{"id":215590,"date":"2024-11-26T10:49:32","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T15:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=215590"},"modified":"2024-11-26T10:59:46","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T15:59:46","slug":"the-power-of-prediction-inside-ibkrs-innovative-forecastex-platform","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/podcasts\/ibkr-podcasts\/the-power-of-prediction-inside-ibkrs-innovative-forecastex-platform\/","title":{"rendered":"The Power of Prediction: Inside IBKR\u2019s Innovative ForecastEx Platform"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Join Andrew Wilkinson and IBKR Senior Economist Jose Torres as they explore ForecastEx, Interactive Brokers\u2019 groundbreaking prediction platform. Learn how this innovative tool empowers investors to leverage data and market insights to make smarter, more profitable decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<iframe title=\"The Power of Prediction: Inside IBKR\u2019s Innovative ForecastEx Platform\" allowtransparency=\"true\" height=\"150\" width=\"100%\" style=\"border: none; min-width: min(100%, 430px);height:150px;\" scrolling=\"no\" data-name=\"pb-iframe-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.podbean.com\/player-v2\/?i=vkdzt-17501bb-pb&#038;from=pb6admin&#038;share=1&#038;download=1&#038;rtl=0&#038;fonts=Arial&#038;skin=1b1b1b&#038;font-color=ffffff&#038;logo_link=episode_page&#038;btn-skin=c73a3a\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-208\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 208<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Welcome to this IBKR podcast, and here to talk about ForecastEx is IBKR&#8217;s Senior Economist, Jose Torres. Welcome, Jose. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hi, Andrew. Doing great. Hello, everyone. How are you?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m doing well, mate. We&#8217;re going to talk today about ForecastEx, which is Interactive Brokers&#8217; innovative new platform where investors can make a wager on the outcome of a particular event. We saw an incredible amount of business around the recent US election. Can you give us some sense of the number of contracts traded there? How did that market turn out, Jose?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-0\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sure. The market was buoyant. We had over 500 million contracts traded. This is a new product that was launched a few months ago in the second half of 2024. So, we&#8217;re happy to see that a lot of folks came in to participate in the Harris versus Trump contract, but also the composition of Congress\u2014both the House and the Senate\u2014as well as specific senatorial races and specific states, whether Harris or Trump would win in those.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We had a lot of success with the election contracts\u2014big contract volumes\u2014but we don&#8217;t just have election contracts. We have other significant contracts as well: economic indicators mainly, including Payrolls, Consumer Price Index, Unemployment Rate, Initial Unemployment Claims, Retail Sales, GDP, Fed Funds, among others.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We are looking to boost interest in the economic indicators. They are great to have alongside an investment portfolio, specifically if the portfolio manager needs to hedge specific risks as they pertain to the economy. If their portfolio is sensitive to higher inflation readings, low growth readings, or rising layoffs, they can take positions there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some newer initiatives that I&#8217;ve been leading here at Interactive Brokers include a weekly pick, which we&#8217;re calling ForecastEx Picks. Essentially, what I do is look at all the contracts we have settling that week. This week it was Housing Starts; last week it was the Producer Price Index.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We started last week, and my background is number crunching. I worked in the federal government for seven years at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, so I understand how these figures are calculated and published. I believe I have an edge in watching the spreads on the ForecastTrader dashboard. So, I&#8217;m looking at everything to see where the most compelling contract of the week is. That\u2019s called ForecastEx Picks. So far, we&#8217;ve been publishing it on LinkedIn and on Twitter.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Okay, so as an economist, Jose, you keep a keen eye on the forthcoming data releases. I&#8217;m guessing you&#8217;re not always in agreement with the consensus. I think what you looked at this week was the Housing Starts number, and you did some analysis on that. The market consensus, which is effectively like the at-the-money option where there&#8217;s a 50\/50 chance of hitting the economist forecast, was 1.34 million. So, you went away and did what? You looked at a threshold lower than that to look at the pricing. Just explain the mechanism there.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-1\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely. With Housing Starts, sometimes with ForecastEx and Wall Street, we have a discrepancy in expectations, and I look for that. That&#8217;s one of my main screens because when we have a discrepancy in expectations, I can gauge where I&#8217;m at and where there&#8217;s a particular edge.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week, I found the edge with Housing Starts because Wall Street was expecting a figure of 1.33 million seasonally adjusted annualized units. ForecastTrader, however, was offering 61% odds of a number higher than 1.298 million, which is much lower. Additionally, 1.298 million would have been the second-lightest figure since the pandemic. Only one was lighter, which was last July.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the dynamics in the real estate market\u2014where exuberance has been, particularly with builders and improving sentiment\u2014I didn\u2019t expect construction activity to fall off a cliff. So, I communicated that it was very likely the figure would be much higher than 1.298 million. In fact, it was probably closer to 90%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A lot of times, I\u2019m looking at the threshold in ForecastEx. I look at what the &#8220;Yes&#8221; is priced at; in this case, it was priced at 61%. My probability was closer to 90%. That was an easy pick for this week&#8217;s ForecastEx, so we communicated that&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-2\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, we saw a very compelling opportunity with the Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks wholesale prices. Commodity prices were rising during the period, as were services costs\u2014commodities excluding oil, by the way.