{"id":214978,"date":"2024-11-12T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-12T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.com\/campus\/?p=214978"},"modified":"2024-11-15T14:15:49","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T19:15:49","slug":"why-markets-havent-priced-in-a-trade-war-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/why-markets-havent-priced-in-a-trade-war-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"Why markets haven\u2019t priced in a trade war\u2014yet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-market-recap\"><strong>Market recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Equity markets rallied this week on the back of the U.S. election result and alongside a widely-expected 25 bp rate cut by the Federal Reserve.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 rose a strong 4.7% and crossed the 6,000 mark for the first time on record.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The TSX added a more modest 2.1%, but is also flirting with record territory.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-u-s-stocks\"><strong>U.S. stocks<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. markets\u2019 post-election rally continued through Friday, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes both reaching record highs.<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-11-tech-earnings-are-strong-why-markets-havent-priced-in-a-trade-war-yet\/#footnote-ref-1\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a>&nbsp;Investors\u2019 primary focus appears to be on the health of the economy and the effect it will have on their own pocketbooks, with Donald Trump\u2019s victory\u2014and his promised tax cuts\u2014being perceived as a positive, especially for small-cap stocks. The precedent of Trump\u2019s previous four years in office may be lessening investors\u2019 uncertainty about the new administration\u2019s ability to manage the economy, and the election\u2019s clear-cut result has also eliminated any confusion that could have arisen had there been a contested result or prolonged legal battle. With these factors fuelling the investors\u2019 optimism, we expect the market\u2019s momentum to continue through to the end of the year. That said, while investors are aware of some of the potentially negative implications of Trump\u2019s proposed trade polices, including new tariffs, we don\u2019t think these risks are priced into markets quite yet. In our view, investors would be wise to consider ways to add defense to their portfolios, whether through options strategies or an allocation to gold. Our expectation is that markets will begin to come to grips with the potential consequences of Trump\u2019s trade policies after his inauguration in January, when details of the policies will come into clearer view. For now, we remain bullish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: Uncertainty is markets\u2019 worst enemy, and while Trump\u2019s election has provided some short-term clarity, the effects of a potential trade war remain to be seen.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-canada\"><strong>Canada<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the U.S. election, Canadian markets have been up, but not to the same extent as their American counterparts. We view this as a product of the two countries\u2019 unequal economic footing\u2014the U.S. economy was in good shape and received another potentially positive catalyst, while in Canada, the economic picture is weaker and any Trump-related boost would be indirect. That said, at our Multi-Asset Solutions Team\u2019s post-election meeting, we upgraded our regional views on both the U.S. (from slightly bullish to bullish) and Canada (from slightly underweight to neutral). This dual upgrade is a reflection of Canada\u2019s close economic ties with its southern neighbour\u2014we are, in essence, America\u2019s cousin, and it would be unlikely for Canada to see an economic downturn as long as the U.S. economy is on solid footing. To return to trade: it is entirely possible that the U.S.-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement could get reworked under the Trump administration. However, we suspect that Mexico would get hit harder than Canada in any renegotiation. The potentially negative impacts of Trump\u2019s trade policies are most likely to be felt by Europe and China, and we\u2019ve downgraded our ratings to slightly bearish on Europe, Australasia, and the Far East (EAFE) and Emerging Markets (EM) as a result.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: Canadian markets\u2019 modest post-election bump can be attributed to our close economic ties to the U.S.\u2014if the American economy continues to prosper, it\u2019s likely the Canadian economy will as well.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-interest-rates\"><strong>Interest rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Speaking of the Canadian economy, the trajectory for interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada (BoC) remains largely unchanged\u2014employment is likely to continue to be an issue, and we expect the BoC to remain aggressive. The one major worry the BoC had with respect to further rate cuts was that they could cause the Canadian dollar (CAD) to drop below the $0.70 USD mark. But with Trump returning to the White House, the expectation is that he will attempt to push the USD down in order to make the cost of American goods more competitive, which means the CAD would appreciate from a relative perspective. This effectively gives the BoC the green light to pursue its rate-cutting agenda. On the U.S. front, the latest 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) came as no surprise, and we anticipate another 25-bps decrease in December. 2025 is the bigger question mark. If Trump\u2019s trade agenda leads to higher inflation, that could result in fewer rate cuts. It remains to be seen how Trump\u2019s policies will play out, but in our view, the market may be overestimating the number of rate decreases over the course of next year. If volatility picks up or geopolitical tensions rise under Trump\u2019s presidency, that could further affect the interest rate trajectory and prompt a flight to safe-haven investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom line: The Bank of Canada is likely to remain aggressive on rate cuts, while the Fed\u2019s approach in 2025 will likely depend on the impact of Trump\u2019s policies.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-positioning\"><strong>Positioning<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/a-u-s-job-market-that-simply-wont-quit\/\"><em>Surprise, surprise: A U.S. job market that simply won\u2019t quit<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For more analysis of the economic implications of the U.S. election, see the new commentary by Fred Demers, Chief Investment Strategist, BMO GAM, and Yung-Yu Man, CIO, BMO Wealth Management, U.S., titled&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/trump-2-0\/\"><em>Trump 2.0<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted November 11, 2024 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-11-tech-earnings-are-strong-why-markets-havent-priced-in-a-trade-war-yet\">Why markets haven\u2019t priced in a trade war\u2014yet<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sources<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>1<\/sup><a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/live\/stock-market-today-sp-500-nasdaq-hit-records-as-fed-cuts-rates-post-election-rally-rolls-on-210618586.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Karen Friar, Ines Ferr\u00e9 and Josh Schafer. \u201cStock market today: S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq hit records as Fed cuts rates, post-election rally rolls on,\u201d&nbsp;<em>Yahoo Finance<\/em>, November 7, 2024.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-11-tech-earnings-are-strong-why-markets-havent-priced-in-a-trade-war-yet\/#footnote-1\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uncertainty is markets\u2019 worst enemy, and while Trump\u2019s election has provided some short-term clarity, the effects of a potential trade war remain to be seen.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[18,6,8,9,26,3],"tags":[1685,3598,271],"contributors-categories":[13733],"class_list":{"0":"post-214978","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-macro","7":"category-north-america","8":"category-region","9":"category-securities","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-macro","13":"tag-market-outlook","14":"tag-war","15":"contributors-categories-bmo-exchange-traded-funds"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why 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