{"id":217494,"date":"2025-01-16T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=217494"},"modified":"2025-01-23T12:09:46","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T17:09:46","slug":"hindenburg-lands-the-airship","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/hindenburg-lands-the-airship\/","title":{"rendered":"Hindenburg Lands the Airship"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite yesterday\u2019s stellar rally<\/a>, I have probably discussed the news that Hindenburg Research is closing up shop<\/a> more than any other topic today.  The obvious reaction was that it shows another bear throwing in the towel.  But I believe this situation says much more about that specific business than the overall market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be clear, I\u2019ve never dealt with Hindenburg or its founder, Nate Anderson, but I have plenty of experience trading from the short side.  Short selling is a necessary skill for a professional trader \u2013 especially an options market maker.  By definition, a market maker is continuously posting two-sided prices, so it is typical for someone to be buying options from him at any given time.  Or, the market maker might be buying calls or selling puts, requiring him to sell stock short to remain hedged.  I view a professional trader who is uncomfortable trading from the short side like a basketball player who can\u2019t dribble or make a layup with either hand.  To be truly successful, one can\u2019t be tied to one specific methodology.  As a result, I view short selling as lubrication that ultimately helps the stock market engine to function properly over the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I laid out that philosophy a bit over a year ago in a piece entitled \u201cIn Defense of Short Selling<\/a>\u201d.  I encourage you to read the linked piece<\/a>, but here are some of the key points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is understandable why many choose to demonize the practice of short selling. If there is virtue in buying low in the hopes of selling high in order to support the companies that are the backbone of every capitalist economy, it stands to reason that the inverse \u2013 selling high in the hopes of buying low \u2013 would strike many as unpatriotic or unethical.  But that is an inappropriate comparison. Just as savvy investors seek to profit from finding undervalued shares, short sellers seek to profit from finding overvalued shares. Neither case involves a moral judgment, yet one is often viewed through a moral lens.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short sellers understand the risks, and they also understand that they face significant disadvantages. Foremost is the fact that there is an asymmetry of risks and returns. When you buy a stock, you know that your potential loss is limited to your initial investment but that your potential gain is unlimited. The opposite is true for short selling. The stock can\u2019t fall below zero but can rise infinitely. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next is that short selling is more costly than buying. One can pay cash for stock. The money is spent up-front, no margin interest payments are required, and any dividends are reaped by the owner. In contrast, every short sale involves margin. Legal short-selling \u2013 requires the seller to borrow the shares that they must deliver. Remember, the buyer doesn\u2019t know who is selling him his stock. They only know whether the stock is delivered to their account, not by whom or how. There is a cost to borrowing those shares, and that cost can be quite high. It can, and often does, move higher with little or no warning. That means that the short seller is paying interest constantly, along with compensating the owner of the borrowed shares for any dividend payments. (<\/em>This IBKR Podcast<\/em><\/a>, where I interview our North American stock lending manager, explains the process in greater detail.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And perhaps most importantly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Healthy companies don\u2019t go to zero simply because there is an abundance of short sellers.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet I recognized the following factor, which applied directly to Hindenburg and its ilk:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many people have an understandable distaste when short sellers make unflattering comments about their targets. \u201cHow dare they try to talk these stocks lower? They\u2019re just talking their book.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, that was the feature of Hindenburg\u2019s business model that seems to have led to its founder\u2019s decision to call it quits.  They were activist investors, but from the short side.  They took large positions, then announced them publicly.  At a minimum, that is the distasteful practice of \u201ctalking one\u2019s book.\u201d  At it\u2019s worst, it\u2019s illegal \u2013 which is what the SEC alleged<\/a> in July in a $20 million complaint against short-seller Andrew Left and Citron Capital.  Market practitioners are rarely fans of those tactics (at least when they\u2019re employed by someone else).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, Hindenburg went after some particularly huge whales like India\u2019s Adani family and Carl Icahn<\/a>.  Those are undoubtedly targets who did not go down without a fight \u2013 and their stocks did recover somewhat \u2013 which probably contributed to the Wall Street Journal\u2019s comment<\/a> that \u201cHindenburg\u2019s work was followed closely by regulators and law enforcement.\u201d  I\u2019ve never dealt with law enforcement (thankfully!) but adding close regulatory scrutiny to an already difficult business model must be extraordinarily unpleasant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve often been quite skeptical when a prominent business figure retires to simplify their life or to spend more time with the family.  But in this case, I believe Mr. Anderson.  He\u2019s 40 years old, make plenty of money, and engaged in an incredibly difficult business.  I don\u2019t blame him at all for calling it quits.  But while this might signal the end of the activist short seller model, I don\u2019t believe this has ramifications for the market\u2019s direction, or even the practice of short selling.  We still see plenty of short selling \u2013 our stock loan department is in no danger of closing \u2013 but the days of attracting attention to one\u2019s short bets is clearly behind us.  Too many investors have found success in finding heavily shorted stocks and participating in social media fueled short squeezes. If there\u2019s money to be made in the practice of shorting overvalued companies, it is now best done quietly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite yesterday\u2019s stellar rally, I have probably discussed the news that Hindenburg Research is closing up shop more than any other topic today.\u00a0 The obvious reaction was that it shows another bear throwing in the towel.\u00a0 But I believe this situation says much more about that specific business than the overall market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":217505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,20,22,26,3],"tags":[18315,18314,12374,1584,18317,4496,18316,4241,4109,18053],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-217494","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-short-selling","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-activist-investing","16":"tag-hindenburg-research","17":"tag-market-commentary","18":"tag-market-trends","19":"tag-sec-regulation","20":"tag-short-selling","21":"tag-short-squeezes","22":"tag-stock-loan","23":"tag-stock-market","24":"tag-trading-strategies","25":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nHindenburg 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/zeppelin-blimp-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217494","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=217494"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217494\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/217505"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=217494"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=217494"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=217494"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=217494"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}