{"id":217519,"date":"2025-01-17T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=217519"},"modified":"2025-01-20T04:10:08","modified_gmt":"2025-01-20T09:10:08","slug":"chart-advisor-the-market-doesnt-care","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-the-market-doesnt-care\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: The Market Doesn\u2019t Care"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ Opinions vs. the Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ S&P500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Trend “Predictors” <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ Stocks, Stocks, and Stocks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Opinions vs. the Market<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is the market topping?  Is a recession right around the corner?  What about the upcoming inauguration \u2013 that\u2019ll probably cause the next leg down, won\u2019t it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political opinions have no place in investment decisions.  Same goes for any other \u201copinion,\u201d for that matter. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The market doesn\u2019t care what you think about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Historical market valuations<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Inflation<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Interest rates<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • The Fed, or<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Market concentration in mega-caps and tech<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    The market\u2026 doesn\u2019t\u2026 care. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Instead, what we need to do as portfolio managers is to allow the market to tell us<\/em><\/strong> what to do, not the other way around. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    So, let\u2019s take an objective look at what\u2019s going on right now, starting with my \u201cInverse Traffic Light\u201d chart of the S&P500, and see if chicken little even has a dog in this hunt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n
    1. The stock market still remains in the \u201cGreen Zone,\u201d<\/strong> which currently sits above the two summer highs \u2013 as well as below the two fall lows \u2013 and this is perhaps in spite of the fear mongering financial news that\u2019s being thrown in your face on a daily basis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    2. The bottom of the \u201cCaution Zone\u201d<\/strong> for the stock market still resides at the spring 2024 lows, which took place after a multi-week correction to the tune of just over -10%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    3. \u2026and this is still where the \u201cDanger Zone\u201d<\/strong> sits, just south of 5,000 on the S&P500.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      S&P500<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      For the nay-sayers out there, yes\u2026 there are still some breadth issues that exist when looking at things form an intermarket analysis standpoint. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Furthermore, if we\u2019re just keeping it simple and focusing on the S&P500, there is a negative momentum divergence going back to summer of 2024 that is still valid; and the market would need a nice, sustained, multi-day (if not multi-week) rally in the short-term to negate what I\u2019m seeing in RSI (in the lower-pane).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Trend “Predictors”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      That all being said, look at the chart below\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      The SPX is trading above rising 150 and 200-day moving averages, and it\u2019s only barely bumping its head underneath the 50MA.  Anyone who says this is a major market top is a \u201ctrend predictor,\u201d not a trend follower, and their \u201canalysis\u201d (if you can even call it that) would be no better in Vegas than it is in the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Again, keeping it simple, look back to 2021-22 and notice how the market fell \u201cbelow water\u201d (i.e., below the 200MA) followed by two failed attempts to come up for air.  What we\u2019re seeing in the market right now doesn\u2019t even remotely resemble early-2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      Stocks, Stocks, and Stocks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Last, but not least, here\u2019s another simple look at the major asset classes and a longer-term ranking system.  The S&P500 is unequivocally the #1 runner, followed by international stocks, then small caps and finally, commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Said another way, \u201cstocks, stocks, and stocks\u201d are in the #1, 2, and 3 slots from a relative strength standpoint.  How in the world could this be a bad thing?!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      An early mentor of mine once told me that \u201cAs soon as you \u2018think,\u2019 \u2018like,\u2019 \u2018hope,\u2019 you\u2019ve already lost.\u201d  You can\u2019t say things like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • I really \u201clike\u201d this stock,<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • I \u201cthink\u201d the market is going to head lower from here, or<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • I \u201chope\u201d this stock comes back \u2013 I\u2019ll sell it when it gets back to <this price>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Instead, you have to invest your money based on the current prevailing market landscape\/climate and trends.  Sure, you can add relative strength, volume, and momentum to your analysis.  That\u2019s totally fine \u2013 we do, but I digress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        As the age-old saying in technical analysis goes, \u201cThe trend is your friend, \u2018till the end, when it bends.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        —–
        Originally posted on 17th January 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        Is the market topping?\u00a0 Is a recession right around the corner?\u00a0 What about the upcoming inauguration \u2013 that\u2019ll probably cause the next leg down, won\u2019t it?Political opinions have no place in investment decisions.\u00a0 Same goes for any other \u201copinion,\u201d for that matter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":217526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,18,6,8,9,22,23,26,3],"tags":[2176,8009,669,207,262,6609],"contributors-categories":[13686],"class_list":{"0":"post-217519","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-etfs","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-technical-analysis","14":"category-text-articles","15":"category-traders-insight","16":"tag-acwi","17":"tag-ijr","18":"tag-spdr","19":"tag-spx","20":"tag-spy","21":"tag-tlt","22":"contributors-categories-investopedia"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChart Advisor: The Market Doesn\u2019t Care | 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