{"id":217755,"date":"2025-01-24T03:24:29","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T08:24:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=217755"},"modified":"2025-01-27T03:53:55","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T08:53:55","slug":"chart-advisor-the-sp-500-breakdown-alert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-the-sp-500-breakdown-alert\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: The S&P 500 Breakdown Alert!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By David Keller, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500: What\u2019s Next After Breaking 5850?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500: What\u2019s Next After Breaking 5850?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s talk about the big move we\u2019ve been anticipating\u2014the S&P 500 has finally dipped below our \u201cline in the sand\u201d at 5850. And then just as quickly, the SPX popped right back above this key support level! Here\u2019s what stands out as I\u2019m reviewing the chart of the S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Market in Red<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of last Friday, January 10, the market wasn\u2019t exactly painting a pretty picture. The S&P 500 was flirting with lower numbers, and no sector has been spared. Growth favorites like tech? Down. Sturdy value plays like financials, industrials, and healthcare? Also down. Across the board, it was all red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019ve been following along on my market recap show,\u00a0CHART THIS with Dave Keller<\/strong><\/a>, you know we\u2019ve been keeping an eye on the market\u2019s weakening breadth since mid-December. This latest break below 5850 is just another confirmation of what\u2019s been brewing: key sectors are losing steam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why the Close Matters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, after a key breakdown, what happens next? First, we need to confirm that this break below 5850 is the real deal. It\u2019s not just about dipping below that level during the day\u2014it\u2019s about where the market closes. Why? Because closing prices carry more weight when assessing trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

For example, we\u2019ve seen the S&P dip below 5850 a few times recently, only to rally back and close above it. Without a true close below that level, the market has kept the bears at bay. But if we do see a close below 5850, and the market follows through in the days after, that\u2019s when things could start getting interesting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After inflation data came out this week, we saw the SPX pop back above 5850 as investors considered the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months. We feel 5850 remains the most important level to watch, because we are one lower high away from confirming a clear bearish trend for stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Setting Downside Targets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the S&P closes back below 5850 and momentum continues, where could it go? That\u2019s where technical analysis gives us some tools to work with. Here are three ways we can identify potential downside targets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Head and Shoulders Pattern:<\/strong>
    There\u2019s a possible head-and-shoulders top forming on the S&P chart. Even if it\u2019s not textbook-perfect, it\u2019s worth noting. By measuring the distance from the \u201cneckline\u201d of the pattern to the \u201chead\u201d and projecting downward, we land at a target of around 5600.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:<\/strong>
    Taking the August swing low to the December high, the 50% retracement level aligns almost exactly with 5600. This alignment adds another layer of confidence to 5600 as a significant support area.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. 200-Day Moving Average:<\/strong>
    The 200-day moving average, a long-term trend indicator, hasn\u2019t come into play for a while. Right now, it\u2019s sitting near 5570. By the time a potential decline reaches this level, it could align closer to 5600, further strengthening this target.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    When these methods point to the same general area, it\u2019s a signal to pay attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The Big Picture<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, what\u2019s the takeaway?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    • Keep an eye on how the market closes relative to 5850.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Watch for follow-through in the days ahead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Look for key support around 5600, but stay flexible as market dynamics evolve.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      The goal here isn\u2019t to predict exact levels but to stay tuned into the trends and adjust as the story unfolds. And as always, the charts will guide us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      —
      Originally posted 23rd January 2025<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      By David Keller, CMT The S&P 500: What\u2019s Next After Breaking 5850? Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":217756,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[18235,767,910,207],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-217755","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-technical-analysis","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fibonacci-retracement","16":"tag-head-and-shoulders","17":"tag-sp-500","18":"tag-spx","19":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: The S&P 500 Breakdown Alert!<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The big move we\u2019ve been anticipating\u2014the S&P 500 has finally dipped below our \u201cline in the sand\u201d at 5850. 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