{"id":216126,"date":"2024-12-09T14:14:23","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T19:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=216126"},"modified":"2024-12-09T14:14:54","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T19:14:54","slug":"quant-traders-need-to-know-market-structure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/quant-traders-need-to-know-market-structure\/","title":{"rendered":"Quant Traders Need to Know Market Structure"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Quantitative trading doesn\u2019t need to mean complicated machinations with Python and R and stuff Albert Einstein might write on a chalkboard. It can be simple math reflecting how the stock market works.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, back in November I bought three positions in the last ten minutes of market hours.  Longtime readers of our Market Structure EDGE daily notes (find EDGE<\/a> in the Discover section at IBKR), know I prefer buying late in the day, selling the next day. It\u2019s not the only way to trade and I routinely do otherwise. But if you\u2019re stressed by trading, don\u2019t have a lot of time, it\u2019s a solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It works often because roughly 50% of volume in the S&P 500 at any given time is \u201cFast Trading,\u201d computerized order flow with a horizon of a day or less.  I learned that description, by the way, from a high-frequency trader, who described his firm\u2019s strategy as \u201can investment horizon of a day or less.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Genius, right?  If you have great data, and fast machines, you just run in front of everybody all day long.  Then you exit right before the close \u2013 like an off-ramp \u2013 and start over the next day.  Now, you need an advantage of course.  Like Citadel. Two Sigma. Quantlab. Tower Research. Jane Street. Susquehanna. GTS. Optiver. Hudson River Trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And so on.  Never heard of most of those?  They don\u2019t have customers, that\u2019s why.  They trade their own money. Proprietary trading, it\u2019s called.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve told veteran EDGE users this story.  My first quantitative analytics firm, ModernIR.com, was running market data in roughly 2007 for Intel, a customer then (not today).  We were measuring the firms executing trades.  Goldman Sachs had a big portion of trading volume (trades for hedge funds).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then this outfit calling itself \u201cOcteg\u201d showed up.  Suddenly they were doing twice the volume that Goldman Sachs was.  We thought, \u201cWhat the heck? Who is this?\u201d  We\u2019d never seen this firm!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we rooted through regulatory filings for MPIDs \u2013 Market Participant Identifiers.  Go search \u201cMPID\u201d with Google, Duck Duck Go, some AI engine.  You\u2019ll see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we found Octeg and another firm with the same Chicago mailing address calling itself the Global Electronic Trading Company. GETCO.  Put that name in front of a mirror.  You get Octeg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the mystery was solved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was one of the first big \u201chigh-frequency traders\u201d after the implementation of Regulation National Market System (it subsequently bought Knight Trading \u2013 customer of ours too \u2013 when it had a disastrous trade, and you can look that up, and that combo was in turn bought by Virtu, good friends of ours). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reg NMS automated trades, requiring that all stocks trade between the best bid to buy or offer to sell and mandating that any of those \u201cmarketable trades\u201d be automated. In response to rule-changes, exchanges started paying for bids and offers \u2013 the so-called \u201cmaker-taker\u201d market where buying is taking, selling is making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And guess which price is always better?  Selling. The offer!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Well. Humans are smart. Somebodies got in a conference room and said \u201cwhy don\u2019t we build machines that race ahead and sell to people, and then buy from them a penny lower?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And high-frequency trading was born.  We called it \u201ccoupon-cashing.\u201d  You just sell stuff at exchanges and get paid for it.  It became 75% of the stock market in 2008-9.  I\u2019m not kidding you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then everybody including Goldman Sachs caught up technologically and got fast too, and today it\u2019s about half the volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You with me still?  Half the trading volume, give or take, is machines racing ahead just for the day. That volume starts over every day.  And there\u2019s your advantage in being just a DAY longer.  They start at zero. Go.  You didn\u2019t. You started the day before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Got it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So I bought \u2013 actually I bought it, sold it, and bought it again, because I made 25 basis points in one minute \u2013 a leveraged volatility ETF (you can find these). I bought about 700 shares of it the second time. And I bought 799 shares of a SHORT S&P 500 leveraged ETF,  and 60 shares of LONG leveraged S&P 500 ETF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I used MATH to bet short.  Broad Sentiment \u2013 a measure you can see via Daily Trading Ideas (click through a stock and choose \u201cBroad Market\u201d \u2013 was peaked at 6.9.  A topped market tends to stall or fall \u2013 boosting volatility. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

By the way, as I write on Dec 6, Broad Sentiment is AGAIN 6.9.  And I\u2019m again using a volatility bet (because volatility has vanished and the math says it may return).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What if I\u2019d been wrong?  The market is NOT a metronome. It\u2019s a central tendency, just like human nature.  It might go up today, even if the central tendency is down. So I hedged with those 60 long shares. What I was really trying to do was to profit on VOLATILITY. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And guess what else?  Volatility options expired the next day (Nov 20).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It worked. Doesn\u2019t every time.  This is quantitative trading using simple math reflecting Demand and Supply in the market.  Because volatility options expire tomorrow, Wednesday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was able to construct that cagey bet by understanding MARKET STRUCTURE.  The math, mechanics, and rules of the stock market. The market is not fundamental. It\u2019s 100% electronic, 98% algorithmic. It runs on math \u2013 and math is calculable, unlike human nature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be a good quant trader, you need to know market structure, like Citadel et al.  (Join my next IBKR Campus Webinar Dec 16<\/a> to learn more!). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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