Strong domestic and foreign demand catapulted the US manufacturing into expansion for the first time since April. The Institute for Supply Management\u2019s (ISM) Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index for manufacturing hit 50.9 in January, exceeding the expansion-contraction threshold of 50, the median estimate of 49.8 and December\u2019s 49.2. Contributing to the beat were new orders, prices, production and exports, which sported scores of 55.1, 54.9, 52.5 and 52.4. Helping at more modest degrees were imports, deliveries and employment. The uptick in transactions allowed goods producers to work down their backlogs as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n New single-family residential investments and office building capital expenditures drove a beat in this morning\u2019s construction spending report from the Census Bureau. December outlays rose 0.5% month over month (m\/m), surpassing the 0.2% forecast, which would\u2019ve been unchanged from November. It marked the third-consecutive month of advancement. New single-family investments led the charge, rising 1% m\/m and were followed by the office and highway and street segments, which added 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. The water supply classification, conservation\/development category, sewage\/waste disposal segment and new multifamily capital expenditures sector weighed on results, however, dropping 2.5%,1.7%, 1.3% and 0.3% m\/m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n EU prices turned south last month as weak demand across the continent led to reduced bargaining power for servicers and manufacturers. Overall and core charges declined 0.3% and 1% m\/m in January, slightly above projections. Industrial goods and services led the discounting with costs descending 2.4% and 0.2% m\/m, but the energy, unprocessed food and processed food\/alcohol\/tobacco categories saw prices climb 2.9%, 1% and 0.6%. Annualized figures came in a tenth stronger than expectations, however, with the headline number up 2.5% year over year (y\/y) while core arrived at 2.7% compared to 2.4% and 2.7% in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The South Korea Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy reported that January shipments to foreign markets plummeted 10.3% y\/y and imports dipped 6.4%. The weak outgoing shipments was caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year trimming the number of business days. Regarding exports, semiconductors bucked the broader trend, improving 8.1% as higher investments in data centers across the globe supported demand for high-band-width memory products and other items. Automobile shipments to other countries, in contrast, fell 19.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n South Korean shoppers tightened their purse strings with retail sales falling 2.2% last year relative to 2023, the largest drop in 21 years, according to Statistics Korea. It was also the third-consecutive year of falling household expenditures. High inflation, political turbulence and elevated uncertainty contributed to both durable and nondurable cash register activities sinking, with food sales leading the decline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Permits for building detached homes in Australia dropped in December but grew substantially for other forms of residential projects and commercial buildings. The total volume of permits for private sector housing plunged 3% m\/m while approvals for dwellings excluding houses, which include row houses, apartment buildings and group homes, headed north by 15.2%. In terms of values, total residential building approvals fell 0.9% while non-residential building climbed 9.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After demonstrating resilience to higher financing costs, consumers trimmed their outlays by 0.1% m\/m in December, which was better than the 0.7% decline anticipated by economists. In November, household retail activity climbed 0.7%. The occurrence of Cyber Monday in December helped limit the decline in transactions. Gains in household goods, department stores and food retailing were offset by transaction totals slipping for the clothing, footwear and personal accessory group, the other retailing category and the cafes, restaurants and takeaway food segment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Australian home prices dropped 0.2% in January as measured by the CoreLogic Home Value Index. Most of the decline was driven by individuals being priced out of markets in the region consisting of Melbourne, Canberra and Sydney. Other locations, such as Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, showed continuing price gains but at a slower pace than recent months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hong Kong\u2019s economy expanded at a stronger-than-anticipated pace in the final quarter of last year. Real gross domestic product grew 0.8% quarter over quarter on an annualized basis and 2.4% y\/y, higher than the -0.1% and 1.9% from the previous three-month time period and expectations of 0.5% and 2.3%. The progress was driven by y\/y gains of 1.9% and 1.2% from government consumption expenditures and exports, while declines of 0.9% and 0.2% across the gross domestic fixed capital formation and private consumption expenditure segments alongside a 0.1% increase in imports capped further momentum. The weakness in Hong Kong consumption was also reflected in a separate retail sales report for December. Transactions slid 11.5% y\/y, accelerating south from November\u2019s 8.4% drop. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Tyson Foods (TSN) posted earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations and raised its full-year guidance, citing carnivores\u2019 increased demand for beef and chicken. Sales during the company\u2019s fiscal-first quarter were 2.3% higher in the same period of 2024 and net income per class A shares soared from $0.31 to $1.03. Sustained demand for eat-at-home products and growing restaurant traffic at both fine-food and fast-dining establishments contributed to the strong results. Tyson guided for full-year sales relative to last year to be flat or up 1% compared to its previous estimate of flat to down 1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Markets remain bearish but are performing much better than earlier as equites pare more than half of their morning losses. Similarly, progress on trade has the dollar trimming its gains significantly. Meanwhile, the yield curve is flattening in a bifurcated manner, as IBKR Forecast Traders envision a narrower path to rate cuts on the horizon, but global uncertainty is generating safe haven demand, which is benefiting the long end. Similarly, commodities are catching bids and gold made a fresh all-time high as market participants brace for the potential for a wider scale quarrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/replacement-chart.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nReal Estate Investments Stronger than Expected<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"US](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture3.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nEurope Prices Decline<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
South Korean Exports Weaken<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
And Households Crimp Spending<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Australia\u2019s Commercial Building Permits Jump<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Australia Retailing Sinks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
And Dwelling Prices Weaken<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Hong Kong\u2019s Economy Accelerates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Consumers Go Hog Wild for Meat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Relief Rally Strives for Break-Even Point<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Forecast](\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/02\/Picture4-1100x91.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n