{"id":216138,"date":"2024-12-09T13:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T18:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=216138"},"modified":"2025-01-23T12:42:16","modified_gmt":"2025-01-23T17:42:16","slug":"markets-hit-geopolitical-speed-bump-dec-9-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/markets-hit-geopolitical-speed-bump-dec-9-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Markets Hit Geopolitical Speed Bump: Dec. 9, 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Markets are hitting a speed bump today as investors navigate a multitude of weekend developments. Top of mind are heightening geopolitical tensions stemming from Beijing, Moscow and the Middle East. The Chinese Communist Party is seeking to reduce pressure from the incoming Trump administration while attempting to support its ailing economy, engaging in tit-for-tat trade actions against the US while proposing further accommodation to fiscal and monetary policies. Meanwhile, Syria\u2019s Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia today, wrapping up his family\u2019s 24-year regime in response to an unexpected rebel victory in Damascus, which occurs as South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeo is banned from leaving the nation following his misstep announcing martial law. And in Europe, rate watchers are contemplating whether the ECB will reduce its key benchmark by a half a point rather than the typical quarter, as London, Paris and Berlin struggle amidst weak demand, sticky inflation and budgetary discords.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-an-eventful-weekend\"><strong>An Eventful Weekend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>China\u2019s Politburo just announced it would increase fiscal stimulus next year and embrace moderately loose monetary policy. It hasn\u2019t used such language to describe monetary policy in roughly 16 years. Beijing is struggling with weak domestic demand, a glut of real estate and sagging orders for exports, with Mexico having become the top trading partner for the US. Additionally, President-elect Trump\u2019s protectionist policies could further weaken the Asian country\u2019s manufacturing competitiveness. China, furthermore, announced an anti-trust lawsuit against computer chip manufacturer Nvidia (NVDA). The move comes shortly after the Biden Administration clamped down on the types of products the company can export to China to limit the country\u2019s ability to expand its military technology, causing some observers to question if the lawsuit is retaliatory or a pre-emptive move in anticipation of new tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, South Korea appears to be rudderless with President Yoon Suk Yeol facing the wrath of legislators and the general public after declaring martial law and sending armed soldiers into the National Assembly with hopes of taking control of legislators. While an effort to impeach him failed this week, the Ministry of Justice has imposed travel restrictions on the leader and investigators are searching for evidence that can be used against him. In other developments, the Organization for the Liberation of Levant, or Hay\u2019at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), captured the capital of Syria, causing the country\u2019s president, Bashar al-Assad, to flee to Russia and ending his family\u2019s stronghold of the county. In response to concerns that ISIS would use the turbulence to increase its influence in the country, the US launched airstrikes on more than 75 camps, leadership facilities and other locations used by the organization. Control of the country is likely to be determined by HTS top commander, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, forming a coalition among the diverse factions that supported the rebellion, which is expected to be a difficult task.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-investors-press-sell\"><strong>Investors Press Sell<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Asset prices are tilted bearishly with the cost of capital creeping up amidst losses across every major, domestic equity benchmark. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial and Russell 2000 indices are down 0.7%, 0.4%, 0.1% and 0.1%. Sectoral breadth is deeply negative with 8 out of 11 segments lower and led south by communication services, utilities and financials; they\u2019re down 1.5%, 0.9% and 0.8%. On the other hand, energy, materials and consumer staples are helping to balance things with the areas up 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.2%. Treasurys are selling at the margin with the 2- and 10-year maturities changing hands with yields of 4.13% and 4.19%, 2 and 4 basis points (bps) heavier on the session. The Dollar Index is near the flatline, as it depreciates versus the euro, pound sterling, franc, yuan and Aussie and Canadian tenders but appreciates against the yen. Commodities are bullish on the session with geopolitical concerns propelling, causing silver, crude oil, copper, gold and lumber to gain 3.6%, 2.4%, 2%, 1.3% and 0.1%. WTI crude is trading at $68.75 per barrel as geopolitical worries coincide with improving prospects of stimulus from Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-optimism-for-the-long-term\"><strong>Optimism for the Long Term<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Trump\u2019s embrace of no longer doing business as usual to help encourage US manufacturing and stimulate growth by cutting taxes is likely to be a long-term tailwind for corporate earnings and capital markets. As with many changes in national policies, however, investors are adjusting their expectations, which is fueling short-term turbulence, or Trump bumps, that we have previously discussed. As we explained last week, strengthening consumer spending, buoyant capital markets and wage increases that are outpacing inflation are likely to help sustain the economic cycle and corporate earnings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Markets are hitting a speed bump today as investors navigate a multitude of weekend 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His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2024\/12\/geopolitcs-earth-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216138","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216138"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216138\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/216151"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216138"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216138"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216138"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=216138"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}