{"id":216596,"date":"2024-12-18T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T17:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=216596"},"modified":"2025-01-27T12:53:32","modified_gmt":"2025-01-27T17:53:32","slug":"expectations-for-the-final-fomc-day-of-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/expectations-for-the-final-fomc-day-of-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Expectations for the Final FOMC Day of 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Some commentators have called today the last meaningful trading day of the year.\u00a0 I disagree, because Friday\u2019s Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rebalancing coinciding with a triple-witch expiration should matter, but today\u2019s FOMC meeting is indeed the biggest of the remaining \u201cknown unknowns\u201d for 2024.\u00a0 Market expectations have coalesced around a 25-basis point cut, bringing the Fed Funds target to 4.25-4.5%; the bigger questions revolve around what they might signal for future meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve heard the term \u201chawkish cut\u201d quite a bit recently.&nbsp; In theory, the committee will allow the expected cut today but then signal that cuts will be slow to arrive in 2025.&nbsp; The signal could come through the Summary of Economic Projections (aka the \u201cdot plot\u201d) and\/or via Chair Powell\u2019s rhetoric during the post-decision press conference.&nbsp; Bear in mind that the last dot plot was offered in September, and it indicated a median projection for the end of 2025 of 3.4%, down from 4.1% in June.&nbsp; Fed Funds Futures for December 2025 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">now center around a rate of 3.75-4%<\/a>.&nbsp; That would imply two rate cuts during 2025 (assuming one today) \u2013 fewer than the most recent SEP implied.&nbsp; It is somewhat unusual recently for the market to be less aggressive than the FOMC.&nbsp; Remember that we started the year with markets expecting 7-8 rate cuts; we\u2019re likely to end with 4 (2x25bp in September, one in November, one expected today).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet the idea of today\u2019s rhetoric being \u201chawkish\u201d is hyperbolic.&nbsp; \u201cLess dovish\u201d strikes me as more appropriate.&nbsp; A hawkish central bank would not be willing to cut rates when:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core inflation running closer to 3% than the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Labor may be slowing, but an unemployment rate of 4.2% is not exactly worrisome \u2013 especially as monthly wages continue to rise by 0.3-0.4%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Corporate credit spreads are near-record tight.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Asset prices are at all-time highs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, the Fed is still biased toward accommodation.&nbsp; It\u2019s only a matter of degree.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Options markets are not exactly concerned.&nbsp; When we look at S&amp;P 500 (SPX) options expiring today, we see the now-customary bias to the upside, with a peak probability in the 6070-6080 level, about 8-15 points above the current index price:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-december-18-2024\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring December 18, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1013\" height=\"445\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-4.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring December 18, 2024\" class=\"wp-image-216601 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-4.png 1013w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-4-700x308.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-4-300x132.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture4-4-768x337.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1013px) 100vw, 1013px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1013px; aspect-ratio: 1013\/445;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, options expiring Friday show a generally symmetrical probability distribution centered around current levels:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-december-20-2024\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring December 20, 2024<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1012\" height=\"427\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-5.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring December 20, 2024\" class=\"wp-image-216600 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-5.png 1012w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-5-700x295.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-5-300x127.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture3-5-768x324.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1012px) 100vw, 1012px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1012px; aspect-ratio: 1012\/427;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, we see skews for near-term options showing the sort of steep skews that imply risk aversion.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/schrodingers-puts\/\">We have recently noted<\/a> that while the implied volatilities of SPX options, both at-money and below-market, are on the low side historically, the spread between at-money options and their 10% below market counterparts are near long-term highs.&nbsp; This is certainly not dispelled by looking at any of the curves below.&nbsp; At least some traders show concern that this week\u2019s moves could be unpleasant, while the one-month options show a very pronounced \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/should-we-say-goodbye-to-the-elvis-smile\/?query=elvis%20smile&amp;query_id=h5lqxSXsR3S32joHketvOw&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=h5lqxSXsR3S32joHketvOw\">Elvis smile<\/a>\u201d:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-skews-for-spx-options-expiring-december-18-th-2024-top-december-20-2024-mid-january-17-2025-bottom\"><strong><em>Skews for SPX Options Expiring December 18<sup>th<\/sup>, 2024 (top), December 20, 2024 (mid), January 17, 2025 (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"892\" height=\"638\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-9.png\" alt=\"Skews for SPX Options Expiring December 18th, 2024 (top), December 20, 2024 (mid), January 17, 2025 (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-216599 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-9.png 892w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-9-700x501.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-9-300x215.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture2-9-768x549.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 892px; aspect-ratio: 892\/638;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking specifically at at-money options in the chart above, we see those expiring today implying a 1.55% move for the rest of today, while those that expire on Friday imply an average daily move of about 0.9%.&nbsp; (January options include the relatively somnolent last two weeks of December in their low volatility assumptions.)&nbsp; The table below, which details the 1- and 3-day moves after an FOMC meeting, starting with the December 2021 meeting.&nbsp; That was when the Fed signaled that the post-Covid monetary expansion would be ending in the coming months.&nbsp; We see that the average one-day move in absolute value terms is 1.21%, which is below the 1.55% at-money volatility for today. (Remember, volatility is agnostic about direction \u2013 it measures upward and downward moves equally).&nbsp; But the 0.9% implied daily volatility of options expiring Friday is well below the average 1.97% three-day directional move, and well below the average 3.58% high-low spread over that period.&nbsp; Interestingly when we screen for meetings that occur during quarterly expiration weeks, as the current one does, we see a similar one-day move, and a wider three-day high-low spread, but a smaller directional move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"959\" height=\"816\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-16.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 Day Changes after Previous FOMC Meetings\" class=\"wp-image-216598 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-16.png 959w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-16-700x596.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-16-300x255.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/Picture1-16-768x653.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 959px) 100vw, 959px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 959px; aspect-ratio: 959\/816;\" \/><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Some commentators have called today the last meaningful trading day of the year.\u00a0 I disagree, because Friday\u2019s Nasdaq 100 (NDX) rebalancing coinciding with a triple-witch expiration should matter, but today\u2019s FOMC meeting is indeed the biggest of the remaining \u201cknown unknowns\u201d for 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":115628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,19,8,9,26,3],"tags":[314,3598],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-216596","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fomc","16":"tag-market-outlook","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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