{"id":216026,"date":"2024-12-05T13:00:10","date_gmt":"2024-12-05T18:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=216026"},"modified":"2024-12-06T03:51:27","modified_gmt":"2024-12-06T08:51:27","slug":"when-will-it-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/when-will-it-end\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will it End?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Today\u2019s theme music: The Yardbirds, \u201cOver Under Sideways Down\u201d)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve been fielding an increasing number of questions recently that share a similar theme: \u201chave we run too far?\u201d, \u201cis it time to lighten up?\u201d, \u201cshould I sell?\u201d, that sort of thing.  And for better or worse, most of my answers are more elaborate versions of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d, \u201cbe fearful when others are greedy\u201d, and \u201cmarkets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather than simply reducing today\u2019s piece to a pithy series of time-tested adages<\/a> (though many of you might welcome the extreme brevity that would entail), since these are exactly the sort of questions that investors should constantly be considering, we should do some justice to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Momentum has clearly been the most important factor driving a wide range of investment returns, most notably in equities and cryptocurrencies.  At its root, momentum is a trend-following strategy.  It involves identifying a trend and trying to capitalize on its continuation, particularly when the trend is pointing higher.  Considering that there is no shortage of investments that are in the midst of short or long-term trends, it is understandable why this has become an increasingly popular style of investing.  Long, well-defined trends tend to have a self-fulfilling nature to them, something that is clearly in evidence now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But, since \u201ctrees don\u2019t grow to the sky\u201d, it is typical that all trends — no matter how well entrenched \u2013 come to an end at some point.  The questions are \u201cwhen?\u201d and \u201chow?\u201d.  The how is the easier part, if only marginally so.  Trends are like Newton\u2019s First Law<\/a> \u2013 a market in motion will tend to stay in motion unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.  Thus, something arises that interferes with the momentum.  That could be a change in a company\u2019s ability to meet its earnings or guidance, a set of fiscal or monetary policies that change investors\u2019 calculus, or simply exhaustion.  Good luck predicting when those might arise and whether they are significant enough to alter investors\u2019 psychology.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, that psychology is quite bullish and forgiving.  That is why my recent pieces suggested that investors should consider \u201cbuying insurance\u201d<\/a> via protective puts on the S&P 500 (SPX), and that those puts, while somewhat pricy relative to at-money options, are indeed trading with relatively low implied volatilities<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, investors need to consider what is priced into markets right now versus what might be an undigested positive.  It is certainly quite helpful to stock valuations that 15% earnings growth for 2025 is being priced into the S&P 500 right now.  But if we\u2019ve also priced in, say 2-3% real GDP growth and 2-3% inflation, where will the incremental 9-11% growth come from.  That\u2019s a potentially tall order, providing quite a bit of risk for corporate earnings.  And what might transpire if there are increased tariffs (talk of which is being largely ignored right now<\/a>), large cuts in government jobs and spending, mass deportations, or a sidelined FOMC?  All of which could offer significant negative surprises, at least in the period after their announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But with the exception of a change in Fed policy, none of those are likely to occur in the near term.  While there is an FOMC meeting on December 18th<\/sup>, the new administration doesn\u2019t take office until January 20th <\/sup>(and the market will be closed for Martin Luther King Day).  Investors are banking on a market-friendly set of policies, and there will be little to change that perception until then.  I am by no means saying those perceptions are wrong, but instead that the market may be underpricing the risk that some policies might have unintended consequences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are lots of positives priced into a wide range of assets right now.  But think about whether all the good news might already be priced in.  If not, rally on.  If so, some caution is warranted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I\u2019ve been fielding an increasing number of questions recently that share a similar theme: \u201chave we run too far?\u201d, \u201cis it time to lighten up?\u201d, \u201cshould I sell?\u201d, that sort of thing. And for better or worse, most of my answers are more elaborate versions of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape\u201d, \u201cbe fearful when others are greedy\u201d, and \u201cmarkets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent\u201d. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":116504,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14700,18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[625,18080,12324,1383,9056,6435,910,18079],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-216026","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings-growth","15":"tag-investor-psychology","16":"tag-market-risk","17":"tag-market-sentiment","18":"tag-momentum-investing","19":"tag-protective-puts","20":"tag-sp-500","21":"tag-trend-following-strategies","22":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhen Will it End? | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I\u2019ve been fielding an increasing number of questions recently that share a similar theme: \u201chave we run too far?\u201d, \u201cis it time to lighten up?\u201d,...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"When Will it End? | IBKR Campus US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I\u2019ve been fielding an increasing number of questions recently that share a similar theme: \u201chave we run too far?\u201d, \u201cis it time to lighten up?\u201d, \u201cshould I sell?\u201d, that sort of thing. 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/12\/chaos.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216026","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=216026"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216026\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/116504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=216026"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=216026"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=216026"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=216026"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}