{"id":216273,"date":"2024-12-11T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-11T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=216273"},"modified":"2025-03-21T14:54:55","modified_gmt":"2025-03-21T18:54:55","slug":"the-juan-soto-stock-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-juan-soto-stock-market\/","title":{"rendered":"The Juan Soto Stock Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Let me get my bias out of the way.\u00a0 As a lifelong Yankee fan, I was not exactly thrilled that Juan Soto signed with the crosstown Mets instead of remaining with the pennant-winning Yanks.\u00a0 But then my anger waned when I thought about the terms of the deal: $765 million over 15 years!\u00a0 Far be it for me to question the valuation skills of the Mets\u2019 owner, Point 72\u2019s Steve Cohen, but I do believe that the bidding war and eventual outcome reflect the mentality of the stock market.
All investments, whether buying equities or signing a free agent athlete, require a careful estimate about present value.\u00a0 In the case of a star baseball player, where contracts are fully guaranteed, the team must decide how much that player\u2019s production might fall off as he ages.\u00a0 Soto is only 26, quite young for a star free agent, but that meant that he could demand an even longer contract than usual.\u00a0 As a result, his contract is now the largest in sports history.\u00a0 It also means that after his $75 million signing bonus, the Mets will be committed to paying at least[i]<\/a> $46 million a year to an aging player who is unlikely to remain one of the best in the sport for that long.
Now ask yourself whether we might be seeing something similar in the stock market.\u00a0 Investors are willing to pay ever increasing prices for their favorite stocks, making an implicit bet that today\u2019s best performers will remain among the best in their league for the foreseeable future.\u00a0 Remember that, at least in theory, the current price of a stock reflects the present value of its earnings or cash flows or future dividends, depending upon which valuation model you choose.\u00a0 But at the margin, the market sets the price, and the premia that both stock investors and team owners (who are often one and the same) ebbs and flows along with supply and demand.
A key method that stock investors use to measure that demand is the P\/E ratio.\u00a0 The company does its thing, making money (hopefully) and developing a predictable earnings stream.\u00a0 That\u2019s the \u201cE\u201d in the equation.\u00a0 The \u201cP\u201d is much more of a matter of psychology.\u00a0 It\u2019s how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings.\u00a0 And currently investors are willing to pay quite a bit for them.\u00a0 The trailing P\/E for the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently about 27, and on a forward basis it is about 25.5[ii]<\/a>.\u00a0 Those are lofty by historical standards.
In the past 30 years, prevailing P\/E\u2019s have been exceeded only twice over an extended period.\u00a0 Both P\/E measures reached nearly 30 at the end of 1999, just as the dotcom bubble was nearing its peak.\u00a0 That Yet the current P\/E reached 33 in May 2021 while the forward P\/E peaked at 31.5 a quarter prior.\u00a0 In the former case, the market turned lower just about three months later; in the latter it was about nine months.\u00a0 As with most fundamental valuation measures, they are not reliable short-term pricing tools, even though they tend to correct in the longer-term.
You\u2019ve probably heard the term \u201cmultiple expansion\u201d, which refers to how much of the market\u2019s rise can be attributed to rising P\/E\u2019s.\u00a0 The current rally has relied heavily on multiple expansion.\u00a0 When it began in October 2022, SPX was just under 3600, current P\/E was about 17 and forward P\/E was about 16.\u00a0 Thus, SPX has risen just under 70% since then, while the P\/E\u2019s have risen about 59%.\u00a0 Thus, the vast majority of the increased level of SPX can be explained simply by an increase in how much investors are willing to pay for current and\/or future earnings, far outweighing the rise in those earnings.
Can this persist for a while longer?\u00a0 Sure.\u00a0 Frankly there is no limit to how much investors are willing to pay for a given earnings stream.\u00a0 In a momentum-driven environment<\/a>, when many traders are motivated by the prevailing trends and therefore the likelihood that prices will go up largely because they have already been doing so, this behavior can continue relatively unabated.\u00a0 That is, until or unless something changes.\u00a0
I hope for Met fans that Juan Soto\u2019s performance continues at his recent pace.\u00a0 (OK, not really). But it was clear that his price was set by the market, since it was reported that the Mets\u2019 bid was not much higher than the Yankees\u2019.\u00a0 Investors need to hope the same for the stock market.\u00a0 But while a baseball contract lacks liquidity, stocks do not.\u00a0 Team owners can only acquire insurance for a player\u2019s health, not his performance.\u00a0 Investors can consider insuring their peformance<\/a> as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—
[i]<\/a> Soto can opt out of the contract after 5 years, which he could do if he believes his value has increased further.\u00a0 The Mets can retain him by committing another $4 million\/year for the remainder of the deal, which would push him up to $50mm\/yr.\u00a0 This means that the Mets also gave Soto an implicit option within the deal.\u00a0 For simplicity, we\u2019ll leave that aside when we consider the deal\u2019s valuation.
[ii]<\/a> We are using Bloomberg data for consistency\u2019s sake, particularly regarding forward P\/E\u2019s<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As a lifelong Yankee fan, I was not exactly thrilled that Juan Soto signed with the crosstown Mets instead of remaining with the pennant-winning Yanks. But then my anger waned when I thought about the terms of the deal: $765 million over 15 years! Far be it for me to question the valuation skills of the Mets\u2019 owner, Point 72\u2019s Steve Cohen, but I do believe that the bidding war and eventual outcome reflect the mentality of the stock market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":216274,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,6,8,9,22,26,3],"tags":[18395,4176,18135],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-216273","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-multiple-expansion","15":"tag-p-e-ratio","16":"tag-stock-market-valuation","17":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nThe Juan Soto Stock Market | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"As a lifelong Yankee fan, I was not exactly thrilled that Juan Soto signed with the crosstown Mets instead of remaining with the pennant-winning Yanks....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216273\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Juan Soto Stock Market | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"As a lifelong Yankee fan, I was not exactly thrilled that Juan Soto signed with the crosstown Mets instead of remaining with the pennant-winning Yanks. 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