{"id":217876,"date":"2025-01-28T09:58:16","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T14:58:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=217876"},"modified":"2025-01-29T03:35:08","modified_gmt":"2025-01-29T08:35:08","slug":"chart-advisor-will-rising-commodities-derail-the-fed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-will-rising-commodities-derail-the-fed\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Will Rising Commodities Derail the FED?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/\u00a0Will Rising Commodities Derail the FED?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ The Line is the Sand for the S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/\u00a0Don\u2019t Sleep on Duration<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Will Rising Commodities Derail the FED?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Inflation remains the market\u2019s primary focus, with investors clinging to hopes of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is starting to tell a different story. While CPI has been increasing at a slower rate year-over-year, commodity prices appear to be breaking out of a two-year downtrend, a divergence that could signal renewed inflation risks. If this trend holds, it may dash hopes for rate cuts in 2025 and trigger heightened market volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market\u2019s reliance on low rates highlights a broader behavioral issue: the addiction to easy monetary policy. As commodity prices inch higher, it\u2019s a reminder that inflation isn\u2019t just about the Fed\u2019s moves, it\u2019s also about supply and demand dynamics in key markets like energy and metals. Investors would be wise to monitor these trends closely and focus on building resilience in their portfolios, as any resurgence in inflation could upend the current narrative and challenge assumptions about what lies ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Line is the Sand for the S&P 500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

AI Shake-Up Sends Shockwaves Through Broader Indices<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big news in the AI space is rattling markets today, putting the S&P 500 at a critical juncture. The index is testing its middle Bollinger Band at 5958.45, a level it needs to hold to avoid more downside. If it doesn\u2019t, we could see a move toward the lower band at 5785.94, a roughly 3.7% drop from Monday\u2019s intraday high of 6011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This kind of action isn\u2019t unfamiliar. Over the past six months, similar pullbacks have played out. When the lower band was tested in September and October, it held, but in July and December, it gave way. What happens this time could offer important clues about where the market is headed next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As always, staying focused on these levels will be key.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Don\u2019t Sleep on Duration<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Treasuries Rally as AI Concerns Shift Market Dynamics<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Treasuries are rallying today as concerns grow over a potential shake-up in AI growth projections. The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (EDV), one of the longest-duration ETFs out there, has been quietly stabilizing after hitting its lows. Recently, it held the October 2023 lows and is now finding support near the lower Bollinger Band.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What really stands out here is the RSI, it\u2019s making higher lows with each test of support. This bullish divergence suggests there could be an unexpected move higher in long-duration treasuries, potentially breaking a four-year downtrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The level to watch is the middle Bollinger Band at 74.85. If EDV can break above that, it opens the door for a push toward the upper band. It\u2019s a good reminder not to write off any asset, even in markets as beaten down as treasuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer: Advisory Services offered through Sykon Capital, LLC, a registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.\u00a0This material is intended for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as legal or tax advice and is not intended to replace the advice of a qualified attorney or tax advisor.\u00a0 The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third party sources and is believed to be reliable as of the date of this report. Past performance is not indicative of future returns and diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss in a declining market. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—
Originally published 28th January 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC 1\/\u00a0Will Rising Commodities Derail the FED? 2\/ The Line is the Sand for the S&P 500 3\/\u00a0Don\u2019t Sleep on Duration Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter. \u00a0The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":217880,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14,15,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[7124,217,16065,910],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-217876","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-commodities","8":"category-etfs","9":"category-fixed-income","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-technical-analysis","16":"category-text-articles","17":"category-traders-insight","18":"tag-bollinger-band","19":"tag-cpi","20":"tag-edv","21":"tag-sp-500","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: Will Rising Commodities Derail the FED?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Inflation remains the market\u2019s primary focus, with investors clinging to hopes of continued rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. 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