{"id":217197,"date":"2025-01-09T12:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=217197"},"modified":"2025-01-23T12:34:50","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T17:34:50","slug":"jensen-huangs-quantum-splash-of-cold-water","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/jensen-huangs-quantum-splash-of-cold-water\/","title":{"rendered":"Jensen Huang\u2019s Quantum Splash of Cold Water"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ask yourself honestly: had you ever heard of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) or IONQ Inc. (IONQ) just two months ago?&nbsp; I know that I hadn\u2019t.&nbsp;&nbsp; Yet for the past two weeks, RGTI was the third most active stock on the IBKR platform; IONQ and similar stocks were not far behind.&nbsp; They had a tremendous, rapid run-up before a few comments from a highly influential source squelched the enthusiasm yesterday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Tuesday, Jensen Huang, Nvidia\u2019s (NVDA) CEO, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2025\/01\/08\/quantum-computing-stock-nvidia-jensen-huang\">made the following comment<\/a> to Wall Street analysts:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u201cAnd so if you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that&#8217;d probably be on the early side. If you said 30 is probably on the late side. But if you picked 20, I think a whole bunch of us would believe it,&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With the possible exceptions of Elon Musk and Warren Buffett, there is no one whose pronouncements <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=oa326fvu5AM\">are currently more influential<\/a> for investors than Huang\u2019s.&nbsp; Frankly, all of them have made a lot of money for their investors, and it\u2019s no coincidence that Tesla (TSLA) and NVDA continually vie for the top slot on our most actives list.&nbsp; And when it comes to anything that involves computing power, artificial intelligence, and anything involving semiconductors, Huang\u2019s voice is by far the most important.&nbsp; Just this week were reminded of it when <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/tariffs-no-biggie-as-long-as-nvda-is-up\/\">NVDA ran up 10%<\/a> in the two sessions prior to Huang\u2019s address to the Consumer Electronic Show, then helped drag the market lower when it turned out to be a bit of a \u201csell the news\u201d event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent frenzy in quantum computing shares began exactly one month ago on December 9<sup>th<\/sup>, 2024, when <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.google\/technology\/research\/google-willow-quantum-chip\/\">Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) announced Willow<\/a>, it\u2019s new quantum computing chip.&nbsp; The chip certainly appears to be a major breakthrough, but even the press release offers no guidance about when it might become commercially viable, <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.google\/technology\/research\/google-willow-quantum-chip\/\">specifically stating<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The next challenge for the field is to demonstrate a first &#8220;useful, beyond-classical&#8221; computation on today&#8217;s quantum chips that is relevant to a real-world application.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The announcement understandably boosted GOOGL shares, and the stock is now about 10% above where it traded prior to the announcement.&nbsp; But having seen the returns that could have been garnered by those who invested in anything involving artificial intelligence, many investors leapt onto the quantum computing bandwagon quickly and aggressively.&nbsp;&nbsp; It\u2019s quite understandable, especially in a market environment that has favored speculation and momentum strategies.&nbsp; Quite frankly, fundamentals can be foregone if a breakthrough technology might be imminent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But we were reminded yesterday that the implementation might be anything but imminent.&nbsp; Several smaller but popular quantum plays gave back most, if not all, of their post-December 9<sup>th<\/sup> gains:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-5-week-chart-rgti-20-minute-candles-ionq-lilac-line-qbts-blue-line-qubt-yellow-line\"><strong><em>5 Week Chart, RGTI (20-minute candles), IONQ (lilac line), QBTS (blue line), QUBT (yellow line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"592\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8-1100x592.png\" alt=\"5 Week Chart, RGTI (20-minute candles), IONQ (lilac line), QBTS (blue line), QUBT (yellow line)\" class=\"wp-image-217200 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8-1100x592.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8-700x377.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8-768x414.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture2-8.png 1231w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/592;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A drop of that magnitude is painful for anyone with a long position in any of those names, especially if one is utilizing margin borrowing.&nbsp; That is likely why declines appeared to spread into a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/wall-streets-riskiest-stocks-are-melting-down-as-retail-traders-face-day-of-reckoning-a2eb2895?mod=mw_latestnews\">wide range of speculative stocks<\/a>.&nbsp; That included many of the most heavily shorted names, which had been among the market\u2019s best performers of late.&nbsp; Heavily shorted stocks often rally when speculation, or at least momentum trading, is rampant.&nbsp; Short sellers usually establish their positions after doing fundamental research that leads them to the conclusion that a stock\u2019s valuation far outpaces its valuation, while momentum traders are focused upon a stock\u2019s movement, not valuation.&nbsp; For better or worse, yesterday\u2019s move was about fundamentals crashing a speculative party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, those who truly were early to the quantum computing story are still doing OK \u2013 or quite well \u2013 as evidenced by the graph below:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-6-month-chart-rgti-20-minute-candles-ionq-lilac-line-qbts-blue-line-qubt-yellow-line\"><strong><em>6-Month Chart, RGTI (20-minute candles), IONQ (lilac line), QBTS (blue line), QUBT (yellow line)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"586\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9-1100x586.png\" alt=\"6-Month Chart, RGTI (20-minute candles), IONQ (lilac line), QBTS (blue line), QUBT (yellow line)\" class=\"wp-image-217199 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9-1100x586.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9-700x373.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9-300x160.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9-768x409.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/01\/Picture1-9.png 1242w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/586;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It may indeed turn out that quantum computing will turn out to be as consequential of a market theme as artificial intelligence \u2013 if not more so!&nbsp; But in the short-term, I prefer to think of these smaller quantum stocks like biotechnology stocks.&nbsp; Just as biotechs are the ones doing make-or-break cutting edge research in hopes of a major breakthrough while GOOGL plays the role of a major drugmaker like Eli Lilly (LLY), one or more of these companies could at some point become an amazing tech leader.&nbsp; But for now, they are highly speculative with an uncertain future.&nbsp; Trade and invest accordingly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ask yourself honestly: had you ever heard of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) or IONQ Inc. (IONQ) just two months ago?  I know that I hadn\u2019t.   Yet for the past two weeks, RGTI was the third most active stock on the IBKR platform; IONQ and similar stocks were not far behind.  They had a tremendous, rapid run-up before a few comments from a highly influential source squelched the enthusiasm yesterday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":201212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[5531,10995,8235,4604,18356],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-217197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-investment-strategy","tag-market-volatility","tag-nvidia","tag-quantum-computing","tag-speculative-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jensen Huang\u2019s Quantum Splash of Cold Water<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Ask yourself honestly: had you ever heard of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) or IONQ Inc. 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