{"id":21565,"date":"2019-10-11T14:36:35","date_gmt":"2019-10-11T18:36:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/?p=21565"},"modified":"2023-03-14T09:26:56","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:26:56","slug":"u-s-week-ahead-oct-14-18-ringing-up-septembers-retail-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/u-s-week-ahead-oct-14-18-ringing-up-septembers-retail-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"U.S. Week Ahead (Oct 14-18): Ringing Up September\u2019s Retail Sales"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Investors in the week ahead will receive an update on the\nhealth of U.S. retail sales, after some recent concerns about potential\ntrade-related tariff damage ignited corporate earnings fears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the strength of the U.S. retail sector has generally remained resilient to recent headline shocks about bankruptcies and restructurings, certain of the U.S.-imposed duties on Chinese imports<\/a> may now be posing more adverse impacts on domestic retailers, which, in turn, could affect consumer confidence, household spending and, ultimately, overall economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market participants have warned that levies on apparel, footwear, consumer electronics, and toys imported from China, for example, will likely impinge on profitability at several major U.S. firms, including\u00a0sportwear producer Nike\u00a0(NYSE: NKE), iconic department stores Macy\u2019s (NYSE: M), Kohl\u2019s (NYSE: KSS) and\u00a0Walmart\u00a0(NYSE: WMT), as well as\u00a0electronics giant Best Buy\u00a0(NYSE: BBY).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, recent Chapter 11 filings of iconic stores such as Forever 21, Barney\u2019s, Gymboree, Diesel and Payless ShoeSource have spurred jitters about the overall health of the U.S. economy \u2013 especially since consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, consumer sentiment remains bright despite the\notherwise gloomy backdrop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rising popularity of e-commerce, for example, has\ngenerally allayed fears about the failings of the traditional brick-and-mortar\nretail landscape, with mobile \u2018swipe-shopping\u2019 increasingly replacing aisle and\nrack-browsing, while compensating for less rings at physical registers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Amplify Online\nRetail ETF (NASDAQ: IBUY), for instance, which offers equity exposure to\nglobal on-line retailers with at least 70% of their revenues from on-line\nsales, has outperformed the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA: XRT), with\nthree-year returns of 18.79% compared to -0.94%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IBUY includes among its top holdings internet-based mail\nand shipping service Stamps.com (NASDAQ: STMP), travel tech company Expedia\nGroup (NASDAQ: EXPE) and eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), while XRT holds firms such as\nGame Stop (NYSE: GME), Foot Locker and Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Strong Consumer Appetite Strikes Back<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, uncertainties over the ongoing impeachment\ninquiry against U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as developments in trade\ntalks with China and auto union strikes at General Motors (NYSE: GM), seem to\nbe overshadowed by a resurgence of consumer optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It appears shoppers have generally regained their spending\nappetite after a bout of tariff-inspired stomach cramps in September and\ndespite lingering pessimism about the pace of domestic economic growth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

University of Michigan chief economist Richard Curtin noted\nFriday that consumer sentiment rebounded in early October, amid expectations\nfor larger income gains and lower inflation during the year ahead. He said\nthat, as a result, \u201creal income expectations rose to their most favorable level\nin two decades.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Curtin highlighted that while uncertainties over trade policies have continued to \u201cdepress economic prospects, its negative impact has slightly lessened\u201d in the latest consumer survey (cited by 29%, down from 36%). \u201cImportantly, the impeachment inquiry has not had a significant negative impact on economic prospect; it was negatively mentioned by about half as many as negatively mentioned the GM strike (3% versus 5%).\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He added that, overall, the data indicate that \u201cconsumption\nspending will be strong enough to offset weakness in business investment\nspending so as to keep the economy expanding into 2020,\u201d however a long list of\nuncertainties will generally keep consumers cautious and focused on \u201cpotential\nthreats to their prevailing optimism about inflation, unemployment, incomes,\nand interest rates as well as foster continued vigilance on the level of their\nindebtedness.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Calendar<\/strong><\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Against this backdrop, investors Wednesday will receive\nfresh retail sales figures for September after August\u2019s reading signaled\nongoing consumer spending strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wednesday, October 16<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Retail Sales\n MoM (Sept)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. retail and food\nservices sales for August amounted to a little more than US$526bn, a 0.4% rise\nover the prior month, and an increase of 4.1% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Retail trade sales were also up 0.6% from July 2019, and 4.6%\nabove last year, while non-store retailers were up 16.0% from August 2018, and\nmotor vehicles and parts dealers were up 6.8% from last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Jefferies economists Ward McCarthy and Thomas Simons noted\nthat the non-store retail sales results were \u201cparticularly striking because the\nprior month\u2019s sales were boosted by Amazon Prime Day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cThere was good reason to expect that we would see a\ndecline\u201d in non-store retail sales in August, but instead the figures marked\nthe fourth straight month of \u201chealthy\u201d gains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Non-store retail sales, a major contributor to the headline\nnumber, have been up 2.3%, 2.1%, 1.7%, and 1.6% in each of the past four\nmonths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However,\nJefferies also pointed out that, on the other side of the coin, furniture sales\nfell 0.5%, clothing sales shed 0.9%, department store sales plunged 1.1%, and\neating & drinking establishment sales declined 1.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    McCarthy and Simons added that the bottom line on the August data is that consumer spending \u201cremains solid and will be a significant source of growth to GDP again in Q3.” <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In Q2, the consumer drove headline growth with 4.7% PCE\ngrowth, the biggest quarterly increase since Q4 2014 and the second biggest\nsince Q3 2003. Jefferies said that following that up with \u201ca strong Q3 looked\nto be a tough task, but the early Q3 retail sales data show that the consumer\nis up to it.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors will likely be watching the upcoming retail sales\nreport for any signs of a shift in consumer spending behavior, amid broader\nconcerns about overall GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the\nIBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and\nearnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Investors in the week ahead will receive an update on the health of U.S. retail sales, after some recent concerns about potential trade-related tariff damage ignited corporate earnings fears. The strength of the U.S. retail sector has generally remained resilient to recent headline shocks.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21583,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[149,1214,150,4379,728,4381,3340,3046,652,4384,1546,4383,568,4376,1212,4382,1494],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":{"0":"post-21565","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"tag-amzn","14":"tag-bby","15":"tag-ebay","16":"tag-expe","17":"tag-gm","18":"tag-ibuy","19":"tag-kss","20":"tag-m","21":"tag-nke","22":"tag-onln","23":"tag-retail-sales","24":"tag-stmp","25":"tag-u-s","26":"tag-urbn","27":"tag-wmt","28":"tag-xbuy","29":"tag-xrt","30":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nU.S. 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