{"id":215177,"date":"2024-11-15T09:55:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T14:55:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=215177"},"modified":"2024-11-18T04:04:06","modified_gmt":"2024-11-18T09:04:06","slug":"chart-advisor-exploring-sentiment-analysis-with-stocktwits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-exploring-sentiment-analysis-with-stocktwits\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Exploring Sentiment Analysis with Stocktwits"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Tom Bruni, CMT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/ When Attention Leads Price<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2\/ Social Users Ditch SMCI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/ Doing it Again in DogeCoin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4\/ $SAVA Sentiment in Action<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When Attention Leads Price<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With retail investors and traders more involved in the markets than ever, social media data has become a valuable tool in identifying where they\u2019re putting their money to work. Since Stocktwits<\/a> is the largest social media platform for active investors and traders, our first-party data (available for free on our site) is a great tool for identifying opportunities (and risks) in various assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our sentiment data<\/a> is defined both by the level of activity around a symbol as well as the actual content of the messages surrounding it. On each symbol page, we offer a metered score of 0-100 to help market participants identify how bullish\/bearish and how active\/inactive retail is around a stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data is often used as a supplemental indicator, much like volume, to surface potential opportunities before they make a large move in the market and\/or become recognized by the broader media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Our first example of this in action is MicroStrategy ($MSTR<\/a>), which saw a spike in views and message activity on September 9th, 2024, with the stock trending regularly on our site from there on out. User posts were viewing the strength of MicroStrategy as a leading indicator<\/a> for Bitcoin\u2019s breakout\u2026and they were right, with Bitcoin finally following through with a breakout of its own weeks later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

2\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Social Users Ditch SMCI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While retail attention is great while a stock has it, as prices climb (or fall) further and further in one direction, more \u2018attention\u2019 and activity is needed to support the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


A solid example of this occurred in Super Micro Computer ($SMCI<\/a>), which saw a surge in views on Stocktwits beginning in May 2023. As prices climbed higher, so did attention around the symbol, with it peaking at 30x May 2023 levels in February 2024. However, attention levels on Stocktwits fell off their peak levels, and the stock ended up peaking shortly after, too. Now, with prices falling to the downside, message activity is picking up again but is still 30% below its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It shows that, much like a momentum reading<\/a>, social sentiment can be used to measure the absolute and relative attention levels a stock is getting. When divergences<\/a> between social activity\/attention and price occur, that\u2019s generally a signal worth investigating further. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

3\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Doing it Again in DogeCoin<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For certain asset classes, social activity (or social momentum) is a critical factor in understanding the price action. For example, crypto assets like DogeCoin<\/a> trade almost solely on attention rather than fundamentals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The meme coin<\/a> made an epic comeback this year, and Stocktwits users were ahead of both major moves. The chart below shows an activity spike in message volume on our site in late January, which remained elevated until prices soared in March. Then, activity spiked again in September, shortly before the crypto made its latest run to new highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In addition to the activity data, Stocktwits also has polls and other mechanisms in place to keep a pulse on retail\u2019s feelings toward certain assets. Below is our recent DogeCoin poll, which shows that most of our users are either looking to hold the meme coin long-term or waiting until $1 to sell it. Given prices are only at $0.40 today, having this info on how thousands of players in the market plan to trade it is an additional data point to consider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

4\/<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

$SAVA Sentiment in Action<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To help close the loop and provide an actionable example of this, I\u2019ll leave you with a current setup based on improving social data. Cassava Sciences ($SAVA<\/a>) is an embattled small-cap pharmaceutical company that saw a strong price rise during August, bringing Stocktwits message volume with it. Since the initial spike, prices have essentially gone nowhere, consolidating sideways and waiting for their next catalyst. Meanwhile, Stocktwits message volume has also pulled back but remains well above the levels it was before prices jumped. This suggests a continued interest in the stock from retail investors, and the sentiment of messages on the site is in \u2018bullish\u2019 territory as of writing this. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall, this suggests a continued upward bias in the stock, with traders likely to get involved again at the first sign of renewed, upward price momentum. At the very least, it suggests keeping this stock on your watchlist because the social momentum remains intact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

—-
Originally posted 15th November 2024<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Tom Bruni, CMT 1\/ When Attention Leads Price 2\/ Social Users Ditch SMCI 3\/ Doing it Again in DogeCoin 4\/ $SAVA Sentiment in Action Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. 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