+2.82%, -5.04%, +10.22%, -7.50%, -9.51%, +5.78%):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-skews-for-googl-options-expiring-february-7-th-top-14-th-middle-21-st-bottom\"><strong><em>Skews for GOOGL Options Expiring February 7<sup>th<\/sup> (top), 14<sup>th<\/sup> (middle), 21<sup>st<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1070\" height=\"447\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-8.png\" alt=\"Skews for GOOGL Options Expiring February 7th (top), 14th (middle), 21st (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-218288 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-8.png 1070w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-8-700x292.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-8-300x125.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/image-8-768x321.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1070px) 100vw, 1070px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1070px; aspect-ratio: 1070\/447;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In general, traders feel relieved today.&nbsp; GOOGL earnings will help determine if that continues after today\u2019s close.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The big tariff scare has proven to be far less concerning than feared.\u00a0 Yesterday morning we learned that 25% tariffs on Mexico will be delayed for another month, and after the close, we learned the same for Canada.\u00a0 Overnight, even though 10% tariffs were implemented against China, their retaliation is more targeted than our across-the-board approach.\u00a0 As a result, it is quite understandable why markets got off to a solid start this morning.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":208857,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,19,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-218285","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-options","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Moving On From 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