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The threshold in ForecastEx was at 1.3% year-over-year, but the Wall Street consensus was 2.2% or 2.3% off the top of my head. Big spread! Essentially, forecast traders were expecting a huge drop in wholesale prices month-over-month from September to October. That just really wasn\u2019t in the cards. In fact, to get to 1.3%, you would have needed a 0.7% month-over-month decline. What we got instead was a 0.2% increase, and the figure came in at 2.3%. It was a good ForecastEx opportunity in that case, allowing folks to pay roughly 76 cents and collect a dollar\u2014a return in excess of 20%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, how does an investor participate in ForecastEx, Jose?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-3\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">They can visit us at interactivebrokers.com, go to the ForecastTrader tab, and request permission. Usually, permissions are granted within 24 hours, and they can immediately participate in our marketplace in the forecast contract universe. Investors can start small\u2014contracts are priced at 61 cents, 50 cents, even as low as 40 cents. A small order might be 10 contracts, which could be $5.00 or $50.00. But we also saw large orders during the presidential election\u2014million-dollar orders, millions of contracts at a time.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s how ForecastEx differentiates itself: it\u2019s a space for small players, big players, and medium-sized players alike. You even collect interest on longer-duration contracts. With shorter durations\u2014say, a contract that settles tomorrow or the next day\u2014you collect less interest. But with longer-duration contracts related to existential questions like climate change or national debt, there\u2019s more potential. For example, will temperatures increase significantly in the next 10 years? Or what will happen with the national debt? These longer-term contracts can be particularly attractive.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Among the data you\u2019re watching, some of these are weekly jobless claims, while others are monthly, quarterly, or even annual. Which ones do you find most critical or easiest to interpret?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-4\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I like the Producer Price Index because I\u2019m a commodity watcher. Folks who follow commodity prices usually have a much better handle on the PPI. When you compare it to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is much more widely followed, there\u2019s often a discrepancy. Wall Street tends to get the CPI almost right, but for the PPI, they can be off by 30, 40, or even 50 basis points. That\u2019s always interesting to me.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Contracts that are less widely followed sometimes offer unique opportunities because participants and analysts aren\u2019t as focused on them. That creates room for someone who knows how to calculate probabilities and find an edge. That\u2019s what I aim to bring with the weekly ForecastEx Picks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are also arbitrage opportunities. For example, in December, there\u2019s a chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points\u2014or they might hold steady. By comparing the odds in IBKR ForecastTrader with Fed Funds Futures, you can spot differences and arbitrage those probabilities. Similarly, CPI contracts can be cross-referenced with breakevens in the bond market. For those familiar with navigating futures markets, these tools can be invaluable.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We\u2019re also introducing international indicators, like data from Hong Kong and Singapore, and we plan to expand this offering.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Very good. Jose, you\u2019re putting out your weekly ForecastEx Pick on the IBKR landscape, which is part of Traders Insight. Let the audience know where they can find that.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-5\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Absolutely. You can find it on the IBKR Campus, Traders Insight, and the main page of Interactive Brokers under Education. Alternatively, you can search for \u201cTraders Insight\u201d or \u201cJose Torres Interactive Brokers\u201d on your preferred search engine, and it will pop up quickly.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One other initiative I\u2019d like to highlight is the &#8220;Read Through the Report&#8221; series, which starts December 3rd. Two to three times a month, I\u2019ll cover major economic indicators or announcements like payroll employment, CPI, Fed meetings, and more. I\u2019ll do this live on our social media channels\u2014LinkedIn, Twitter, Reddit.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For example, on Jobs Friday, we\u2019ll go live at 8:20 AM, discuss market expectations, and analyze ForecastTrader spreads versus Wall Street consensus. At 8:30 AM, I\u2019ll announce the winning contract and break down the granular data\u2014job growth, unemployment rates, wage trends, and more. I\u2019m really excited about these new initiatives.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jose Torres, IBKR&#8217;s Senior Economist, thank you very much for joining me today to talk about IBKR&#8217;s ForecastEx.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-jose-torres-nbsp-6\"><strong>Jose Torres<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, come join the forecast contract universe. Thank you.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-5\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Very good. Thanks, everybody. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Join Andrew Wilkinson and IBKR Senior Economist Jose Torres as they explore ForecastEx, Interactive Brokers\u2019 groundbreaking prediction platform. Learn how this innovative tool empowers investors to leverage data and market insights to make smarter, more profitable decisions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":215591,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[10842,13857],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[13576],"class_list":["post-215590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-podcasts","category-podcasts","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Power of Prediction: Inside IBKR\u2019s Innovative ForecastEx Platform<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Join Andrew Wilkinson and IBKR Senior Economist Jose Torres as they explore ForecastEx, Interactive Brokers\u2019 groundbreaking prediction platform. 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